it's a mess but...

27 gen 2023

... hear me out

there are multiple reasons that the markets may capitulate starting next week onwards

view my other publications for my directional flow to market

Here I use elliot wave theory to attest to my fundamentals

I use elliot wave theory as a bookmark or 'stamp' to where i assume we are in the price action
What the technical indicators show and price action show are first and foremost and we use elliot wave theory to justify it

You may see some complex and simple patterns here, they are here for a reason

1) YELLOW WAVE TRAJECTORY:
during a bull market you will experience the following elliot wave confirmation: 5 waves up, 3 waves as a-b-c/w-x-y correction
during a bear market this is inverse and it is 5 waves down, 3 waves as a-b-c corretion
as clearly marked, we do not have a 5 wave to upside yet, but I believe one is coming
once we do have a 5 wave to the upside, unfortunately due to this theory, we will miss 'wave 1'. Just the way it goes.

2) RED TRIANGLE MOTIVE
triangles or inverse triangles (known as megaphone patterns) present in 5 waves - a - b -c - d -e - to mark the end of the triangle formation
The E wave or finalising wave has some unusual motives per elliot wave rules in which it can either end at previous wave 5 for a flat (last low at 3500) and cannot exceed the projectional bias of waves a and c (currently around 2700 area)
We believe neither to be true and somewhat of an inbetween so blue trendline marks critical support during spring equinox in the high 32-3300 area

3) FUSCHIA: THIS IS NOT THE END
whilst we believe a great short squeeze is happening in the near future
- but not quite yet -
we believe that max pain is achieved as it always is by markets by 5 macro waves up and 3 macro waves down per elliot wave structure.
Pertaining to this, we mark our current a-b-c-d-e megaphone pattern to end at the 3200-3300 level as WAVE A of primary degree A-B-C structure.
WAVE B to a FLAT trajectory to 4819 or the golden pocket between 4250 and 4500
WAVE C to end 12-18 month into a recession which commences early 2024 in the 2700-2900 region

TLDR;

double bottom or new low coming before breakout
breakout to just be a monumentous short squeeze and catch up to emerging markets (eur and gb stocks made new highs)
only to fail and collapse to a new way circa Q1 - Q3 2025 with sideways choppy action until early 2027 where a new bull cycle nests.