S&P 500 Next Week Expected Move ($76.25)

Strange times we're living in. The more you understand, the less you forgive.
Lies, Damned Lies, and Earnings Estimates

I think we'll continue to rally for another week or two, but this is the last hoorah. A significant tone-change or event is nearby.
Sum of the evidence suggests late July-early August.

- Sentiment = FOMO
market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/nasdaq_sentiment.htm
naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-put-call-ratio-equity-1d-sma-params-4y-x-x-20ma/

- Breadth = Deteriorating
mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/
yardeni.com/pub/breadth.pdf
indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-sp500-stocks-at-10d-highs-lows-params-2y-x-x-20ma/
indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-sp500-stocks-avg-10d-rsi-params-x-x-x-10ma/

- Macro = Nightmare
yardeni.com/pub/bearmktind.pdf
yardeni.com/pub/ecoindlei.pdf
advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/06/26/ecri-weekly-leading-index-update
bloomberg.com/graphics/global-pmi-tracker/

- Fundamentals = Egregious
yardeni.com/pub/stockmktperatio.pdf
yardeni.com/pub/valucbnew.pdf
advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/07/09/market-cap-to-gdp-an-updated-look-at-the-buffett-valuation-indicator
advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/07/08/is-the-market-still-overvalued

- Technicals = Unyielding
indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-sp500-stocks-above-20d-sma-params-x-x-x-20ma/

Best of luck next week,
- RH


Bonus:
- The Fed has begun to slow their fairy dust / Not-QE /
- Kanye is officially a presidential candidate, which argues in favor of a Trump victory.
- Setting new daily record Covid cases every day. There is organic growth, not just a factor of increased testing.
Deaths follow cases by about 25 days. We'll see that soon and the market's and the narrative are not prepared.