Based on comparing the recent market corrections, there is a clear pattern of an increasing megaphone with each successive market drop being 1.74% (more or less 1.68) of the previous one. Based on this, I project three scenarios:
Scenario 1: Market tops at today's levels (SPY 368) and corrects 62% to SPY 144, which is 1.618 of the March 2020 correction (listed as -0.618 on the chart).
Scenario 2: Market tops at 3.618 of Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and corrects 62% to GFC all-time high.
Scenario 3: Market tops at SPY 413, which is 1.68 retracement of the March 2020 correction, and a fall of 62%, which is the previous highs of both the Dot Com bubble and GFC.
I believe Scenario 3 is the most likely.
Scenario 1: Market tops at today's levels (SPY 368) and corrects 62% to SPY 144, which is 1.618 of the March 2020 correction (listed as -0.618 on the chart).
Scenario 2: Market tops at 3.618 of Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and corrects 62% to GFC all-time high.
Scenario 3: Market tops at SPY 413, which is 1.68 retracement of the March 2020 correction, and a fall of 62%, which is the previous highs of both the Dot Com bubble and GFC.
I believe Scenario 3 is the most likely.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.