04/07 GEX + Historic VIX Highs: Extreme Volatility with Options

7 apr

Wow, where to begin? We’ve just come through a week that even the most thorough analysts found surprising.

Last Friday’s brutal sell-off triggered such a massive margin call rally that even the hedge funds were forced to exit gold—which is usually considered a safe haven—on Friday.



The VIX is at a historic high — no joke. We last saw levels like this during the 2008 crisis and the COVID panic in 2020.

📌 High IV = High Theta

When implied volatility (IV) is high, theta (the time decay of options) is also high. This means that maintaining long put protection becomes extremely expensive. From a broker’s hedging perspective, if they are short expensive put options, they can gradually buy back their futures positions over time (all else being equal). As IV rises, this buyback becomes increasingly attractive for them.

Let’s look at our weekly SPY analysis using GEX Profile (Gamma Exposure) indicator first:



It’s definitely not a cheerful chart!

* Below 520: We have strikes dominated by puts. The largest negative GEX “profit-taking zone” sits at 490. If price reaches that level and the support fails (the previous major bottom from April 2024), we could move even further down into a very wide negative squeeze zone, possibly as far as 445.

* HVL zone: 520–546: A choppy area around the gamma flip.

* Above 546: This would signal a +10-15% rally, putting us in a positive gamma zone. However, such a scenario currently seems unlikely—at least based on the gamma levels we see right now.

I won’t sugarcoat it: we’re at levels now where the market could easily move 10% in either direction. So, in my view, forget about conservative option strategies with flat delta exposure.

🤔 What Can We Do?

Important: This analysis reflects my personal opinion only. It’s primarily for those looking to speculate in this highly uncertain environment. If you’re holding put options strictly as a hedge, then this may not be directly relevant to you. In these conditions, the number one rule is to survive—hedges are meant to protect assets or guard against margin calls, not to make profit.

Currently, IV (implied volatility) and VIX are at historic highs. For them to stay this elevated, we’d need new negative headlines and further major market drops. While that could certainly happen, statistically it becomes less and less likely as time goes on.

Buying Put Options …. no way?

First off, there are plenty of challenges if you plan to buy put options right now—most of all their cost. Put options are nearly twice as expensive as calls in many cases.

Does this mean I recommend selling puts or put spreads? I’m not saying you shouldn’t, but be aware: this isn’t for the faint-hearted or for beginners (the risk is high!). It might be worth exploring butterfly or vertical debit spread strategies, as our goal remains the same as always: to maximize the risk–reward ratio.

🐂 If You’re Bullish
This might sound like a ninja move, but one possibility is to buy call butterfly spreads. Yes, the market could still drop—that’s absolutely possible. But statistically, it’s becoming less likely that we’ll see another huge leg down without some form of rebound.

- Slight Move Up: In the event of a mild rise, call spreads and call butterfly strategies can significantly outperform a simple long call. The short legs in a spread/fly offset high theta costs and mitigate the negative effects of falling IV.
- Even with a +10% Move: A long call is often still not the best choice in this environment—even if the option goes deep in the money.

Where Call Spread/Butterfly Can Fail
If stocks rally 15–20% or more and IV also increases (which would be unprecedented in just a few days).

If the market crashes and VIX spikes above 100 (IV would skyrocket, raising the cost of all options further).

Cheap Bullish Calendar Spread
In a situation like this, even a cheap calendar spread can be a good play — the risk is relatively low, especially if managed well and the breakeven range is wide. Of course, if implied volatility drops, the spread could narrow, but that would likely come with a market rally, which theta can help capitalize on.

🐻 If You’re Bearish

I strongly advise against buying single-leg puts, even on a 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiration) basis. If you’re convinced the market will keep dropping, I’d only consider debit spreads, aiming for a solid risk–reward ratio (in my case, I look for at least 1:2 risk-to-reward).

⚖️ If You Want to Stay Neutral / Omni bullish

If you prefer not to pick a direction, you could try to capitalize on historically high IV with a May-expiration Iron Condor. This is the classic TastyTrade approach, with the caveat that you must monitor GEX levels and IV daily and adjust the far side as needed.

Risk Management: If the spot price threatens one of your short strikes, you probably shouldn’t wait around in this volatile environment. It’s usually better to close the position and take a small loss than to hope for a reversal—hoping can become very expensive!

Conclusion
The market is extremely volatile, and expensive options mean traditional strategies may not work as well as they usually do. Stay cautious, manage risk meticulously, and don’t be afraid to close out losing trades quickly. As always, surviving to trade another day is the most important rule.

11 apr

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

Very interesting week, but GEX help us keeping heads over the water