SPY Approaching Apex — Breakout or Trap Ahead? 🔥
📊 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
SPY has reclaimed the rising wedge support trendline and is now grinding just beneath a confluence of resistance near 633.61. This is the third test of this breakout zone, forming a squeeze triangle with lower highs and higher lows.
Key Structure Notes:
* Bullish momentum continues to build on the MACD histogram with rising blue bars and a bullish cross already established.
* Stoch RSI is extremely overbought (96+), which suggests caution — SPY is vulnerable to rejection if buyers lose steam.
* Price action remains orderly and within trendline compression. A breakout above 634 could unleash aggressive buying, while losing 631 opens the door to retest 627–628 demand.
Intraday Levels to Watch:
* 📈 Resistance: 633.61 → 634.20 → 637.00 (key horizontal resistance and fib extension)
* 📉 Support: 631.00 → 628.20 → 626.90 → 619.25
🔍 Options GEX & Dealer Positioning
The GEX board favors bullish continuation — but also hints at gamma traps near the top:
* 🟢 634.00–634.20: 91.11% GEX concentration at 2nd CALL Wall — this is the biggest dealer hedge wall; could act as resistance or gamma squeeze fuel if broken.
* 🟢 637.00: Highest positive net GEX → if SPY pushes above 634 and holds, momentum could carry toward 637.
* 🔴 626.00–625.00: Layered PUT walls and HVL zone provide strong downside cushion.
* 🧭 Net GEX is moderately positive, suggesting dealer flows will slow upside moves unless a sharp squeeze kicks in. Watch IVR (15.3) — low enough to allow scalps but not favorable for selling premium.
🧠 Game Plan & Thoughts
* 🔓 Bullish Scenario: Break and hold above 634 confirms the triangle breakout → target 637–638 next.
* 🛑 Bearish Rejection: Failure at 633.61 or loss of 631 reopens path back to 628.20–626.90 zone.
* 🎯 Suggested Setup: Long scalp above 634 → TP: 637 | SL: 631. Short setup below 631 → TP: 627 | SL: 634.
Momentum is on the bulls' side for now, but you're buying into a potentially crowded breakout zone. Watch volume and reaction around 634 — breakout or fade will decide next leg.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk.
📊 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
SPY has reclaimed the rising wedge support trendline and is now grinding just beneath a confluence of resistance near 633.61. This is the third test of this breakout zone, forming a squeeze triangle with lower highs and higher lows.
Key Structure Notes:
* Bullish momentum continues to build on the MACD histogram with rising blue bars and a bullish cross already established.
* Stoch RSI is extremely overbought (96+), which suggests caution — SPY is vulnerable to rejection if buyers lose steam.
* Price action remains orderly and within trendline compression. A breakout above 634 could unleash aggressive buying, while losing 631 opens the door to retest 627–628 demand.
Intraday Levels to Watch:
* 📈 Resistance: 633.61 → 634.20 → 637.00 (key horizontal resistance and fib extension)
* 📉 Support: 631.00 → 628.20 → 626.90 → 619.25
🔍 Options GEX & Dealer Positioning
The GEX board favors bullish continuation — but also hints at gamma traps near the top:
* 🟢 634.00–634.20: 91.11% GEX concentration at 2nd CALL Wall — this is the biggest dealer hedge wall; could act as resistance or gamma squeeze fuel if broken.
* 🟢 637.00: Highest positive net GEX → if SPY pushes above 634 and holds, momentum could carry toward 637.
* 🔴 626.00–625.00: Layered PUT walls and HVL zone provide strong downside cushion.
* 🧭 Net GEX is moderately positive, suggesting dealer flows will slow upside moves unless a sharp squeeze kicks in. Watch IVR (15.3) — low enough to allow scalps but not favorable for selling premium.
🧠 Game Plan & Thoughts
* 🔓 Bullish Scenario: Break and hold above 634 confirms the triangle breakout → target 637–638 next.
* 🛑 Bearish Rejection: Failure at 633.61 or loss of 631 reopens path back to 628.20–626.90 zone.
* 🎯 Suggested Setup: Long scalp above 634 → TP: 637 | SL: 631. Short setup below 631 → TP: 627 | SL: 634.
Momentum is on the bulls' side for now, but you're buying into a potentially crowded breakout zone. Watch volume and reaction around 634 — breakout or fade will decide next leg.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.