MARKETS week ahead: November 17 – 23

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Last week in the news

The longest Government shutdown in the US is over, however, investors were more concerned regarding valuations of tech companies and probability that the Fed might (not) cut rates in December. A strong correction occurred in equity markets followed with a strong sell-off on the crypto market. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6.734 after a modest rebound on Friday. BTC dipped below the $100K mark, slipping in one moment toward the $94,7K. The price of gold was also within a swing trade mode, still closing the week below the $4,1K support. The US Treasury yields also had a volatile week, with 10Y closing at 4,14%.

The longest ever U.S. government shutdown ended Wednesday evening after lasting more than six weeks. While its conclusion was expected to restore the flow of key economic data that investors had been missing, it has instead introduced fresh uncertainty. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt indicated that some of the economic reports scheduled for release during the shutdown may never be published.

In an attempt to “Make groceries affordable again”, the US President is rolling back tariffs on more than 200 food items, including beef, coffee, bananas, and orange juice, to try to lower grocery costs for Americans. Analysts are noting that this might be the attempt to dig into modestly rising inflation in the US, although the official figures are still missing, due to the Government “shutdown”.

SoftBank Group sold its entire holding of about 32.1 million shares in Nvidia Corporation, raising roughly US$5.8 billion as part of its shift to fund large-scale AI investments, including OpenAI. The move is being used to finance its “all-in” bet on OpenAI and a US data-centre build-out (the “Stargate” project). The news triggered a drop in value of SoftBank shares by around 10% in Tokyo exchange, due to investor concern about whether the AI valuation boom may have gotten ahead of fundamentals.

News is reporting that Berkshire Hathaway revealed a surprising new $4.3B stake in Alphabet, the parent company of Google, marking a notable shift given Buffett’s historical caution toward tech stocks. This investment now ranks Alphabet as the tenth-largest holding in Berkshire’s portfolio. At the same time, the company further reduced its stake in Apple, cutting its shares from 280 million to 238.2 million. Analysts are noting that the moves signal a strategic rebalancing within Berkshire’s equity holdings.

The Czech National Bank has bought $1 million worth of digital assets, including BTC, USD-stablecoin and a tokenised deposit, as part of a pilot test portfolio. This portfolio is kept separately from its official international reserves and is not intended to be actively expanded. The goal is to gain hands-on experience in managing blockchain assets, testing key custody, multi-level approval process, crisis management, and anti-money laundering compliance. The CNB plans to review and assess the project over the next two to three years, to evaluate whether digital assets could play a future role in the financial system.


CRYPTO MARKET

It was a challenging week for the cryptocurrency market, with the majority of coins experiencing significant declines. Overall, the convergence of macroeconomic concerns and market-specific dynamics contributed to a particularly volatile week for cryptocurrencies, highlighting the sensitivity of the market to both monetary policy and investor sentiment. BTC led the downturn, falling to a low of $94,700. This drop was driven by a combination of factors that collectively weighed on the market. On one hand, persistent inflation in the US fuelled concerns that the Fed may hold off on cutting interest rates in December, reducing appetite for risk assets, including crypto. At the same time, broader financial markets entered a risk-off mode, with tech stocks and crypto-related companies also seeing notable declines. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 6% during the previous week, erasing $195B in value. Daily trading volumes remained flat for the week, with $329B traded on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at -1%, with a total funds outflow of $37B.

BTC was the main coin which drag the total crypto market capitalization to the downside. Total weekly outflow was $195B, while only BTC participated with $132B, decreasing its value by 6,5% w/w. ETH was also down by 6,1%, with an outflow of $25B. Solana was traded lower by almost 11%, with funds outflow of $9,5B. This week Filecoin had a stronger pullback of 26%,, while Cardano and Avalanche dropped by almost 10%. DOGE dropped by 6,5% and LINK was last traded down by 7,7%. On the opposite side were only a few coins with weekly positive results. This week Monero managed to gain 16%, while ZCash continued to gain in value, with a weekly increase of 17.6%. Uniswap was also traded higher by 23,7%.

Increased activity related to circulating coins continued for another week in a row. Filecoin added 1,5% more coins to the market, IOTA increased its circulating coins by 0,4%, while ZCash added 0,2% new coins. Majority of other altcoins had an increase of 0,1% of coins on the market like XRP, DOGE, Stellar, DASH, Solana.


Crypto futures market

The crypto futures market experienced a steep decline over the week, mirroring the sharp sell-off seen in the spot market. Both BTC and ETH futures fell close to double-digits across all maturities, as macroeconomic uncertainty and broader risk aversion drove investors to reduce exposure. The move represented one of the largest weekly pullbacks of the quarter, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to macro signals and shifting sentiment.
BTC futures declined between -9.12% and -9.29% w/w, with the November 2025 futures closing at $94,365 and the March 2027 maturity ending at $102,730. The curve retained its upward slope, but absolute price levels are now approaching the lower bound of the medium-term range.

ETH futures posted slightly deeper losses than BTC, dropping between -9.64% and -9.79% w/w. The November 2025 futures closed at $3,140, while March 2027 settled at $3,474. Despite the week’s substantial correction, the curve maintained its structure, signalling that longer-dated expectations remain intact even as near-term conviction weakens. The decline in ETH futures was exacerbated by weaker liquidity conditions and heightened volatility across altcoins, which intensified selling pressure.

Despite the sharp drawdown, the futures curve structure remains intact, suggesting that traders still expect a cyclical recovery once macro conditions stabilize. However, sentiment is now more fragile, and volatility may remain elevated until clearer signals emerge from monetary policymakers and broader financial markets.

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