Side-by-Side Proof Retail Wealth Was Structurally Extracted!

This is not an opinion.
This is comparative math.

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OLD CYCLES VS THIS CYCLE

THEN (2017–2021)

Typical altcoin launch:

- Launch market cap: $20M – $200M
- Circulating supply: 60–90%
- FDV approximately equal to market cap
- Unlocks: minimal or short

Result:

- Public markets performed price discovery
- Clear risk → reward asymmetry
- TOTAL3ES expanded 10×–20×

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NOW (POST-2021)

Typical altcoin launch:

- Launch FDV: $2B – $10B
- Circulating supply: 10–20%
- FDV far above market cap
- Unlocks: 3–5 years, linear

Result:

- Valuation discovery happens before retail access
- Public markets absorb scheduled exits
- TOTAL3ES remains structurally capped

This is not market weakness.
This is valuation engineering.

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EXAMPLES:

SUI

- Max supply: 10B
- Circulating supply: ~35%
- Market cap: ~6B
- FDV: ~16B

Sol-normalized fair value: ~3B

Retail entry conditions:

- ~2× normalized value
- ~65% supply still pending unlocks

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APTO

- Launch FDV: ~10B
- Circulating supply: <15%
- Unlock schedule extends to 2030

Public markets were not designed to reprice APT upward.
They were designed to distribute supply over time.

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ARBI

- Launch FDV: ~12B
- Circulating supply: ~12%
- Persistent unlock pressure

Network usage increased.
Token price did not compound.

This is design working as intended.

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WHY RETAIL HAD NO WINNING STRATEGY

Retail could not:

- Buy early
- Influence supply
- Avoid unlock schedules
- Participate in valuation setting

All paths led to:

- Time exposure
- Dilution
- Opportunity cost

This was not misexecution by retail.
It was structural exclusion.

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CONCLUSION

There will be no traditional alt season because this cycle was designed so that:

- Upside was realized privately
- Risk was transferred publicly
- Protocol success did not require token appreciation