TSLA at a Turning Point. Gamma Flip + Price Breakdown? TAJuly 16

🔍 GEX Analysis (Options Sentiment)
* Key Call Walls (Resistance):
* $322.5: +42.65% GEX — Major resistance and 2nd Call Wall
* $325 / $330: More overhead call resistance
* $317.5: Minor resistance
* Gamma Flip Zone (Highest Net GEX / Resistance):
* Around $320–322.5, price is likely to face supply pressure from dealers hedging short calls.
* PUT Walls (Support):
* $305: 2nd PUT Wall (−17.84% GEX)
* $300: PUT Support (−38.21% GEX)
* HVL (High Volume Level):
* $312.5: High-volume strike for this week’s expiration – significant battleground.
* IVR/Flow:
* IVR is 14.4 – low implied volatility.
* Call bias dominates: Calls 63.9% vs Puts.
* GEX sentiment = 🟥 Bearish leaning.

💡 Options Strategy Based on GEX
* Bearish Play:
* Buy 305P or 300P for short-term swing into the gamma void.
* Best risk:reward as dealers are likely to unwind positive gamma, accelerating downside toward PUT walls.
* Neutral-to-Bearish Strategy:
* Bear Call Spread around $317.5–$322.5 (above HVL, inside call wall congestion).
* Expect price rejection below $317.5 if no reclaim happens.
* Avoid CALLs unless price reclaims and holds above $317.5 with strong volume and momentum shift.

📈 1-Hour Chart Technical Analysis

* Structure:
* Bearish CHoCH and confirmed Break of Structure (BOS) below $310.
* Price dropped from the upper OB and failed retest confirms supply zone around $317–$321.
* Trendlines:
* Descending wedge forming with lower highs and current support at $307.97 and $305.
* Watch for bounce-to-fail retests at $312.5 or breakdown continuation.
* Zones to Watch:
* Bearish Order Block (OB): $316–$321 (purple zone) = Sell zone.
* Demand/Support Zone: $293–$296 (green box) – likely bounce zone.

📌 Trade Scenarios
* Bearish Intraday Trade Setup:
* Entry: Below $309 or retest rejection from $312.5
* Target: $305 → $300
* Stop: Above $313 or OB invalidation at $317.5
* Bullish Counterplay (Only if confirmed):
* Entry: Hold above $317.5
* Target: $322.5 → $325
* Stop: Break below $315

🎯 Final Thoughts
TSLA looks weak and in distribution after sweeping local highs. The current GEX map favors bearish continuation, and the 1H BOS confirms breakdown structure. Unless $317.5 is reclaimed, bears have the upper hand.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.