As of April 3, 2025, TSM has broken down through key support zones following a sharp -5.19% move on elevated volume (47.57M), closing at $157.50. This move marks the deepest downside follow-through since the broader topping pattern began in Q1 2025 and puts TSM at a critical confluence of Fibonacci levels and prior support.
Key Technical Landscape
Current Price: $157.50
Recent Breakdown: Below $163.17 and $157.38 (mid-range support)
I
mmediate Support:
$153.95 (prior structure)
$141.52 – $135.33 (First Buy Zone) aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement
Secondary Support:
$127.24 – $118.03 (Second Buy Zone) and trendline intersection
Anchored VWAP from Oct 22 lies just above the second buy zone
Long-Term Support: $109.05, $98.92, $90.02, $85.33 (1.618 extension)
Levels & Momentum
Price has decisively broken below the EMA cloud, indicating loss of short- and medium-term trend structure.
EMA ribbon has turned downward, confirming momentum shift.
Fibonacci Levels:
0.618 retracement aligns directly with the $141.52–$135.33 zone — a high-probability area for a bullish response. 0.786 zone and 1.0 retracement converge with anchored VWAP and diagonal trendline support around $127–$118, forming a broader accumulation range.
Trendline Structure:
Major uptrend from late 2023 remains intact — current pullback has not violated the primary ascending channel.Breakdown below the anchored VWAP and 1.0 level would shift the long-term outlook bearish.
Scenario Outlooks
Scenario 1: Short-Term Relief Rally
Trigger: Support holds at/near $153.95 or $150 psychological level.
Move: Bounce toward $163.17–$167.54 resistance range.
Risk: Rejection from EMA Cloud or trendline underside could cap the move.
Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback into First Buy Zone
Trigger: Continued breakdown through $153.95.
Target Zone: $141.52–$135.33 (0.618 Fib + local structure)
Setup: This is the first major accumulation zone for buyers; watch for higher volume reaction and bullish candle structure.
Reclaim Path: If support is confirmed, path back toward $163.17 and possibly $175.14 is viable.
Scenario 3: Full Retest of Long-Term Support (Second Buy Zone)
Trigger: Breakdown through $135.33
Target: $127.24–$118.03 (anchored VWAP + long-term trendline confluence)
Implication: Deep retracement into prior consolidation zone from mid-2023; high conviction
long-term level
Failure Below: Would expose $109.05 and potentially as low as $85.33 (1.618 Fib extension), shifting broader structure to bearish.
Summary
TSM has entered a key retracement phase after a sustained trend and breakout failure. The breakdown below $157.38 shifts short-term structure bearish, but two strong buy zones exist below — first at the 0.618 retracement ($141–$135), and second at the intersection of historical demand and anchored VWAP ($127–$118).
Current price action favors caution on the long side until either a reclaim of $163 or a clean, high-volume reaction within one of the two buy zones. This remains a structurally intact long-term uptrend unless $118 is violated with momentum.
Key Technical Landscape
Current Price: $157.50
Recent Breakdown: Below $163.17 and $157.38 (mid-range support)
I
mmediate Support:
$153.95 (prior structure)
$141.52 – $135.33 (First Buy Zone) aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement
Secondary Support:
$127.24 – $118.03 (Second Buy Zone) and trendline intersection
Anchored VWAP from Oct 22 lies just above the second buy zone
Long-Term Support: $109.05, $98.92, $90.02, $85.33 (1.618 extension)
Levels & Momentum
Price has decisively broken below the EMA cloud, indicating loss of short- and medium-term trend structure.
EMA ribbon has turned downward, confirming momentum shift.
Fibonacci Levels:
0.618 retracement aligns directly with the $141.52–$135.33 zone — a high-probability area for a bullish response. 0.786 zone and 1.0 retracement converge with anchored VWAP and diagonal trendline support around $127–$118, forming a broader accumulation range.
Trendline Structure:
Major uptrend from late 2023 remains intact — current pullback has not violated the primary ascending channel.Breakdown below the anchored VWAP and 1.0 level would shift the long-term outlook bearish.
Scenario Outlooks
Scenario 1: Short-Term Relief Rally
Trigger: Support holds at/near $153.95 or $150 psychological level.
Move: Bounce toward $163.17–$167.54 resistance range.
Risk: Rejection from EMA Cloud or trendline underside could cap the move.
Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback into First Buy Zone
Trigger: Continued breakdown through $153.95.
Target Zone: $141.52–$135.33 (0.618 Fib + local structure)
Setup: This is the first major accumulation zone for buyers; watch for higher volume reaction and bullish candle structure.
Reclaim Path: If support is confirmed, path back toward $163.17 and possibly $175.14 is viable.
Scenario 3: Full Retest of Long-Term Support (Second Buy Zone)
Trigger: Breakdown through $135.33
Target: $127.24–$118.03 (anchored VWAP + long-term trendline confluence)
Implication: Deep retracement into prior consolidation zone from mid-2023; high conviction
long-term level
Failure Below: Would expose $109.05 and potentially as low as $85.33 (1.618 Fib extension), shifting broader structure to bearish.
Summary
TSM has entered a key retracement phase after a sustained trend and breakout failure. The breakdown below $157.38 shifts short-term structure bearish, but two strong buy zones exist below — first at the 0.618 retracement ($141–$135), and second at the intersection of historical demand and anchored VWAP ($127–$118).
Current price action favors caution on the long side until either a reclaim of $163 or a clean, high-volume reaction within one of the two buy zones. This remains a structurally intact long-term uptrend unless $118 is violated with momentum.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.