What’s next for Gold & S&P 500?
Having covered Gold & the Equity Index last week, this week we will look at how we could leverage both to trade on the move we’re watching!
Quite a happening market we first covered Gold two weeks ago.
Firstly, the interest rates market had a sizeable correction, with the 10Y-2Y yield now trading at close to -0.45% instead of the -1% range just 3 weeks ago.
Secondly, with FOMC out of the way, we have some clarity on what the Fed thinks of the current bank contagion episode as well as how markets reacted to the Fed’s statement.
With all these in mind, one thing we want to point out is the relationship between yield curve inversions across the different tenures of the curve. Comparing the past 2 episodes of yield curve inversion on the shorter and longer end of the curve, we note a few things here.
Firstly, the 10Y-2Y inversion generally leads the 2Y-3M inversion. Secondly, the past 2 times when both sections of the curve were inverted, we saw a significant sell-off in equities happening soon after. Thirdly, the inversions also marked the start of the next leg up for gold.
With peak inversion likely to pass for the 10Y-2Y curve and 2Y-3M inversion at the all-time low now, we see some potential to buy Gold and sell Equity Indices, as we’re raised over the past 2 articles!
When we use the S&P500 Futures Contract and the Gold Futures contract to view the ratio of the S&P500 / Gold, this ‘Selling’ point becomes clearer!
With the past 2 periods falling 59% and 69% respectively and lasting more than 700 days, this trade could take a while to play out, but the risk to reward seems attractive.
As to the hypotheses of why this relationship might exist, it could reside in the idea that abrupt rate cuts likely merely take place in a time of financial distress, hence the selloff in equities and flight to safe-haven assets like gold. When rates fall off, the non-yielding assets like Gold would start to look more attractive to yield-hunting investors, which could have added fuel to the Gold rally, too.
Taking a conservative target of 35% lower from the current ratio level of 2, we position a short in the S&P 500 / Gold ratio by selling 1 S&P 500 Futures and buying 1 Gold Futures, at the current price of 1980 for CME April 2023Gold Futures (GCJ3) and 4010 for the CME June 2023 (ESM3 ) S&P 500 Futures, the notional value of the position for the long & short leg is almost equal at;
Long GCJ3: 1980*100 = 198,000
Short ESM3: 4010 * 50 = 200,500
Setting up such a spread trade requires some monitoring of the difference in notional value to ensure that the position is properly hedged. Each 0.25-point move in the ESM3 contract is equal to 12.5 USD while a 0.1-point move in the GCJ3 contract is equal to 10 USD. Trading this spread would be eligible for a margin offset of up to 70%, meaning that the capital required to set up this trade is much lower.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/e-mini-sandp500.contractSpecs.html
cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.contractSpecs.html
Quite a happening market we first covered Gold two weeks ago.
Firstly, the interest rates market had a sizeable correction, with the 10Y-2Y yield now trading at close to -0.45% instead of the -1% range just 3 weeks ago.
Secondly, with FOMC out of the way, we have some clarity on what the Fed thinks of the current bank contagion episode as well as how markets reacted to the Fed’s statement.
With all these in mind, one thing we want to point out is the relationship between yield curve inversions across the different tenures of the curve. Comparing the past 2 episodes of yield curve inversion on the shorter and longer end of the curve, we note a few things here.
Firstly, the 10Y-2Y inversion generally leads the 2Y-3M inversion. Secondly, the past 2 times when both sections of the curve were inverted, we saw a significant sell-off in equities happening soon after. Thirdly, the inversions also marked the start of the next leg up for gold.
With peak inversion likely to pass for the 10Y-2Y curve and 2Y-3M inversion at the all-time low now, we see some potential to buy Gold and sell Equity Indices, as we’re raised over the past 2 articles!
When we use the S&P500 Futures Contract and the Gold Futures contract to view the ratio of the S&P500 / Gold, this ‘Selling’ point becomes clearer!
With the past 2 periods falling 59% and 69% respectively and lasting more than 700 days, this trade could take a while to play out, but the risk to reward seems attractive.
As to the hypotheses of why this relationship might exist, it could reside in the idea that abrupt rate cuts likely merely take place in a time of financial distress, hence the selloff in equities and flight to safe-haven assets like gold. When rates fall off, the non-yielding assets like Gold would start to look more attractive to yield-hunting investors, which could have added fuel to the Gold rally, too.
Taking a conservative target of 35% lower from the current ratio level of 2, we position a short in the S&P 500 / Gold ratio by selling 1 S&P 500 Futures and buying 1 Gold Futures, at the current price of 1980 for CME April 2023Gold Futures (GCJ3) and 4010 for the CME June 2023 (ESM3 ) S&P 500 Futures, the notional value of the position for the long & short leg is almost equal at;
Long GCJ3: 1980*100 = 198,000
Short ESM3: 4010 * 50 = 200,500
Setting up such a spread trade requires some monitoring of the difference in notional value to ensure that the position is properly hedged. Each 0.25-point move in the ESM3 contract is equal to 12.5 USD while a 0.1-point move in the GCJ3 contract is equal to 10 USD. Trading this spread would be eligible for a margin offset of up to 70%, meaning that the capital required to set up this trade is much lower.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/e-mini-sandp500.contractSpecs.html
cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.contractSpecs.html
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