Danger: Recession could be on the way - Yield Curve observations
This chart shows the monthly yield curve, being the 10 year US Treasury yield - the 2 year bond curve.
In my previous charts, I had pointed out that 2 weeks after the yield curve curve uninverts that recessions are typically either just started or about to start.
This is shown on the charts by the white dotted line.
While looking at the charts, i noticed that the RSI has a tendency to go above 70 when there is a big crash in the markets - pointed out the previous 3 on the chart as the dot com bubble, 2007-2009 financial crash, and the covid crash.
Note that the Covid crash happened before the spike in the yield curve, and this probably has something to do with the global stimulus that was printed in quick response to the pandemic.
Currently, the RSI is NOT above 70. But it is showing evidance of wanting to break through.
I believed that the tariff war that is going on was not going to be as worrying as the previous crashes - but this chart is showing that we are in dangerous territory.
Will be following this chart carefully
In my previous charts, I had pointed out that 2 weeks after the yield curve curve uninverts that recessions are typically either just started or about to start.
This is shown on the charts by the white dotted line.
While looking at the charts, i noticed that the RSI has a tendency to go above 70 when there is a big crash in the markets - pointed out the previous 3 on the chart as the dot com bubble, 2007-2009 financial crash, and the covid crash.
Note that the Covid crash happened before the spike in the yield curve, and this probably has something to do with the global stimulus that was printed in quick response to the pandemic.
Currently, the RSI is NOT above 70. But it is showing evidance of wanting to break through.
I believed that the tariff war that is going on was not going to be as worrying as the previous crashes - but this chart is showing that we are in dangerous territory.
Will be following this chart carefully
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Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.