Folks know how I feel about very long term (multi year/decade+) outlook for inflation and yields - they are going higher.
And I have called for higher yields (and spreads) and thus dollar so far this year.
BUT BUT BUT
The yield spread chart is suggesting a potential divergent high which could have MAJOR implications across asset markets. Is it fortelling a turn in the sequence of stronger US data? If so then in coming weeks/months we could see:
Weaker data
Lower yields (esp in the front end)
Curve "disinversion"
Weaker DXY
Higher risk assets = stonks, commods (gold silver, Uranium, oil etc), Bitcoin
And I have called for higher yields (and spreads) and thus dollar so far this year.
BUT BUT BUT
The yield spread chart is suggesting a potential divergent high which could have MAJOR implications across asset markets. Is it fortelling a turn in the sequence of stronger US data? If so then in coming weeks/months we could see:
Weaker data
Lower yields (esp in the front end)
Curve "disinversion"
Weaker DXY
Higher risk assets = stonks, commods (gold silver, Uranium, oil etc), Bitcoin