US30 in trouble this week below 31720

18 dic 2022

US30 has fallen on news that Powell and the Fed are keen on continuing rate hikes into 2023. The data given last week- from our CPI report and the following rate hike of 50 pts does have a silver lining - CPI is reporting lower than expected and the fed has reduced the pace of the hikes. However, Powell noted well that although the pace of the rate hikes is dropping, they are not going away. This sent us30 plummeting. If we look on our daily chart, we have a situation- clearly- us30 is out of what was a huge downtrend pattern. However, since last weeks Fed meetings, the bulls in the market are almost no where in sight.
trading above the 200 day ema is key for us30 on the daily chart- but this week poses a pivot point.
I believe the key resistance level above us right now is 33100-33250 while the key support level is 31720-31750. If we slip below this level- and my daily 200 day ema us30 will be in huge trouble. There is also a pending 4 and 50 day ema cross over to the downside on the daily which does not bode well for the bulls.
The quantitative data behind inflation is good, (CPI reporting low AND the feds responding with a lower rate hike than the previous 4 75 point hikes, signaling they are slowing them down) however it is the rhetoric.... the rhetoric that dropped us. After assessing price action through the Asia session and London session I will open short if a NY reversal spikes us up briefly following a downtrend from London. My short will targets are:
32500
32350
32220
32100
31720

19 dic 2022

Nota

In the comments below last night I gave a setup with SL 33080 for an early entry. we hit the 1st 3 targets of that signal and nearly hit our long term target of 32500 today :)