Dow Oversold reversal, The Week Ahead 03rd March '25

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) index maintains a bullish outlook within its long-term uptrend. However, after reaching an all-time high on December 4, 2024, price action has entered a sideways consolidation phase, suggesting indecision in the market.
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Bullish Scenario:
• The 42980 level serves as a critical support zone, aligning with the previous consolidation range and the rising trendline.
• A pullback to this level, followed by a bullish rebound, would reaffirm the uptrend and could trigger upside momentum.
• Potential upside targets include:
44240 (20-day moving average)
44660 (next resistance level)
45000 (key psychological resistance)
A strong recovery from 42980 would reinforce bullish sentiment and indicate a continuation of the broader uptrend.
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Bearish Scenario:
• A confirmed break below 42980, with a daily close beneath this level, would signal weakness in the uptrend.
• This could lead to a deeper retracement, exposing key downside levels:
42520 (next significant support)
41920 (200-day moving average), a critical level for long-term trend validation
A sustained breakdown below 42980 could shift sentiment in favour of sellers, increasing the probability of further declines.
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Market Outlook:
The 42980 level remains pivotal—holding above this zone will keep the bullish trend intact, while a decisive break lower could trigger an extended pullback. Traders should watch for price action signals and volume confirmation at this key level to assess the market's next move.

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