Gold Short Short-Term Trade Setup Analysis (5H Timeframe - IGSB)

13 mar

This trade setup provides a hedge opportunity to capitalize on an anticipated short-term pullback in gold, maintaining a 1:3 risk-reward ratio.

1. Technical Overview

Viewing our previous idea, we initially entered longs at 2834, followed by additional positions upon the breakout of 2880. A hedge was placed from 2919 down to 2880, where we reloaded more longs. Our analysis has successfully predicted precise gold levels over the past 10 days, and this setup remains valid. This so far has given us 3670 pips!

🔗 Previous Idea: [Gold Long Trade Setup Analysis]

This trade follows our broader $3000–$3100 projection, as outlined in our January 16, 2025, forecast. We are still holding longs from a confirmed breakout of a long-term triangle.

🔗 Long-Term Outlook: [Gold Long-Term Breakout of 5-Month Triangle]

Beyond $3000–$3100, we anticipate a major downside correction toward $2350, aligning with our December 16, 2024, macro gold projection. However, this is something we will consider more closely at the time Gold approaches these levels. Generally, we never bet against Gold and would rather sit on the side lines until confirmation of long term direction is determined.

🔗 Macro Gold Projection: [Gold Monthly View – A Crash from April 2025 to Aug 2027]

1. Fundamental Analysis

• Geopolitical Stability: The potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the coming weeks could reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to short-term pullbacks.
  
• Inflation & Interest Rates: With inflation moderating, central banks are expected to pause or cut rates in mid-2025, which may push gold higher due to a weaker dollar and lower yields.
  
• Central Bank Demand: Major central banks, particularly China and India, are aggressively accumulating gold reserves, supporting our $3000+ target before any long-term correction.
  

1. Current Trade Plan

📌 Hedge Long Positions With A Short: $2975
📌 Short Hedge Stop Loss: $2991
📌 Take Profit 1: $2942
📌 Take Profit 2: $2920
📌 Re-enter Longs: If price retraces to key support at $2919, we will accumulate further positions.

🚀 Final Target: $3000–$3100 before a major correction toward $2350.

With the current short being a success, and adding more positions to our longs the total pips since the 3rd of March for Gold will be 5870!!

This short-term short setup follows our multi-timeframe analysis, ensuring both short-term and long-term traders benefit from precise execution levels.

📌 If price breaks above our shorts stop loss set at 2991, we will close our laptop and allow the our longs to reach their final targets.

13 mar

Trade attivo

Trade entered at 2977.

14 mar

Nota

Position remains open after moving stop to 3008 last night. Unfortunately didn't update on here since no comments or interactions from the idea. So if your position was closed you have two options 1. enter a new hedge below 2880 targeting the same levels. Or 2. you can wait out this potential pullback, keeping the original Long positions open, heading towards 3060-3100.