USD/CAD..1Week chart pattern.

2 giu

potentially significant breakdown on the USDCAD weekly chart—if price has decisively broken below a long-standing ascending trendline, that can be a strong signal of trend reversal or deeper correction.

Let's assess your trade setup:


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🟦 Trade Plan Summary

Entry: Short at 1.3700 (current position)

Trigger: Confirmation of trendline break

1st Target (TP1): 1.3020

2nd Target (TP2): 1.2500

Stop Loss (Suggested): Ideally somewhere above 1.3750–1.3800, depending on volatility/tolerance.



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📊 Technical Breakdown

1. Trendline Break (Weekly):

If the trendline held since 2021–2022 was broken, this confirms a structural shift.

Weekly closes below the trendline reinforce the signal; daily retests that reject it would strengthen your case.



2. 1.3020 Target Zone:

This is a strong support area, previously tested multiple times (May 2023 and early 2022).

It aligns with fib retracement zones and horizontal demand.



3. 1.2500 Target:

A more aggressive downside target, likely needing a strong USD selloff or major CAD strength (e.g., oil rally or BoC hawkishness).





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🔍 Key Considerations

Risk-Reward: From 1.3700 to 1.2500 is a 1,200 pip move. Even to 1.3020 gives ~680 pips. Depending on SL, this can be a 3–6:1 RR.

CAD Drivers:

Crude oil strength boosts CAD.

Watch Bank of Canada rate decisions and inflation data.


USD Factors:

A shift in Fed tone toward rate cuts will weaken USD.

Upcoming NFP, CPI, and Fed meetings are key.




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✅ Trade Management Tip

If price breaks decisively below 1.3600 with strong volume and doesn't reclaim that level, consider:

Scaling in (if not fully positioned),

Trailing stop loss as it approaches 1.3300 (mid-support),

Taking partial profit at 1.3020 and letting the rest ride to 1.2500.


Would you like a chart analysis or trade calculator for this setup? I can also generate a chart with key levels marked if you upload your chart screenshot or describe the trendline.

2 giu

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