A sharp rebound off support triggered an outside-weekly reversal from the monthly low, and focus now shifts to a breakout of last-week’s range for guidance on the next directional move.
Support remains unchanged at 1.3978-1.4019- a region defined by the 2022 swing high, the November open, The May high, the 52-week moving average and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the July channel line converges on this threshold next month and a break / close below would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and that a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support seen at the 2022 high-week close (HWC) at 1.3881 and is backed by the 2025 low-week closed (LWC) at 1.3734.
A break above last week’s range exposes the next key technical hurdle at the 50% retracement of the yearly range and the February LWC at 1.4167/84. Note that the channel resistance converges on this zone into the monthly cross and a breach / close above is needed to fuel the next major of the advance. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 2025 HWC and the 61.8% retracement at 1.4292-1.4315 and the objective yearly open at 1.4383.
Bottom line: USD/CAD has been bound within the November range, just above support. Look for a breakout of last week’s range in the days ahead for guidance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 1.3978 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.4183 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of this advance.
-MB
Support remains unchanged at 1.3978-1.4019- a region defined by the 2022 swing high, the November open, The May high, the 52-week moving average and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the July channel line converges on this threshold next month and a break / close below would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and that a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support seen at the 2022 high-week close (HWC) at 1.3881 and is backed by the 2025 low-week closed (LWC) at 1.3734.
A break above last week’s range exposes the next key technical hurdle at the 50% retracement of the yearly range and the February LWC at 1.4167/84. Note that the channel resistance converges on this zone into the monthly cross and a breach / close above is needed to fuel the next major of the advance. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 2025 HWC and the 61.8% retracement at 1.4292-1.4315 and the objective yearly open at 1.4383.
Bottom line: USD/CAD has been bound within the November range, just above support. Look for a breakout of last week’s range in the days ahead for guidance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 1.3978 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.4183 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of this advance.
-MB
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.