USDJPY → Huge Fall from 162.000! Heading for 155.000?
USD/JPY trickled it's way just shy of 162.000 where it formed a double top reversal pattern on the Daily chart and fell hard to 157.500. Should we still be long? Or is it time to get short?
How do we trade this? 🤔
As mentioned in my previous analysis from May 7th after the massive sell-off from 160.200 back down to 152.000, we should be looking for confirmation of a short before entering one. We now have a nice sell signal, the double top reversal, right after three strong pushes up in a trend. USD/JPY has been in a bull run since 2021 on the higher timeframes such as the weekly and monthly, getting short needs to be taken with extreme caution and careful planning.
It is reasonable to expect the USD/JPY price to retest the 160.000 area after such a fall. The bears are going to be skittish in a bull market, the bulls are going to try and long again to get that 50% pullback to the high side. But once the price goes 200 pips to the upside after the 400 pip drop, will we see another sell-off? Or a run back to 162.000 and beyond?
That's what we need to wait for, the confirmation sell candle closing on or near it's low to confirm more downside movement. It is reasonable to short this, but I would do it on the 4HR timeframe and wait for a long entry on the Daily timeframe. We should expect some support at 155.000, this trade waits for that second leg in the pullback from 162.000 to hit 155.000, give us a strong bull signal and confirmation candle to confirm a long entry around 156.000. Place the stop loss below 155.000 at 154.050, take profit #1 at 157.950 then move stop loss up to entry price, take profit #2 at 159.900, just before the key resistance of 160.000 which is also a psychological resistance.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Long Entry: 156.000
🟥 Stop Loss: 154.050
✅ Take Profit #1: 157.950
✅ Take Profit #2: 159.900
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Three pushes up after the 152.000 support confirmation to the key level of 162.000
2. Double top reversal at 162.000 followed by a 400 pip drop; sell signal
3. Look for 50% pullback toward 160.000 and a rejection at that key level to manifest the second leg down to the 155.000 area.
4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward long trade up to 159.900.
5. RSI near 41.00 and far below the Moving Average, supports pullback to the upside before another fall.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades and start looking for reversals.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about:
1. Reading Price Action
2. Chart Analysis
3. Trade Management
4. Trading Psychology
How do we trade this? 🤔
As mentioned in my previous analysis from May 7th after the massive sell-off from 160.200 back down to 152.000, we should be looking for confirmation of a short before entering one. We now have a nice sell signal, the double top reversal, right after three strong pushes up in a trend. USD/JPY has been in a bull run since 2021 on the higher timeframes such as the weekly and monthly, getting short needs to be taken with extreme caution and careful planning.
It is reasonable to expect the USD/JPY price to retest the 160.000 area after such a fall. The bears are going to be skittish in a bull market, the bulls are going to try and long again to get that 50% pullback to the high side. But once the price goes 200 pips to the upside after the 400 pip drop, will we see another sell-off? Or a run back to 162.000 and beyond?
That's what we need to wait for, the confirmation sell candle closing on or near it's low to confirm more downside movement. It is reasonable to short this, but I would do it on the 4HR timeframe and wait for a long entry on the Daily timeframe. We should expect some support at 155.000, this trade waits for that second leg in the pullback from 162.000 to hit 155.000, give us a strong bull signal and confirmation candle to confirm a long entry around 156.000. Place the stop loss below 155.000 at 154.050, take profit #1 at 157.950 then move stop loss up to entry price, take profit #2 at 159.900, just before the key resistance of 160.000 which is also a psychological resistance.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Long Entry: 156.000
🟥 Stop Loss: 154.050
✅ Take Profit #1: 157.950
✅ Take Profit #2: 159.900
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Three pushes up after the 152.000 support confirmation to the key level of 162.000
2. Double top reversal at 162.000 followed by a 400 pip drop; sell signal
3. Look for 50% pullback toward 160.000 and a rejection at that key level to manifest the second leg down to the 155.000 area.
4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward long trade up to 159.900.
5. RSI near 41.00 and far below the Moving Average, supports pullback to the upside before another fall.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades and start looking for reversals.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about:
1. Reading Price Action
2. Chart Analysis
3. Trade Management
4. Trading Psychology
-Joe Dean
Trader Engineering Course
**Available Now at TraderEngineering.com**
Trader Engineering Course
**Available Now at TraderEngineering.com**
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