Using the Regression Trend Tool to Analyze USDJPY
Currency charts (or any chart) can look rather chaotic sometimes.
Grabbing a regression trend tool may help. You select the tool and the pick the two points...usually a major high and low.
The regression tool then finds the line of best fit through the data. You can also add standard deviations above and below the regression line, resulting in a channel.
The result will be slightly different than a drawn channel because it is essentially highlighting the average price action between two points in time.
I have used the tool twice on the USDJPY chart. The larger one shows the price is near the top of a larger channel. The smaller shows the price is near the bottom of a short-term channel.
This helps highlight some potential trading opportunities. If the price consolidates here and moves higher (would use 4-hour chart), it is a buy trade into the top of the small and larger channels. But if that occurs, once the price reaches the upper channel, watch for a potential short (or break to the upside).
Alternatively, if we head lower from here, that will break the short-term rising channel, and indicate a pretty big downward move based on the larger channel.
You could freehand draw these channels as well, but sometimes a crazy one day move will obscure a pattern that the regression highlights. For example, the regression filters out that one day drop on Jan 2 2019....without the regression (or without ignoring that long candle wick) it is hard to see the channel.
You could also go back further in time and add in additional regression channels to provide a larger insight into where the currency pair is within its cycle.
Want more like this? Discuss trades in my free swing trading Facebook group: facebook.com/groups/528129224671978/
Grabbing a regression trend tool may help. You select the tool and the pick the two points...usually a major high and low.
The regression tool then finds the line of best fit through the data. You can also add standard deviations above and below the regression line, resulting in a channel.
The result will be slightly different than a drawn channel because it is essentially highlighting the average price action between two points in time.
I have used the tool twice on the USDJPY chart. The larger one shows the price is near the top of a larger channel. The smaller shows the price is near the bottom of a short-term channel.
This helps highlight some potential trading opportunities. If the price consolidates here and moves higher (would use 4-hour chart), it is a buy trade into the top of the small and larger channels. But if that occurs, once the price reaches the upper channel, watch for a potential short (or break to the upside).
Alternatively, if we head lower from here, that will break the short-term rising channel, and indicate a pretty big downward move based on the larger channel.
You could freehand draw these channels as well, but sometimes a crazy one day move will obscure a pattern that the regression highlights. For example, the regression filters out that one day drop on Jan 2 2019....without the regression (or without ignoring that long candle wick) it is hard to see the channel.
You could also go back further in time and add in additional regression channels to provide a larger insight into where the currency pair is within its cycle.
Want more like this? Discuss trades in my free swing trading Facebook group: facebook.com/groups/528129224671978/
Cory Mitchell, CMT
Stock and forex trading insights at tradethatswing.com/
Stock and forex trading insights at tradethatswing.com/
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