Silver Past & Present Bull Run/Bear Market Analysis. Is RSI Key?
This month's observations and discussion points are as follows:
+ Looking at the RSI, 200 MA and candles, it would not be unreasonable to believe there is more down time ahead.
+ Buying when the RSI is oversold on the monthly chart is not a bad good idea (not financial advice) as after the ONLY two previous times, bull runs have followed.
Crunching the Data
Bull Run & Bear Market A vs B
Bull Run A >>> Dec 1971 ~ Jan 1980 (8 years & 1 month) Bear Market A>>> Feb 1980 ~ Feb 1991 (11 years)
Bull Run B>>> Mar 1991 ~ Apr 2011 (20 years & 1 month) Bear Market B>>> May 2011 ~ Sep 2018... (7 years & 4 months...)
Bull Run A>>> $1.39 ~ $38.20 (x27.48) Bear Market A>>> $35.12 ~ $3.62 (-89.70%)
Bull Run B>>> $3.75 ~ $49.71 (x13.26) Bear Market B>>> $48.15 ~ $14.16...(-70.60%...)
Notes: Bull Run A was x2.07 larger in price than Bull Run B.
Notes: Bear Market A has so far decreased 19.10% more than the current Bear Market B.
Final Calculation & Summary
Bull Run A was x2.07 larger than Bull Run B, so it's logical to expect Bear Market A to also be x2.07 longer than Bear Market B.
89.70% / 2.07 = 43.33%
Following this assumption, the current bear market needs to go 43.33% down from Bull Run A's ATH and at this point should become oversold on the monthly RSI and ready to begin a new bull run. It's currently already down 70.60% from the ATH of Bull Run B so I GUESS ALL OF THIS RESEARCH WAS A COLOSSAL WASTE OF TIME! I guess every bull run is different and shouldn't be compared?
+ Looking at the RSI, 200 MA and candles, it would not be unreasonable to believe there is more down time ahead.
+ Buying when the RSI is oversold on the monthly chart is not a bad good idea (not financial advice) as after the ONLY two previous times, bull runs have followed.
Crunching the Data
Bull Run & Bear Market A vs B
Bull Run A >>> Dec 1971 ~ Jan 1980 (8 years & 1 month) Bear Market A>>> Feb 1980 ~ Feb 1991 (11 years)
Bull Run B>>> Mar 1991 ~ Apr 2011 (20 years & 1 month) Bear Market B>>> May 2011 ~ Sep 2018... (7 years & 4 months...)
Bull Run A>>> $1.39 ~ $38.20 (x27.48) Bear Market A>>> $35.12 ~ $3.62 (-89.70%)
Bull Run B>>> $3.75 ~ $49.71 (x13.26) Bear Market B>>> $48.15 ~ $14.16...(-70.60%...)
Notes: Bull Run A was x2.07 larger in price than Bull Run B.
Notes: Bear Market A has so far decreased 19.10% more than the current Bear Market B.
Final Calculation & Summary
Bull Run A was x2.07 larger than Bull Run B, so it's logical to expect Bear Market A to also be x2.07 longer than Bear Market B.
89.70% / 2.07 = 43.33%
Following this assumption, the current bear market needs to go 43.33% down from Bull Run A's ATH and at this point should become oversold on the monthly RSI and ready to begin a new bull run. It's currently already down 70.60% from the ATH of Bull Run B so I GUESS ALL OF THIS RESEARCH WAS A COLOSSAL WASTE OF TIME! I guess every bull run is different and shouldn't be compared?