August 22nd Latest Gold Trend Analysis and Strategy:

21 ago

I. Current Market Status and Key Views
Overall: Market is fluctuating within a wide range at a high level. Despite a strong rebound, no effective trend reversal has occurred, and the market remains in a consolidation pattern of bullish and bearish fluctuations.
Key Watershed: The 3350-3356 area is a key resistance level for determining whether the market can continue its upward trend and break out of the range-bound fluctuations. Until this area is effectively broken through and stabilized, the market will remain volatile.
Trading Strategy: Avoid chasing gains and selling losses; adopt a volatile strategy of selling high and buying low.

II. Technical Analysis Highlights
1-Hour Chart: A V-shaped rebound has occurred after bottoming out. Two large bullish candlesticks have almost recovered the previous losses, indicating strong buying support below. However, the price is currently approaching the upper limit of the range again.
Daily level: Closed with a large positive line, but the overall market is still running within the oscillation box. Subsequent K-line confirmation is needed.

III. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Upper Resistance:
Short-term Resistance: 3350-3356
Strong Resistance/Target: 3365-3375

Lower Support:
Short-term Support/Bull-Short Turnaround Point: 3332 (Daily support, key to maintaining the upward trend)
Strong Support/Buy Zone: 3320-3310 (Low point, ideal entry point for long orders)

IV. Today's Trading Strategy
Core Concept: Focus on long positions on pullbacks.
Long Strategy (Pullback Long):
Ideal Entry Zone: 3320-3310.
Stop-loss: Below 3305.
Target: 3340-3350; if it breaks through 3356, it could reach 3365-3375.

Short Strategy (Rebound High):
Ideal Entry Area: Upon a rebound to the 3365-3375 area, if stagflation signals (such as an upper shadow or engulfing candlestick) appear.
Stop-Loss: Upon a breakout above 3380.
Target: 3340-3330.

Aggressive Strategy:
If the price continues to consolidate above the 3332 support level during the Asian and European sessions, consider a short-term buy strategy with a small position, setting a stop-loss below 3325 and targeting around 3350.

V. Risk Warnings and Precautions
Beware of market whipsaws: The market has been volatile and volatile recently, so be wary of false breakouts and whipsaws. Never chase longs after a surge or shorts after a sharp drop.
Key break: If the price effectively falls below the 3310-3300 support, it may open up downside space and the long strategy needs to be suspended. Effective breakthrough: If the price breaks through strongly and stabilizes above 3356, the market is expected to rise further. The short-selling strategy needs to be suspended, and long orders can be followed up.

Summary: Gold is still in a volatile pattern. In terms of operation, we should remain patient, look for high-probability trading opportunities near key support and resistance levels, and strictly control risks.

22 ago

Trade attivo

Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis and Trading Strategies for Friday, August 22nd:

Analysis Date:
Key Focus: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium will be held tonight Beijing time, with the market eagerly awaiting clear signals on the future path of interest rates.

I. Core Views
The gold market is experiencing a period of "calm before the storm" ahead of major risk events, exhibiting a typical range-bound pattern. The strong performance of the US dollar and the postponement of market expectations for a Fed rate cut are the primary forces currently suppressing gold prices. Powell's speech today will be a key catalyst in determining gold's short-term direction, potentially triggering significant market volatility and a breakout direction.

II. Fundamental Analysis
Current Pressure:
A stronger US dollar: The US dollar index surged 0.45% on Thursday, hitting a two-week high. This makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies, reducing its appeal.
Hawkish Expectations: The market generally expects Powell to withhold a clear commitment to a September rate cut in his speech. This expectation continues to support the US dollar and pressure gold.

Potential Momentum:
Dovish Surprise: If Powell signals greater confidence in inflation returning to target, potentially opening the door to earlier and faster rate cuts in the future, this would severely impact the US dollar and provide a strong impetus for a gold rally.
Safe-haven Demand: Gold's safe-haven nature ensures buying support amidst any unexpected geopolitical tensions or market uncertainty.

III. Technical Analysis
Overall Trend: Bulls and bears are engaged in a fierce battle within a narrow range, with significant fluctuations, indicating a buildup of momentum before a directional breakout.

Key Price Levels:
Resistance Range: $3348-3358/oz. This is a critical ceiling for bulls to overcome before an upward move is initiated.

Support Range: $3320-3310/oz. This represents a target for bears to test; a break below this level could open up further downside potential.

Medium-Term Outlook: Analysts maintain a bearish view, believing that any current rebound could potentially build momentum for a subsequent decline. Key downside targets are $3270 or even $3245.

IV. Today's Trading Strategy
Core Principles: Be cautious before events, prioritize risk management; follow the trend after events and decisively follow suit.

Asia-Europe Session Strategy (Before Powell's Speech): Buy Low and Sell High Within the Range
Trading Strategy: Before breaking through the key range, try shorting with a small position near resistance and long with a small position near support.

Short Opportunities: If gold prices rebound and find pressure near the 3348-3352 area, consider shorting with a small position. Set a strict stop-loss above 3360, with a short-term target of 3330-3320.

Long Opportunities: If gold prices retreat and stabilize near the 3320-3310 area, consider going long with a small position. Set a strict stop-loss below 3305, with a short-term target of 3335-3345.

US Market Strategy (during and after Powell's speech): Breakout Follow
Upward Breakout: If Powell's speech is dovish, driving gold prices higher and sustaining above the 3358 resistance level, follow the trend with a long position, targeting the 3370-3380 area.

Downward Breakout: If Powell's speech is hawkish, causing gold prices to effectively break below the 3310-3300 support zone, follow the trend with a short position, targeting the 3280-3270 area.

V. Risk Warning
"Friday Effect": Fluctuations in market liquidity on Friday may lead to amplified and sometimes unpredictable price fluctuations.
Extreme Event Risk: Every word in Powell's speech could be interpreted and amplified by the market, leading to sudden gaps or sharp market fluctuations, and increasing the risk of slippage.
Strong Recommendation: Conservative traders may wait and see with short positions before the event, waiting for a clearer direction before entering the market. All traders must maintain a light position and set stop-loss orders in advance to avoid taking chances.