jherryPowell

next week's gold trend forecast layout

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jherryPowell Aggiornato   
OANDA:XAUUSD   Oro / Dollaro
Foreword: How to become the most market-adapted trader: The most important thing is to protect your funds. If you enter every small trading opportunity, it will definitely expose your funds to unnecessary risks.Otherwise, the funds are exhausted, and when a good trading opportunity appears, you can only worry about it.The second is to choose to trade wisely, just as predators in nature know how to choose prey, you must also choose to trade wisely.Be patient and abide by your own principles, otherwise continuous bad transactions can make you act impulsively.The correct reason for trading, what is the reason for opening a position this time, be methodical and well-structured, make a plan, and help develop appropriate trading habits and a good mentality.


What recent news has affected the trend of gold? Where is the trend of gold going?

Spot gold fluctuated narrowly on Friday (April 28) and is currently trading near 1986.The gold price remained basically stable below 2000.The factors that support and suppress gold prices are mixed.Fears of recession and risk aversion support gold prices, while expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates limit gold price gains.Investors are paying attention to more developments in the Federal Reserve.

Next week, investors will go through the test of super week.Although it is the May 1st International Labor Day Holiday, the market after the holiday is destined to be uneven.The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have announced interest rate resolutions one after another, and the US non-farm payrolls report will also be released next week.

On the bearish side, although the US GDP performed poorly in the first quarter, the details about inflation were impressive enough to increase the market's hawkish bets on the Fed.The Federal Reserve has further tightened its policies, putting pressure on gold prices to limit the rise in gold prices. In many ways, the worries of the U.S. banking industry have stimulated the market's risk aversion, which is conducive to gold prices.There are reports that the FRB plans to sell half of its loans to fill the US100 billion deposit flight gap, and concerns about the impact of the US banking industry have once again intensified.Factors such as U.S. banking concerns and the debt ceiling have stimulated risk aversion to support gold prices.


As continued inflation continues to affect the overall economy, the gold market continues to face some selling pressure, which some economists say may force the Fed to maintain aggressive monetary policy for longer than expected.On Friday (April 28), the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that its core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) rose by 0.3% in March, compared with an increase of 0.3% in January.The increase in inflation is in line with economists' expectations.However, in the past 12 months, core personal consumption expenditure inflation has risen by 4.6%, which is higher than expected.According to the general forecast, economists expect an increase of 4.5%.At the same time, the annual inflation data for February was revised up to 4.7%.At the same time, falling energy prices have helped overall inflation continue its downward trend.The report said that personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.3% last month, which was lower than the 0.6% increase in February.Overall personal consumption expenditure increased by 5.0% for the whole year, which was lower than the previous increase of 5.3%.As the gold price continues to stabilize below2000, the gold market is struggling to find any new bullish interest.



Analysis of the gold market trend next Monday


Technical analysis of gold: The gold first rebounded during the day to measure the pressure of 1990-93, and the afternoon market also recovered and adjusted again as expected. So far, the low point below has fallen to near 1976.Judging from the rhythm of the intraday trend, the recovery of gold during the day is still affected by the recovery of the US index, but the decline in gold is disproportionate to the recovery of the US index. This shows that the gold market still has some doubts about the strong performance of the US index during the day, but if the US index remains high tonight and does not recover, then the confidence of gold bears may increase, and there may be a risk of another decline at that time, but such a trend is also in line with the needs of gold's own structure.

Combined with the structure of the daily and hourly charts, the adjustment trend of gold in the evening is still mainly based on the adjustment trend. Although there will be competition around 1976 during the day, the overall structure of the center of gravity is still in a downward state. Once the fundamentals are bearish, or the US index continues to be strong, then the possibility of another decline in gold is still very high.At that time, we can continue to pay attention to the competition near 1970, and we are even expected to withdraw near 1960.The 5th and 10th lines above the intraday 1995-98 have formed effective resistance, so as long as the market does not stand firmly above the 5th and 10th lines tonight, the overall expectation of adjustment is still retained.


Judging from the rhythm of the intraday trend, the recovery of gold during the day is still limited. The gold price is now entangled in long and short positions. It has been oscillating for a week. It is close to 2,000 US dollars short, close to 1780 and more below, back and forth, the gold is happy, the gold 4-hour line, the gold bottomed out again on Friday night. The 1976 line supports the rebound. At present, from a structural point of view, the price is still in a triangular convergence pattern. The condition for breaking the level is to break through the 2015 line above and the 1969 line below, so before the range does not break, the intraday trend of gold is still Looking at the volatility, the price can go long near the lower line, and the upper line is close to the upper line. Short selling on dips is currently located below the moving average throughout the process, and the rebound is only a flash in the pan. The downward trend is inevitable, and the moving average is also obviously running downwards, and the two moving average lines are also dead ends downwards.

The operating thinking is still that sentence, keeping the medium-term bearish thinking unchanged. Overall, today's short-term operating thinking of gold recommends short-term rebound and long-term pullback, supplemented by long-term pullback. The short-term focus on the first-line resistance of 1997-2000, and the short-term focus on the first-line support of 1970-1976, friends must keep up with the rhythm.

It is necessary to control the position and stop loss issues, strictly set the stop loss, and do not resist orders.The recent market turmoil has been large, and opportunities and risks coexist, controlling risks and reaping benefits.


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