GOLD still has the ability to recover
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After the release of US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data lower than market expectations, gold quickly increased in price, reaching 2,320 USD/ounce. However, this high level did not last long due to profit-taking pressure and gold quickly fell to close weekly at 2,301 USD/ounce.
Although the easing cycle may be delayed, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made clear that interest rates will not go higher.
“I think it's unlikely that the next policy change will be to raise interest rates,” Powell said at a news conference. I would say that is unlikely to happen.”
Adding to gold's volatility was Friday's jobs data, which showed the US economy created 175,000 jobs in April, significantly less than expected. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and wage growth fell short of expectations.
While the jobs report supported interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pushing up gold prices, uncertainty about timing continued to dominate market sentiment and investors were likely to Take advantage of the recovery to take profits.
In the coming time, gold traders still need to pay attention to macro data and Fed speeches to have more data to guide their assessment of when the Fed will cut interest rates.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for longer and upbeat market sentiment have become key factors weakening safe-haven demand for gold.
However, at the latest FOMC meeting the prospect of a less hawkish Fed led to widespread dollar weakness and helped limit gold's decline, so caution is warranted. A basic direction for gold prices leans towards the possibility of a price decrease.
Data to watch out for is data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showing that speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures fell by 9,018 contracts to 167,139 contracts for the week ends April 30.
Next week, the market will also witness the sudden appearance of a number of central bank governors.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak in New York; Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak at an event in South Carolina; New York Fed President John William James will speak at a conference in California; and Chicago Fed President Austen Goolsby will speak at the Minnesota Economic Club.
Meanwhile, investors will focus on data on consumer confidence and inflation expectations later this week.
Economic data to watch next week
Wednesday: 10-year bond auction
Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision, weekly jobless claims, 30-year bond auction
Friday: Preliminary data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD
Last week, gold performed quite stably with a short-term bearish structure from the trend price channel.
Stay within range with nearest support from 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and resistance at $2,322 in the short term and beyond at EMA21 and $2,345.
Although the expected recovery at 2,365 USD continued to fail last week, maintaining above the original price level of 2,300 USD and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level should be considered positive conditions for recovery expectations. continues to appear next week.
As long as the bearish does not break below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it still has room to recover with a target level of around $2,365. However, in case the 0.236% Fibonacci level is broken below, it could cause the gold price to drop even more with a possible price drop to 2.223 or more to the 0.382% Fibonacci level. Therefore, if the 0.236% Fibonacci level is broken below, it is not advisable to open long positions, it is also time to protect open long positions around 2,284USD.
The point of complete breakout of the 0.236% Fibonacci level should be determined by price activity below the lower edge of the price channel.
Next week, the prospect of a bullish recovery inside the price channel will be noticed again with the following technical levels.
Support: 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,322 – 2,345 – 2,365USD
Although the easing cycle may be delayed, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made clear that interest rates will not go higher.
“I think it's unlikely that the next policy change will be to raise interest rates,” Powell said at a news conference. I would say that is unlikely to happen.”
Adding to gold's volatility was Friday's jobs data, which showed the US economy created 175,000 jobs in April, significantly less than expected. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and wage growth fell short of expectations.
While the jobs report supported interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pushing up gold prices, uncertainty about timing continued to dominate market sentiment and investors were likely to Take advantage of the recovery to take profits.
In the coming time, gold traders still need to pay attention to macro data and Fed speeches to have more data to guide their assessment of when the Fed will cut interest rates.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for longer and upbeat market sentiment have become key factors weakening safe-haven demand for gold.
However, at the latest FOMC meeting the prospect of a less hawkish Fed led to widespread dollar weakness and helped limit gold's decline, so caution is warranted. A basic direction for gold prices leans towards the possibility of a price decrease.
Data to watch out for is data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showing that speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures fell by 9,018 contracts to 167,139 contracts for the week ends April 30.
Next week, the market will also witness the sudden appearance of a number of central bank governors.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak in New York; Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak at an event in South Carolina; New York Fed President John William James will speak at a conference in California; and Chicago Fed President Austen Goolsby will speak at the Minnesota Economic Club.
Meanwhile, investors will focus on data on consumer confidence and inflation expectations later this week.
Economic data to watch next week
Wednesday: 10-year bond auction
Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision, weekly jobless claims, 30-year bond auction
Friday: Preliminary data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD Last week, gold performed quite stably with a short-term bearish structure from the trend price channel.
Stay within range with nearest support from 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and resistance at $2,322 in the short term and beyond at EMA21 and $2,345.
Although the expected recovery at 2,365 USD continued to fail last week, maintaining above the original price level of 2,300 USD and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level should be considered positive conditions for recovery expectations. continues to appear next week.
As long as the bearish does not break below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it still has room to recover with a target level of around $2,365. However, in case the 0.236% Fibonacci level is broken below, it could cause the gold price to drop even more with a possible price drop to 2.223 or more to the 0.382% Fibonacci level. Therefore, if the 0.236% Fibonacci level is broken below, it is not advisable to open long positions, it is also time to protect open long positions around 2,284USD.
The point of complete breakout of the 0.236% Fibonacci level should be determined by price activity below the lower edge of the price channel.
Next week, the prospect of a bullish recovery inside the price channel will be noticed again with the following technical levels.
Support: 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,322 – 2,345 – 2,365USD
Nota
The Fed has been actively combating high inflation for more than two years, with a series of interest rate increases starting in March 2022, totaling more than five percentage points. This aggressive action has been unprecedented in four decades. Although inflation has declined from its peak in mid-2022, it remains above the Fed's 2% target, which has been a key part of the Fed's policy approach since 2012.Nota
All current conditions are favorable for people to spend again: the unemployment rate is at a record low, wages are rising sharply and inflation is being controlled at nearly 2%. Business surveys are starting to show a glimmer of hope with the belief that it will only be a matter of time before buyers return to spending more.Nota
Gold rebounded to above $2,327 early in the US sessionGold rose more than 1% to above $2,327 early in the US session on a day without any notable economic data except statements from Fed officials.
Nota
Nota
Global gold prices fell slightly during these moments of trading, today, Tuesday, as this coincides with an increase in bets that the US Central Bank will reduce interest rates later this year and an increase in demand for bullion as a safe haven in light of the ambiguity of the ceasefire in Gaza.Nota
Gold investors are waiting for new directional information. US weekly initial jobless claims numbers will be released on Thursday. In addition, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will also give a speech on the day. Dovish comments from Fed officials could limit gold price declines for the time being.Nota
Gold increased sharply to $2,338/ozNota
The Israeli Army: We decided to return to work in Jabalia, north of Gaza, and evacuate the residents after Hamas attempts to restore its capabilities there.Nota
🔹Gold prices jumped on Friday, May 10, and are on track to record weekly gains supported by momentum thanks to weak US jobs data this week.Gold rose in spot transactions by 0.71% to $2,362.49 per ounce. US gold futures contracts for June delivery also rose by 1.26% to $2,369.60.
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🧩Get an average of 1200 pips per month
🧩Consulting on Risk Management
🧩Account management
🧩Forex signals have a high win rate
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