Today’s non-farm payroll (NFP) expectation is 126k, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%.
Throughout the month, employment data has been weak. Both initial jobless claims and continuing claims have increased, and the ADP report also came in low.
The only partial strength was seen in last month’s JOLTS job openings data, but even that can be largely discounted due to reduced reliability in data collection.
In May, hiring typically increases in tourism, restaurants, and other service sectors. However, this year, tourism in the U.S. has been weak, and when considering tariffs, and low economic activity data and less business travel to US due to it, a soft NFP reading can be expected.
I also don’t think it would be wrong to expect slower hiring in logistics. If we assume that government sector hiring has also slowed, I believe we could see a double-digit NFP figure and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.
1- If the NFP comes in at 50k or lower, recession fears may trigger a rise in gold prices and if the figure is negative, the reaction could be even stronger.
2- If the result is between 100k–140k, I expect a sideways to mildly bearish reaction in gold.
3- If it comes in above 140k, I would expect a negative move for gold.
Over the past 12 months, gold's 6-hour return following U.S. payrolls data typically falls within a ±1.5 standard deviation range. On the upside, +1.5 standard deviation corresponds to a 0.71% gain, while on the downside, -1.5 standard deviation equates to a -1.70% drop. This asymmetry shows that gold tends to react more sharply to downside surprises in the data. Regardless of the direction, traders should not expect moves exceeding ±1.5% within the initial 6 hours after the release. If the returns passed 1.5%, profit taking should be considered for short-term trades.
Technically, gold has been in an uptrend since the May 29 bottom. As long as this trend remains intact, the short-term bias will likely stay to the upside.
Throughout the month, employment data has been weak. Both initial jobless claims and continuing claims have increased, and the ADP report also came in low.
The only partial strength was seen in last month’s JOLTS job openings data, but even that can be largely discounted due to reduced reliability in data collection.
In May, hiring typically increases in tourism, restaurants, and other service sectors. However, this year, tourism in the U.S. has been weak, and when considering tariffs, and low economic activity data and less business travel to US due to it, a soft NFP reading can be expected.
I also don’t think it would be wrong to expect slower hiring in logistics. If we assume that government sector hiring has also slowed, I believe we could see a double-digit NFP figure and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.
1- If the NFP comes in at 50k or lower, recession fears may trigger a rise in gold prices and if the figure is negative, the reaction could be even stronger.
2- If the result is between 100k–140k, I expect a sideways to mildly bearish reaction in gold.
3- If it comes in above 140k, I would expect a negative move for gold.
Over the past 12 months, gold's 6-hour return following U.S. payrolls data typically falls within a ±1.5 standard deviation range. On the upside, +1.5 standard deviation corresponds to a 0.71% gain, while on the downside, -1.5 standard deviation equates to a -1.70% drop. This asymmetry shows that gold tends to react more sharply to downside surprises in the data. Regardless of the direction, traders should not expect moves exceeding ±1.5% within the initial 6 hours after the release. If the returns passed 1.5%, profit taking should be considered for short-term trades.
Technically, gold has been in an uptrend since the May 29 bottom. As long as this trend remains intact, the short-term bias will likely stay to the upside.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.