Gold at Key Level Before NFP – Big Move Loading ?

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📉 Fundamental Analysis

Gold remains in a strong bullish structure, supported by multiple macroeconomic and political drivers:

ADP Employment Report Missed Expectations: With a shocking -33K reading, market sentiment shifted firmly against the US Dollar, pushing gold higher.

Fed’s Easing Outlook: Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut in Q3, weakening real yields and supporting demand for gold.

Trump’s “Super Bill” Momentum: Political cohesion among Republicans has re-ignited fiscal stimulus expectations, fuelling concerns over long-term US debt sustainability—another tailwind for gold as a safe haven.

🧠 Smart Money Technical Framework (H1)

Price has moved into a Premium FVG Zone, showing signs of potential exhaustion after forming a clear CHoCH and bullish BOS. The current zone (3,375 – 3,376) aligns with a mid-risk sell region, where price may experience short-term rejection before revisiting demand zones.

Market structure suggests liquidity sweep potential towards the downside before any continuation of the larger bullish trend.

📊 Trading Strategy – Smart Money Zones & Key Levels
🔵 BUY SCALP: 3,334 – 3,333
🔴 SL: 3,329
✅ TP: 3,340 → 3,344 → 3,350 → 3,360

🔵 BUY ZONE LOW RISK: 3,317 – 3,316
🔴 SL: 3,311
✅ TP: 3,320 → 3,325 → 3,330 → 3,336 → 3,345 → 3,350 → 3,360

🔴 SELL SCALP ZONE: 3,375 – 3,376
🔴 SL: 3,380
✔️ TP: 3,370 → 3,366 → 3,360 → 3,355 → 3,350

🔴 SELL ZONE HIGH PROBABILITY: 3,388 – 3,390
🔴 SL: 3,394
✔️ TP: 3,384 → 3,380 → 3,376 → 3,370 → 3,366 → 3,360

📌 Notes:

Be cautious ahead of NFP data and the upcoming US bank holiday—expect liquidity traps and sudden volatility.

This setup is ideal for intraweek scalping and liquidity-based reversals.

All trades follow Smart Money Concepts logic: premium vs. discount zones, CHoCH + BOS confirmations, and institutional order flow anticipation.

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Trade attivo

🔵 BUY SCALP: 3,334 – 3,333 +40pips (Closed BE)

🔵 BUY ZONE LOW RISK: 3,317 – 3,316 +100pips Running

Elise on Sell Wave Before at 3354 +400pips ! (Hit Full TP)

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Nota

🔵 BUY ZONE LOW RISK: 3,317 – 3,316 +160pips Running

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Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

TARGET 2 REACH 200PIPS !