Rising Wedge on the Edge — The Breakdown Is Only One Candle Away

5 giorni fa

CURRENT MARKET ANALYSIS & TODAY’S EXPECTED MOVE
1. Current Market Structure
The market is currently respecting the structure of a Rising Wedge — a pattern where price continues rising but momentum weakens, volatility compresses, and the probability of a bearish breakdown increases.

Key observations:
- Price is moving near the upper boundary of the wedge.
- Newly formed highs lack strength → buying pressure is fading.
- Recent candles show long upper wicks, indicating strong sell pressure at resistance.
- The lower support line has been tested multiple times, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown.
- Buyers are losing control while sellers are beginning to step in.

2. Primary Scenarios for Today
✓ Scenario 1 – Breakdown of the Rising Wedge (High-probability scenario)
If a candle closes decisively below the lower support, the market is likely to:
- Drop quickly toward the next support levels.
- Trigger strong seller participation on the retest of the broken trendline (support → resistance).
- Confirm a high-quality SELL entry.
Downside Targets:
- Target 1: Nearest support zone
- Target 2: Previous low of the wedge
- Target 3: Major support below (depending on your timeframe)

✓ Scenario 2 – Price holds but remains weak
If price bounces from the lower edge but fails to break the upper boundary:
- The structure remains weakly bullish but vulnerable.
- Any upward move is fragile and easy to reverse.
- Not suitable for chasing BUY positions.
- Bulls need a strong breakout above the upper trendline to reverse the bias — which currently has a lower probability.

3. Intraday Trend Bias
Today’s intraday bias remains: DOWN (or at least corrective to the downside).
Confirmation signs:
- Support becomes easier to break the more it is tested.
- Volume is weak on bullish moves.
- Price action is tightening → preparing for a breakout.
- Sellers will wait for a clean retest, as shown in your reference chart.

4. Conclusion
The market is approaching the end-phase of a Rising Wedge, a classic bearish reversal pattern.
Priority today: Wait for breakdown → retest → SELL.
Avoid chasing BUY setups due to high reversal risk.
Expected development:
Break support → Retest → Continue dropping

“Your edge is built from discipline — not every setup must be traded, but every trade must follow your plan.”

Drop your market bias in the comments — do you expect the breakdown or a surprise breakout?

5 giorni fa

Trade attivo

My prediction played out exactly as expected. This is a clear reminder that when we trust our analysis, stay disciplined, and stick to our plan, the market eventually validates the effort we put in. Today’s result isn’t luck — it’s the outcome of consistent observation, experience, and dedication. Let’s keep this momentum going, because many more solid opportunities are ahead.

3 giorni fa

Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto