Feeling Scared...

29 set 2019

It seems like everything going on the past 3 years; political turmoil, china trade, world economic growth, and climate change have all finally correlated in blaring alarm bells that only the foolish would choose to ignore. We see the major indices push NEW highs every day even while numerous reports keep showing that the world is reaching for its last breaths in this exhausted bull market. If we could pull apart and look at just purely the data, we could see a future scenario where the FED pumping in billions of $$ could theoretically stabilize the markets and allow another leg of economic expansion to begin, which is exactly why the FED is pouring in money because they only look at the numbers even if they say they are in touch with the "average" American. The problem with this scenario is that it ill-tries to explain the current world environment and especially the major cultural, environmental, and emotional phenomenons going on. We now have a sitting President who is at the heart of an open impeachment process, and if you think the half of the population that voted for him last election is sitting by twiddling their thumbs, you are gonna be in for a huge wake up call when things start heating up between the two parties. Couple this along with what I consider to be one the most volatile points in human history concerning current cultural identities and individual identities (As exemplified by the countless number of new shooting carried out on a now almost weekly basis by distressed individuals who are the very front lines of this political and culture clash) and you can start to build a picture of not just where the economy is headed, but also the whole of our society. A MAJOR, like not exaggerated in the least, headwind is currently happening and will most likely result in major re-shaping to fundamental institutions and practices. I personally believe ZERO lessons were learned from the 2008 financial crisis and the old money continued its greed speckled path towards greater profits based off of more debt. We now have the worlds largest and most powerful companies pushing towards trillion market caps based off of what? The answer is always the consumer. Even at the end of the day after accounting for all the real world applications for the products, software, and services being provided by these companies, we have to always take a step back and remember that 70% of whats being bought is payed for by consumers who are not buying for the real-world applications offered, but rather for the status, entertainment value and because simply put, spending money is just what humans excel at lol. In the end this can only lead to a major pullback towards balance-sheet fundamentals that take into account not just what is being produced and if its making a profit, but actually the purpose of these products and the growth potential offered for a POSITIVE impact on future generations. This retrospectively is what should send markets back into a recession, and the way things are shaping up, we could see a repeat or worse of the Great Depression when taken into account the factors of culture and identity shifts, climate change, and the same power struggles between the same countries who even after millions of lives have been spent, still can't seem to remember we all live on the same chunk of dirt floating in space.

I believe that in the next 10 years we will see one of 3 possibilities play out:

1. Current global heads of state and political bodies will consolidate power into an unbreakable and unchallengeable authoritative group which will then dictate everything through a broken capitalist system that will value only money.
2. A monumental generational shift of power takes place where the ideals of a new youth are implemented and we see an unparalleled explosion in economic growth based off cutting ties with the leaching ways of fossil fuels and embrace that renewable, most likely free, energy is the future and only time will tell the limits of what is achievable by mankind.
3. If you need this one explained you most likely won't survive the outcome.

Final Note: The information in this post is purely theoretical, and is in no way meant to be biased to any side. I simply wanted to share these ideas and see what the community thinks, because after all I hope thats how scenario 2's fundamentals are achieved by constant vigilant questioning of how the world actually is and if there are better ways (trust me there are).



... also gold looks to be positioning up from the current consolidation area for a major uptick as the major indices finally see cracks. Originally I had believed that GOLD would fall back down to around $1450 to hedge against one last market breath and form the handle of the macro cup-and-handle formation. This past week however has shifted those ideals and I believe the escalation of current world events will push gold to simply skip the handle and continue its uptrend.