GOLD still has all the conditions for price increases
US economic data was stronger than expected and markets predict these data could influence the extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The USD and US bond yields increased, causing gold prices to encounter some difficulties for expectations of price increases.
XAUUSD gave up gains earlier this week, after US inflation data showed inflation eased in July. However, gold remains near all-time highs set last month. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have increased 19%, mainly due to optimistic market expectations about loosening monetary policies and gold purchasing activities of central banks.
The latest data released by the United States shows that the core consumer price index (CPI) in July, which is a price index that excludes food and energy costs, fell to its lowest level compared to the same month last year. since the start of 2021. This suggests inflationary pressures have eased, supporting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month.
U.S. retail sales rose 1.0% last month after falling 0.2% in June, the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau said.
In particular, a report from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of Americans newly applying for unemployment benefits last week fell to its lowest level in a month.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70.5% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 29.5%.
The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively until November is 59.1%, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points cumulatively is 36.2%, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates The cumulative yield of 100 basis points is 4.8%.
As a non-interest-paying asset, gold prices typically increase when interest rates fall. As inflation slows, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will increase, further boosting gold's appeal. In addition, gold purchasing activities of central banks around the world have also become reliable support for gold prices.
In addition to monetary policy, geopolitical instability is also a major factor driving gold demand. Tensions in the Middle East and conflict between Russia and Ukraine have increased gold's appeal as a safe haven asset.
Analysis of technical prospects forXAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is slowing down after a string of highly volatile trading days with price activity around the key technical area of $2,455 – $2,448.
Although gold has strong downward corrections at times, in terms of the overall technical chart, it still has the main prospect of price increase. With the price channel as the main trend and main support from the EMA 21.
The fact that gold keeps its price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level allows it to continue to increase with a short-term target of around 2,471USD, the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci extension.
As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the 21 EMA, its technical outlook remains bullish, while the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached overbought levels and is above 50 indicating There is still a lot of room for price increases ahead.
Note: From 2023 until now, gold has had huge fluctuations because traders must always be ready for trading sessions with large amplitudes.
Unlike previous years, when 2-3% trading days were very rare and it took a lot of time for gold to fluctuate like that. But in a market context with many sudden fundamental impacts, the price of gold can completely change 2-3% in just a few hours.
The best advice is just to be patient and look for solid positions and strictly manage the trade size relative to the trading account.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish with notable levels listed below.
Support: 2,448 – 2,426USD
Resistance: 2,471USD
XAUUSD gave up gains earlier this week, after US inflation data showed inflation eased in July. However, gold remains near all-time highs set last month. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have increased 19%, mainly due to optimistic market expectations about loosening monetary policies and gold purchasing activities of central banks.The latest data released by the United States shows that the core consumer price index (CPI) in July, which is a price index that excludes food and energy costs, fell to its lowest level compared to the same month last year. since the start of 2021. This suggests inflationary pressures have eased, supporting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month.
U.S. retail sales rose 1.0% last month after falling 0.2% in June, the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau said.
In particular, a report from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of Americans newly applying for unemployment benefits last week fell to its lowest level in a month.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70.5% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 29.5%.
The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively until November is 59.1%, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points cumulatively is 36.2%, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates The cumulative yield of 100 basis points is 4.8%.
As a non-interest-paying asset, gold prices typically increase when interest rates fall. As inflation slows, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will increase, further boosting gold's appeal. In addition, gold purchasing activities of central banks around the world have also become reliable support for gold prices.
In addition to monetary policy, geopolitical instability is also a major factor driving gold demand. Tensions in the Middle East and conflict between Russia and Ukraine have increased gold's appeal as a safe haven asset.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is slowing down after a string of highly volatile trading days with price activity around the key technical area of $2,455 – $2,448.
Although gold has strong downward corrections at times, in terms of the overall technical chart, it still has the main prospect of price increase. With the price channel as the main trend and main support from the EMA 21.
The fact that gold keeps its price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level allows it to continue to increase with a short-term target of around 2,471USD, the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci extension.
As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the 21 EMA, its technical outlook remains bullish, while the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached overbought levels and is above 50 indicating There is still a lot of room for price increases ahead.
Note: From 2023 until now, gold has had huge fluctuations because traders must always be ready for trading sessions with large amplitudes.
Unlike previous years, when 2-3% trading days were very rare and it took a lot of time for gold to fluctuate like that. But in a market context with many sudden fundamental impacts, the price of gold can completely change 2-3% in just a few hours.
The best advice is just to be patient and look for solid positions and strictly manage the trade size relative to the trading account.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish with notable levels listed below.
Support: 2,448 – 2,426USD
Resistance: 2,471USD
Nota
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![GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [19 August - 23 August]](https://s3.tradingview.com/c/CI4BbkuT_mid.png)
Nota
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