GOLD follows geopolitical trends

7 ott

XAUUSD fell on Friday (October 4) after a better-than-expected US jobs report dampened expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, boosting the dollar. However, geopolitical risks related to Israel and Iran supported gold prices, limiting the downward adjustment.

The U.S. labor market added more jobs than expected in September, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, reflecting the job market outlook, the U.S. Department of Labor reported last Friday. much stronger than expected.
New U.S. nonfarm payrolls totaled 254,000 in September, above August's revised 159,000 and better than market expectations of 150,000. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1% month-on-month to 4.1% in September. The market expects the unemployment rate to stabilize at 4.2%.
As a key indicator of inflationary pressures, annual wage growth increased to 4% from 3.9% in August, a monthly increase of 0.4%, in line with August data, The labor force participation rate was unchanged from the previous month at 62.7%.

After strong employment data, the market expects that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, while lowering expectations for interest rate cuts at the next four Fed meetings to less than 100 basis points.
According to CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool", the market currently predicts the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 97.4% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 2.6%. .

Israel does not guarantee not to carry out retaliatory attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities
On Friday (October 4) local time, a senior US State Department official announced that Israel has not assured the Biden administration that it will not carry out retaliatory attacks against facilities. Iran's nuclear program.

Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening a new, much more dangerous front in the war raging across the Middle East.

The US official added that it was difficult to know whether Israel would launch a retaliatory strike on October 7, the first anniversary of a major attack by Hamas on Israel.

Israeli officials say Israel will launch "retaliation" in the next few days after a major Iranian missile attack, possibly targeting oil production facilities and other strategic locations in Iran - according to Axios reported Wednesday.

Iran threatened Tuesday to launch another attack if Israel responded with force following the launch of nearly 200 missiles.
Axios also reported Israeli officials saying that if this happens, all options will be on the table, including an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

This week, the US will release inflation data, initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index. At the same time, the geopolitical situation will continue to limit the decline in gold prices. An escalation in the conflict involving Hezbollah, Iran, Israel and the United States would be expected to provide potential support for new highs in gold prices.

Economic data to watch out for this week
Wednesday: Minutes of September FOMC meeting
Thursday: US Consumer Price Index(CPI), Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Gold had a highly volatile trading week but overall remained stable with an uptrend, and all downward corrections recovered quickly when reaching support levels of interest to readers at 2,624 - 2,645 USD.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down from the overbought level, but the slope is not large and does not create any significant decline, showing that the market sentiment does not want to short-sell gold and the selling motivation is very weak.

The trend of gold price will still be stable with short-term price channel and EMA21 as main support. As long as gold remains in the price channel, its technical outlook is still bullish.
The target level is fixed at 2,672 USD, which means the nearest resistance is at 2,672 USD followed by the previously established all-time high of 2,685 USD.

In the coming time, the gold price outlook will be shaped by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634 – 2,624USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2673 - 2671⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2677

→Take Profit 1 2666
↨
→Take Profit 2 2661

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2629 - 2631⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2625

→Take Profit 1 2636
↨
→Take Profit 2 2641

7 ott

Nota

Gold prices fell more than 200 pips to below 2,640 USD/oz in the context that bets on the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bps in November were almost eliminated. The USD consolidated last week's strong gains and put pressure on gold prices as investors are closely monitoring the geopolitical situation.

8 ott

Nota

Gold's "pause" last week was mainly due to the strong increase in the USD, benefiting from safe-haven capital flows after Iran launched more than 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel and the US jobs report exceeded expectations. on Friday, when 254,000 new jobs were created in September. Gold and the USD often have a negative correlation, meaning a stronger USD often puts downward pressure on gold prices and vice versa. However, despite the recent USD rally, gold still maintains its position.

8 ott

Nota

8 ott

Nota

Gold price is still maintaining around 2,640 USD/oz. Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November seem to have reached 0%, creating a drag on the precious metal's rise. However, geopolitical risks and mild USD weakness will limit the downside for XAU/USD.

9 ott

Nota

On the international market, the gold price today reached 2,609 USD/ounce, down 33 USD. The sudden decline in world gold prices is said to be due to overbought conditions. Although there may be room to increase in the near future, precious metals are "running out of buyers".

9 ott

Nota

Gold dropped to nearly 2,610 USD/oz

10 ott

Nota

The world's yellow metal stagnated after falling for 6 consecutive days, pressured by the recovery of the USD. The DXY index hit its highest level in nearly two months, making bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. In addition, expectations surrounding an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its November meeting also put significant pressure on gold.

10 ott

Nota

Gold prices fluctuated strongly, jerking in both directions during the session due to US job market data and CPI inflation. Gold price is currently "struggling" around 2625 USD/oz on the H4 chart, however this precious metal still maintains an increase of more than 200 pips during the session.

11 ott

Nota

At the end of the trading session on October 10, the spot gold contract increased 0.6% to 2,623.58 USD/oz, ending a series of 6 consecutive losing sessions. Gold futures contracts added 0.5% to 2,639.30 USD/oz.

11 ott

Nota

According to a report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics today, the US PPI index in September was unchanged compared to August. Compared to a year ago, this index increased 1.8% — the smallest increase since February. Core PPI increased 0.1%, equal to the smallest increase since May 2023. The market continues to expect the Fed to lower interest rates by 25 bps next month.