There is a minor short term descending wedge within a major multi-month wedge. One break should lead into the other. I would assume a break (up OR down) soon as the wedge looks pretty cooked!
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Zooming in to the very minor time frames; a potential EW count would break the topside of the smaller wedge with a minor wave 5 and find resistance under the larger macro wedge. The answer to this count will be very soon as this is a 5minute chart.
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Ultimately the direction of BTC will be dictated by the US dollar. The dollar looks to be falling downwards out of a rising wedge. I took a look at this wedge a few months ago but expected an answer quicker than this as to what way the wedge would resolve. I am obviously spoiled by the speed of crypto markets.
It did initially break down following the recent inflation figures. Right now it looks like a simple upward corrective wave (potential bulltrap) back inside the wedge. If it makes a higher low here and continues upwards I would change my bias back towards bear for BTC.
It did initially break down following the recent inflation figures. Right now it looks like a simple upward corrective wave (potential bulltrap) back inside the wedge. If it makes a higher low here and continues upwards I would change my bias back towards bear for BTC.
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I forgot to point out above that BTC generally does the opposite of what the US dollar is doing.
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Very short term I am cautiously bullish on BTC.
HOWEVER, if this wedge breaks down then it also invalidates my Elliott Wave count.
HOWEVER, if this wedge breaks down then it also invalidates my Elliott Wave count.
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To clarify the last chart - I don't want to see another break below $41,600.
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Short term target hit on BTC. Hoping for a bullish higher low of the overall structure now. (It could of course go slightly higher first before the pull back of the 1-5 wave move.
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Zooming out from 5min to 30min candles, poorly drawn.
May get a slight higher high with a lower RSI high. Then the bulls would want to protect a higher low before continuing higher. The price doesn't need to go to or as low as a .618 retrace but that's where I would expect the bulls to step back in.
May get a slight higher high with a lower RSI high. Then the bulls would want to protect a higher low before continuing higher. The price doesn't need to go to or as low as a .618 retrace but that's where I would expect the bulls to step back in.
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The larger, macro patterns of course trump the smaller ones.
BTC is now teetering on the brink of the larger downtrend line.
Per my recent updates (above), we may get a smaller pull back before thrusting upwards and out with a wave 3. This would be invalidated with a drop below around $41,200 - realistically higher than that as a bullish retrace shouldn't go back to the floor.
BTC is now teetering on the brink of the larger downtrend line.
Per my recent updates (above), we may get a smaller pull back before thrusting upwards and out with a wave 3. This would be invalidated with a drop below around $41,200 - realistically higher than that as a bullish retrace shouldn't go back to the floor.