Bitcoin getting ready for a big move soon (hopefully)

30 lug 2018

These are the moments we hate bitcoin :), going sideways for 3 days in a row, dumping 200 points and going up just as fast again to repeat the cycle several times. I could see someone was loading up good amount of btc the last hour. So even though the sell orders were quite big, someone was very willing and eager to catch those sell orders. The charts have not changed a bit since my last update, still just as ugly :). That inverse H&S is still in play, that big bull flag on the right is also still in play, price is still staying above it's support line, probably waiting for buyers to finally step in again and break through that 8300 level. I have been watching several this weekend what was going on with some of the attempts to break the 8300. The volume is just to low and i really had a feeling that the price was being pushed down, since it is very easy to do so with those low volumes. So of course it could mean 2 things, some is building up a short position, or it was just to early to let it rally and needed to get pushed down first to load up some long positions. These moments (sideways action with low volatility) are the one that it's difficult for me to say what the next move will be. I think it's still more bullish than bearish for the coming week. Hopefully we will get our answer very soon.
So the 8100/8050 is a support level and the 8250/8300 is the resistance. I think if we break the 8300 we should see at least 8600/8650 before maybe making another correction again.

Previous analysis:

30 lug 2018

Nota

Just literary a minute after my post the price got pushed up from 8125 to 8200 with some very big buy orders at Bitfinex, other exchanges did not really follow and drop a bit again. But at the moment i can see another attempt happening. Coinbase is the weakest link at the moment with a difference of 30 points, it has been the weakest for a weak now.
Now the problem with this is, if the price difference gets to big, there are automatic trading bots who try to profit from these price differences (arbitrage), so even though Bitfinex is trying to push the prices up, these bots will probably automatically push the price down at Bitfinex as well, because they can earn some points while doing so.
I can still see the same 100 btc buy orders just waiting to get filled from the 8160/80 all the way down to the 8120 again just now. Or it's someone who is over confident :) or something is going on here

30 lug 2018

Nota

From what i can see, the same is going on at Bitmex, i could be reading it the wrong way, but i don't think so. Hopefully we will get an answer within an hour

30 lug 2018

Nota

So that was a clear misread for 90% that is, only if the 7800 breaks it would mean this was not just a bull shake out and something completely different was going on. At the moment the 7900/7950 should hold to remain bull trend on the low time frame, if that breaks, we might see a break of the 7800 as well. Than the bulls need the 7500 to hold

30 lug 2018

Nota

Starting to almost confirm it was no more than a very big shake out.

30 lug 2018

Nota

If the 8150/8200 breaks, we could see another big rally, a big squeeze. So far nothing else to think off than this was all a big shake out, but much bigger than i thought it could be.

30 lug 2018

Nota

If the bulls can keep it above the bull flag from the left chart, we could see a small inverse H&S play here (chart on the right), but it needs to happen fast, not like this weekend where some players got the time to make this shake out plan

31 lug 2018

Nota

Have not seen these movements for quite some time now, had a few very good weeks with normal movements, was hoping that would be the end of it. But it has become clear it will probably never end. Even though my view is still up, moments like these are the best times to take a break and sit it out. The movements are way to random. I think they are just trying to shake out long positions, since those have increased on Bitfinex and Bitmex. I wonder if they will just keep on doing this until those levels drop, or eventually just give up.

When zooming out, we can see the bull flag is still in play, but has become much bigger than a few days ago. Could bring us to 7700/7600 even. Support is breaking while i am writing this. At the moment it's making a small bear flag, bulls are trying to invalidate it to prevent more downwards action. We would need to see a jump up towards 7900 then

31 lug 2018

Nota

So the bulls failed there, now we have a small bounce from the low, big chance this is the low for now. If we see a bounce above 7820/50, it would be a good first confirmation

1 ago 2018

Nota

That hidden order at 7670 bought a very big amount of btc, there are 2 options based on that
- He is still not finished loading up and did not cause the bounce up and is waiting for it to drop again.
-Or we should see support above 7700 now.

With all the big buy orders and the hidden orders, would be quite strange to see the price break big supports now. These people don't trade or get scared of 100 points against them. They also dont trade for a few hundred points profit. So either it was really wash trading (was almost clearly not with the hidden buy order) or it's a matter of time until we see a move up again. Just a theory of what could be going of, i have been off with my bullish view as well the past days, so i could be off about this as well