Bitcoin Daily Update (day 262)

21 nov 2018

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis: “the next daily fractal that I am seeing is at $4,265 and that is exactly where I am expecting the next selloff to find support.”
Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 (profit taken on 80% of position) | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32 (profit taken on 70% of position) | Short EOS:BTC from 0.000808 | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00758


Patterns: Trying to break out of down trend from yesterday but having trouble.
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4,020 - $4,193 | R: $4,428
BTCUSDSHORTS:There was that big spike I was waiting for. Looks like big players have been taking out large shorts over the past couple days.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.1021% (holy cow)
Short term trend (4 day MA): Today’s candle didn’t even test the 4 MA
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Right in line with expected horizontal resistance at $5,000 - $5,200
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Has just started to rollover
Overall trend: bear
Volume: Today’s volume was the most we have seen since July 24th. It is red but I am viewing the volume as bullish (at least for now) due to the hammer candle that closed. Price broke down below $4,200 and the selling volume really picked up. However support held strong at $4,000 and a bullish wick resulted. IMO this is effort exceeding result and we should get a bounce.
FIB’s: My FIB line at $4,262 has held strong. Have not seen a 4h candle close below.
Candlestick analysis: 4h and daily hammer candles on high volume is very bullish (at least for now)
Ichimoku Cloud: 15m cloud has been very helpful for resistance. Higher TF’s are not very useful right now.
TD’ Sequential: Daily r5 | 4h hit a r9 + s13 yesterday
Visible Range: Next average volume node is $3,619 - $4,366 | Next high volume node is $2,015 - $2,761
Price action: 24h: -9% | 2w: -32.2% | 1m: -31.36%
Bollinger Bands: Another close below the bottom band. Watch for price to close back inside and then return to MA which is > $5,750
Trendline: Price broke out of 15m channel from yesterday’s post and is trying to support a throwback
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: From yesterday’s post: “the next daily fractal that I am seeing is at $4,265 and that is exactly where I am expecting the next selloff to find support.” So far that fractal held as support since price closed above.
RSI: All time lows on Daily
Stochastic: Pulling back after buy signal failed

Summary: I am very confident that we are going to bounce from $4,000 support. I have been eyeing this area for months due to the gap in volume at $5,000. I did start buying back some spot BTC’ at an average price of $4,225.

However I am not turning bullish / calling for a bottom and I want to make that very clear. I simply believe that there is a high probability that I will be able to sell at my profit targets of $5,000 & $5,750.

I have scaled out of my BTC:USD and ETH:USD shorts capitalizing on a very nice profit and leaving a portion in play just in case $4,000 breaks down. If that happens then I will have no problem holding onto my spot BTC' and if we do get a strong bounce then I will have no problem holding onto the small short positions that remain open.

If we do get a strong bounce then watch for a serious alt selloff. People will be FOMO’ing back into BTC’ and I expect support to evaporate very quickly. Capitalizing on BTC:USD and ETH:USD shorts and then putting that profit into alt:btc shorts while buying spot BTC as a hedge seems like a great trade over the next 1 - 24 hours. (for ex: short ETH:BTC, LTC:BTC, XRP:BTC, EOS:BTC and then buy spot BTC').