There's a lot going on on this chart, so don't worry, I'll explain it.
You guys already know how bearish I am, and that I do believe BTC will hit the lower trend line of this triangle again and bounce before we hit $5k and bounce again. BUT, I'd be doing a disservice if I didn't consider this bullish view. I've been working with bullish scenarios and seeing which one is the most likely to occur.
I think this one would be the best alternate to my bearish view (look at related articles).
In short:
Bullish View:
1) Currently bounce $9580
2) Drop to $8200
3) Next bull run to $11,543
What invalidates bullish view:
1) A drop below $7800
2) No break of the blue support line
This means that we need to go lower to go as high as we want. A continuation of this downtrend is definitely of a higher probability as of now. Oddly enough, my bearish post (Does the BTC daily MACD Trend Continue) shows that we may bounce at the $8200 level before continuing the downtrend.
Chart Explanation:
Head and Shoulders:
Right now we are working on a head and shoulders pattern, and if we break the blue support line, then the formation is valid and we will drop to the mid to low $8k range, specifically $8208.
Williams %R:
In a way, this indicator shows the strength of the trend along with peaks and valleys where we may need a pull back or bounce. Right now we've already broken the 50 line, which is a hint that we may continue this downtrend. IF it crosses the 80 line (at the bottom), then that is a bearish signal that the downtrend may continue. But if we stop before then, then thats a bullish signal that the uptrend may restart.
OBV:
The volume on this trend has been very low, and its an indication that we may fall back down (one reason why I'm bearish). However, there is a trendline here for this downtrend, and the OBV is showing room to continue upward to that downtrend line. We're getting bearish divergence all over the place on multiple indicators, so to me, that will be a hard task.
Ichimoku Cloud: (Conservative Settings on the Ichi Cloud are being used)
So, if you are unfamiliar with the Ichimoku clouds, its okay, its actually pretty simple. The Cloud itself can act as either a support or resistance. And the orange line (Kijun-sen) often acts as a support line. Well here's a strategy to the Ichi Clouds, when you close a candle inside the cloud, you can often target the other side of the cloud. Not only that, but when the opposing side of the cloud is flat like it is on the chart. It usually acts as a magnet, attracting the price to that point. These strategies don't always work, BUT, if we gain support at the Kijun-sen (orange line) and bounce, then that may be a good indication that we do head to the $11,500 target.
Trend Lines:
Right now we're in a big triangle. That white dotted resistance is going to be a tough one to break for now. along with that, the blue dotted resistance will be a tough one to break as well, especially if the support falls through. Right now, trend lines are working against BTC and it will be a hard task to reach $11,5k.
Overall, like I've said, I'm bearish and I don't think this will play out. BUT, it is an option that we must consider, and there are enough supporting claims that this can happen.
You guys already know how bearish I am, and that I do believe BTC will hit the lower trend line of this triangle again and bounce before we hit $5k and bounce again. BUT, I'd be doing a disservice if I didn't consider this bullish view. I've been working with bullish scenarios and seeing which one is the most likely to occur.
I think this one would be the best alternate to my bearish view (look at related articles).
In short:
Bullish View:
1) Currently bounce $9580
2) Drop to $8200
3) Next bull run to $11,543
What invalidates bullish view:
1) A drop below $7800
2) No break of the blue support line
This means that we need to go lower to go as high as we want. A continuation of this downtrend is definitely of a higher probability as of now. Oddly enough, my bearish post (Does the BTC daily MACD Trend Continue) shows that we may bounce at the $8200 level before continuing the downtrend.
Chart Explanation:
Head and Shoulders:
Right now we are working on a head and shoulders pattern, and if we break the blue support line, then the formation is valid and we will drop to the mid to low $8k range, specifically $8208.
Williams %R:
In a way, this indicator shows the strength of the trend along with peaks and valleys where we may need a pull back or bounce. Right now we've already broken the 50 line, which is a hint that we may continue this downtrend. IF it crosses the 80 line (at the bottom), then that is a bearish signal that the downtrend may continue. But if we stop before then, then thats a bullish signal that the uptrend may restart.
OBV:
The volume on this trend has been very low, and its an indication that we may fall back down (one reason why I'm bearish). However, there is a trendline here for this downtrend, and the OBV is showing room to continue upward to that downtrend line. We're getting bearish divergence all over the place on multiple indicators, so to me, that will be a hard task.
Ichimoku Cloud: (Conservative Settings on the Ichi Cloud are being used)
So, if you are unfamiliar with the Ichimoku clouds, its okay, its actually pretty simple. The Cloud itself can act as either a support or resistance. And the orange line (Kijun-sen) often acts as a support line. Well here's a strategy to the Ichi Clouds, when you close a candle inside the cloud, you can often target the other side of the cloud. Not only that, but when the opposing side of the cloud is flat like it is on the chart. It usually acts as a magnet, attracting the price to that point. These strategies don't always work, BUT, if we gain support at the Kijun-sen (orange line) and bounce, then that may be a good indication that we do head to the $11,500 target.
Trend Lines:
Right now we're in a big triangle. That white dotted resistance is going to be a tough one to break for now. along with that, the blue dotted resistance will be a tough one to break as well, especially if the support falls through. Right now, trend lines are working against BTC and it will be a hard task to reach $11,5k.
Overall, like I've said, I'm bearish and I don't think this will play out. BUT, it is an option that we must consider, and there are enough supporting claims that this can happen.
Commento:
Blue support broken.
Commento:
Updated wave count
Updated wave count
Commento:
Alternate extension and target.
Alternate extension and target.
Commento:
Signals are bearish as shit. There is no way in living hell we are going to jump to $11.5k now. This bullish idea was good while it lasted. Still expecting a decent bounce above $8200.
Signals are bearish as shit. There is no way in living hell we are going to jump to $11.5k now. This bullish idea was good while it lasted. Still expecting a decent bounce above $8200.
These two scenarios for the short-term now that we've kind of established a support. The lines tell what to do where. ONLY LONG IF WE GET BULLISH DIVERGENCE WITH A BREAK