Energy - which way are we headed?

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Energy does not look good right now. XLE+XOP has an inverse correlation to the gold/oil ratio. The two only move into neutral and positive correlations for brief periods before one of them changes direction. Additionally, when the gold/oil ratio crosses 30 we’ve seen energy prices begin to fall to more extreme lows.

The technicals above indicate gold is continuing higher. If we’re patient, this should lead to a very strong buying opportunity in energy.

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Oil recently tested and rejected the 200SMA. This makes it more likely that we see another test of the green AVWAP tied to the covid low than a retest of the red one from the March 2022 high.

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