Strangle on XLE (58% probability)

5 gen 2018

With the strong move to the upside, I am betting that we are starting a new auction between 78 and the 71 levels. So with an Implied volatility Rank of 37, I sold a Strangle at the 30 deltas for a $1.36 credit. As long as the price stays between $78.35 and $71.65, we will be making money.

The Trade:
Short 73 Puts
Short 77 Calls
Credit $1.36 per contract
58% Probability of profit

5 gen 2018

Trade attivo

Will look to close at $0.68 for 50% profit of the credit received.

12 gen 2018

Trade attivo

Our Call is getting tested, So to defend and reduce my cost basis I Rolled up the 73 Put (Bought back the 73 Strike Put and Sold the 77 Strike Put) for an additional $1.03 Credit.

So far we have collected $1.36 + $1.03 = $2.39

The Expected Move is +/-2.48 in the next 35 days Shown in the Gold area.

12 gen 2018

Nota

Now I have Extended the break-even to the upside and my new break-evens are $79.39 and $74.61.

5 feb 2018

Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto

With 11 days to go, I didn't wanted to keep this position so I closed it for a loss.