LupaCapital

XLM USD - Forecast on track

Long
COINBASE:XLMUSD   Stellar
Hello Traders and analysts.


Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour


See the previous analysis here:

XLM USD Monthly Imbalances
With a small amount of data here, where price creates a new all time high, this is considered a daily, weekly or monthly imbalance so long as price retraces back to a zone e.g. a daily imbalance candle and fills a wick upon an aligning Fibonacci level.

These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of $0.60, this was also a structural level of -0.618 Fibonacci extension .
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around $0.60-0.41 established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a all time high*, whereby $0.43 was structural point where price was, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move.

Previous:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/j/jwWQWyiE.png

Price has now established the monthly imbalance where price will be able to correct and continue to create new all time highs.
Please note - the Monthly imbalance is wide - with respect to $0.20 cents. The reason for this is due to the scope of the imbalance on hand being established* no month thus far has provided a fractal structure to indicate the probability taking over.

Weekly imbalances
The imbalances are clear here, with two in efficiencies identified.
1. - The upper newly created all time high has provided a correctional move where the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement is in play.
2. - The imbalance wick between $0.38 - 0.30 needed filling as part of a engineer low for the imbalance to take effect for further longs.

This was my previous analysis: March 14th.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/q/Qq5t0vAm.png

Previous daily imbalances:
The Daily imbalances are showing a rally base rally correctional wave formation for those who look at wave patterns. However the path is a clear indicator of Imbalance, fresh high, imbalance fill, create a new imbalance and create a new fresh wick imbalance for price to fill and hold the market structure.
Currently price is looking to create lower lows while being squeezed out to create a low discounted imbalance change over between the sellers and buyers. Here price will be monitored for additional positions.
https://tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OdHle66e.png

Current Daily imbalances:

This is how the current formation is looking using the flag parallel channel formation.
While this is not a normal tool an imbalance trader would use it is a definitely insightful tool to highlight ranges which provide opportunities to add positions using the daily timeframe - where looking to buy and sell upon a rising range.


Eight hour imbalances
Here are the two imbalances price is currently ranging between.
Note price is on the upward path to retest the all time high.

Cross asset comparison using the 2 week time frame
Each asset here has produced the same formation
but with a relative price swing - which is respective to the asset in question.
Swings may be visible to "volatility" however a smaller price from $1 to 0.50 is 50% far
more dramatic than $200 to $170.
The boxed zone is an interesting pathway following ETH. As ETH provides a strong weekly and month imbalance - this will determine great pivot points of reference which align to the imbalance.

Taking a look at Ethereum and Stellar - understand the correlation pattern the two coins have are very closely correlated. Keep an eye on how the more expensive asset moves affecting Stellar.

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Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
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Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
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