Investment_ Yes Bank
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Namaste!
Yes Bank has been a favourite stock for retail public. Due to it's penny price, it attracts a lot of retail attention.
I think it is a good time to invest in Yes Bank because of following reasons.
1. According to me, any retail person will think of Yes Bank and Idea, if he has given a choice to buy some large-cap stocks. Generally, businesses like telecom, aviation, manufacturing, automobile, etc hasn't been a good wealth creators, just look at the history.
Whereas, pharma, banks and financial institutions, services (IT) and technology, etc has been very good wealth creators. So Idea being a telecom company, it is to be avoided for now. So we have only one choice left, that is Yes Bank.
2. Yes Bank suffered a huge huge downfall in the stock prices, when a fraud of around Rs 5000 crores has been reported. The promoters provided loans to the businesses, which had weak fundamentals and without determining repayment risks.
3. RBI doesn't want people to doubt on banking system, so it ordered (SBIN and LICI on behalf of the government) and others (HDFC, ICICI) etc to save the Yes Bank. Now SBIN is the largest shareholder with 30% holding in Yes Bank.
4. Banks has been a good wealth creators, thanks to booming economy and financial system of India. So, I thoroughly think that Yes Bank stock prices will rebound.
5. The worst case scenario would be, Yes Bank to be acquired by some other private bank. I don't think it will be acquired by SBIN or any other govt owned companies, because the government is already selling its stakes in public sector undertakings.
Just look at the worst case scenario at Satyam Computers. It had been acquired by Mahindra, at a penny price after reporting "window-dressing" of financial statements. Now, it's shareholders would have got Tech Mahindra shares and it is among the good wealth creators.
Conclusion: Investment at current prices is fine. Yes Bank might be a good pick for a portfolio, along with other strong companies to maximize overall returns. Some ventures capitals generally invest in around 10 risky start-ups, 8 of them fail but 2 of them multiply the capital 20 fold, they still make good money in the end. Yes Bank has a very high reward potential due to it's current price. Making money via investing requires patience, strong self discipline, risk appetite, etc, so invest wisely.
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment does not guarantee a fixed return due to volatile nature of markets and may result in a loss. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
Yes Bank has been a favourite stock for retail public. Due to it's penny price, it attracts a lot of retail attention.
I think it is a good time to invest in Yes Bank because of following reasons.
1. According to me, any retail person will think of Yes Bank and Idea, if he has given a choice to buy some large-cap stocks. Generally, businesses like telecom, aviation, manufacturing, automobile, etc hasn't been a good wealth creators, just look at the history.
Whereas, pharma, banks and financial institutions, services (IT) and technology, etc has been very good wealth creators. So Idea being a telecom company, it is to be avoided for now. So we have only one choice left, that is Yes Bank.
2. Yes Bank suffered a huge huge downfall in the stock prices, when a fraud of around Rs 5000 crores has been reported. The promoters provided loans to the businesses, which had weak fundamentals and without determining repayment risks.
3. RBI doesn't want people to doubt on banking system, so it ordered (SBIN and LICI on behalf of the government) and others (HDFC, ICICI) etc to save the Yes Bank. Now SBIN is the largest shareholder with 30% holding in Yes Bank.
4. Banks has been a good wealth creators, thanks to booming economy and financial system of India. So, I thoroughly think that Yes Bank stock prices will rebound.
5. The worst case scenario would be, Yes Bank to be acquired by some other private bank. I don't think it will be acquired by SBIN or any other govt owned companies, because the government is already selling its stakes in public sector undertakings.
Just look at the worst case scenario at Satyam Computers. It had been acquired by Mahindra, at a penny price after reporting "window-dressing" of financial statements. Now, it's shareholders would have got Tech Mahindra shares and it is among the good wealth creators.
Conclusion: Investment at current prices is fine. Yes Bank might be a good pick for a portfolio, along with other strong companies to maximize overall returns. Some ventures capitals generally invest in around 10 risky start-ups, 8 of them fail but 2 of them multiply the capital 20 fold, they still make good money in the end. Yes Bank has a very high reward potential due to it's current price. Making money via investing requires patience, strong self discipline, risk appetite, etc, so invest wisely.
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment does not guarantee a fixed return due to volatile nature of markets and may result in a loss. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
Nota
This share will start booming when it will report consistent EPS for consecutive 3 years.Nota
There is a term in US called "too big to fail". It is the term used when the government come in front to bail out the "very big corporations". The government needs taxes like income tax, indirect taxes (which is only possible in the booming economy), the economy needs money supply, and private banks kind of create money supply if not help in creating. Yes Bank should survive considering these facts. What do you think?Nota
How price action confirms bullishness:Bull1: 13 Sep 2021 weekly candle, lows sustained means the bulls who bought here are stronger.
Bull2: 04 Apr 2022 weekly, around 40% bulls exited, but 60% held it strong even after closing below this candle.
Bull3: 01 Aug 2022 weekly, indecision candle, but bulls were strongest and didn't even let the price touch the low.
Bull4: 05 Dec 2022 weekly, a breakout candle with increased volume. Bull4 are very strong here until price close at or below Rs 17.25 on weekly basis, but bull1,2 and 3 are still holding their positions.
Nota
If ever it come, Rs 8.55 is a price worth adding more shares.Nota
FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) have been increasing the stakes in the company since Mar 2020 (it was 1.86% then, now 23.24%), whereas DII (like SBIN, ICICIBANK, LICI, etc) are decreasing stakes. As I always say, market is a zero sum game, any one of them have to bear "opportunity cost". In which side you're?Nota
P/E of 35-36 acted as a resistance in Yes Bank share. This has happened thrice (in Oct 2007, Aug 2019 and (Oct 2022-now). What does it mean to me is that the stock might take longer time (time-correction) to show any results (upside in stock price).Nota
I expect anyone who is reading my writings to know that there is nothing "certain" in the markets. Neither the %gain on stock nor "out-performance" or "under-performance". There is a risk and opportunity cost involved in both, buying and selling. Selling at any price can often result in "opportunity loss" when the stock moves higher and higher. Human psychology is a culprit here. For e.g. I post any stock which seems undervalued or overvalued to me on tradingview. When anyone makes money on that, they wont appreciate me "a single word". But when they lose or it results in opportunity loss, they are bound to blame me. I don't criticize any person, because I know their psychology has defeated them. At last, there is nothing like "easy money" in the markets. The survival of the fittest holds absolutely true here.Nota
Disclosure: I have around 5% of my portfolio in Yes Bank at avg price of Rs 16.92.
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