Corn futures price chiseling could head lower
Yield reports from August USDA’s reports dropped the fresh crop corn yield by 2.4 bushels/acre to 175.1. Since there were no new acreages it also set the potential output to 15.111 B bushels.
Worldwide the old crop puts the Brazilian output at 135 MMT increase of +2 MMT. Brazil's CONAB raised their corn production forecast by 2.2 to 130 MMT on better 2nd crop yields. Old crop carryout was a tad bit lower at 298 MMT. Among new crop outputs, Ukraine was 2.5 MMT higher amidst export uncertainties from that region while the EU combined were 3.7 MMT lower while China and South Africa both cut by 3 MMT and 1.7 MMT respectively. China’s authority left corn production unchanged from their prior month estimate, while adding that inclement weather likely could affect output and quality of crops. In the world front, that lowers the total output 11 MMT to 1.214 B MT. Ending stocks were 3 MMT tighter to 311, compared to the 314 MMT expected going in. Total supply was a net 155 mbu lower after a 55 mbu looser old crop carryout picture. USDA trimmed old crop FSI by 20 and exports by 25. For new crop demand, USDA cut feed and residual by 25, FSI by 20, and exports by 50. That tightened stocks by 60 mbu to 2.202 billion.
There are a couple of Fib measures on that measures as a continuation Fib extension and the other as a peak to retrace and we consider both of them valid since they point to a potential lower set of profit targets one at 466 and the other a bit higher at 468.
Worldwide the old crop puts the Brazilian output at 135 MMT increase of +2 MMT. Brazil's CONAB raised their corn production forecast by 2.2 to 130 MMT on better 2nd crop yields. Old crop carryout was a tad bit lower at 298 MMT. Among new crop outputs, Ukraine was 2.5 MMT higher amidst export uncertainties from that region while the EU combined were 3.7 MMT lower while China and South Africa both cut by 3 MMT and 1.7 MMT respectively. China’s authority left corn production unchanged from their prior month estimate, while adding that inclement weather likely could affect output and quality of crops. In the world front, that lowers the total output 11 MMT to 1.214 B MT. Ending stocks were 3 MMT tighter to 311, compared to the 314 MMT expected going in. Total supply was a net 155 mbu lower after a 55 mbu looser old crop carryout picture. USDA trimmed old crop FSI by 20 and exports by 25. For new crop demand, USDA cut feed and residual by 25, FSI by 20, and exports by 50. That tightened stocks by 60 mbu to 2.202 billion.
There are a couple of Fib measures on that measures as a continuation Fib extension and the other as a peak to retrace and we consider both of them valid since they point to a potential lower set of profit targets one at 466 and the other a bit higher at 468.
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