Looks like loan officers will be selling 2 and 3 percent fixed mortgages before long. ;)
This is an update to my previous idea:
If you're a fan of Fibonacci, then you're already well aware of the significance of the 1.618 and .618 lines.
If you're not. Here's a super simple...
Here we are witnessing the minimum target from a ABC perspective since the January highs at 2.799%.
This sequence from here on should be viewed as corrective and will be a shallow retrace in the broader trend. There is little support here so the key levels to watch in play remain 2.286%. We may see some choppy waters here, however, the potential to retrace as...
US Yields are likely going to follow the same path as Japanese Yields have taken over the past few decades. In this update i discuss why I believe this to be, and I also break down the chart using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis to try and how this will play out.
10 year yield is dropping with a quickness to match only stock sell-offs.
Might be a good time to look at some REITS? Rates look to me like they will decline for the next 2-3 years.
Yields hit .382 fib support today and bounced very slightly higher.
News of the end of the Gov shut down could provide the catalyst needed to send yields back to .236 level...
Top black line is the major resistance line. If yields break this, the US is majorly fucked and signals an end to "cheap money" at a time with debts and unfunded liabilities at all time highs.
Yellow line is the support line of the 37+ year channel going back to the early 1980s.
Red line is the more recent resistance line which began in June 2007 at the eve of...
1) Due to the zig-zag nature of the yield values, historically, it seems proper to use Elliott-waves.
2) There was a rate-hike environment in the past which seems similar to the current price action. Coincidentally the wave 5 drop corresponds to the year 2020; 2020 is the year many talking heads are calling for a US recession.
3) In recent years bonds and stocks...
US 10yr Bonds attempting a successful break out after completing a 'W' formation. Bullish T.K cross is in play now accompanied by a bullish green kumo cloud. Gonna need a full retest for further solid confirmation of future price action direction.
The 10 year yield is currently hovering around the 3.2 to 3.3% support levels. I expect wave 5 to push past these levels and reach up to 3.75-3.80% in yield by August 2019 (or sooner). At that point I expect a new round of QE from the Fed.
=> Yields are creeping higher one more time and we are starting to see major moves across equity markets as a result.
=> Smart money is afraid of inflation returning and therefore selling bonds is the go-to. This is causing yields to rise and because we are reaching the end of the road on QE, Central banks won't be buying bonds anymore and want to diminish their...
A test then break of 3 year trend line in RSI weekly. Been bearish bonds since August, this does not look good for gold as the gold story was mostly a yield story. I believe this will end up being a counter trend move with bond yields much lower than they are today, but that remains to seen. Best to stay out of the way and watch this thing play itself out.
We are in the Trigger Zone on the Notes and will be watching short term time frames for a trigger short. If we get the trigger then our final target will be a break of the lower wedge. REMEMBER: NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!