Quant Stats: Alpha, Beta, R2

8 ore fa

Quant Stats Indicator for TradingView: Alpha, Beta, and R-Squared
Overview
The Quant Stats Indicator is a professional-grade Pine Script tool designed for quantitative traders and hedge fund managers who need real-time analysis of stock or ETF performance against a benchmark using three fundamental CAPM metrics: Beta, R-Squared, and Alpha.

This indicator calculates three critical measurements that answer every quant trader's core questions: How volatile is this asset relative to my benchmark? How much of its performance is independent of the benchmark? And how much excess return am I achieving after adjusting for risk?

The Three Metrics Explained
Beta (β) measures systematic risk and volatility relative to your chosen benchmark. A Beta of 1.0 means the asset moves in lockstep with the benchmark. A Beta above 1.0 indicates higher volatility—if the market rises 10%, a Beta-1.5 asset should rise 15%. Conversely, a Beta below 1.0 indicates lower volatility, making it a defensive position. This metric helps you understand how much market exposure you're truly taking.

R-Squared (R²) quantifies what percentage of an asset's price movement can be explained by benchmark movements. An R² of 0.95 means 95% of the asset's moves are driven by the benchmark, leaving only 5% unexplained. Conversely, an R² of 0.2 means 80% of the asset's movement is independent of the benchmark. This distinction is crucial: high R² is desirable for passive index tracking but indicates weak alpha potential; low R² reveals genuine independent returns, exactly what active managers seek.

Alpha (α) reveals Jensen's Alpha—the excess risk-adjusted return after accounting for the return you "should" earn given your Beta exposure. A positive Alpha of 15% means you're outperforming the market by 15 percentage points after adjusting for systematic risk. This is the holy grail of stock picking: pure skill-driven excess return, not luck from market exposure.

How to Use It
Configure four key inputs: your benchmark ticker (default SPY, but use QQQ for tech-focused analysis or sector-specific ETFs), the lookback period in days, and the risk-free rate reflecting current Treasury yields. The lookback period is critical. Use 20 days for tactical trading to capture short-term sentiment and beta spikes; use 63 days for swing trading and quarterly rebalancing; use 252 days for structural asset allocation decisions.

The indicator plots Beta as a blue line, R-Squared as a red shaded background area, and Alpha as a green line in a sub-panel. Reference gridlines appear at Beta = 1.0 (market-equivalent volatility) and Alpha = 0.0 (breakeven performance), making interpretation intuitive.

Practical Applications
For swing traders monitoring a 63-day window, seek positions with low Beta (below 0.8) and positive Alpha—these are defensive winners. Avoid high Beta (above 1.2) with low R² unless you specifically want high-volatility speculation. Long/short hedge funds should use a 20-day lookback to detect regime changes: sudden Beta spikes often precede correlation breakdowns, while R² collapses signal rising idiosyncratic risk requiring immediate rebalancing.

For ETF portfolio construction, high R² (above 0.95) indicates index-tracking that doesn't justify active management fees. Low R² (below 0.3) combined with positive Alpha reveals genuine active management skill. The sweet spot is moderate Beta (0.5–0.8) with low R² and positive Alpha—a true diversifier that reduces portfolio volatility while generating independent returns.

Critical Interpretation Rules
A common mistake is assuming high R² is always desirable. It isn't. Passive index funds naturally have high R²; active managers should target low R² with high Alpha. Similarly, don't assume Alpha above 10% is sustainable—short-term Alpha (20–100 days) is inherently volatile and often represents temporary mispricings rather than repeatable skill. Always pair Beta analysis with R² interpretation; Beta alone ignores idiosyncratic risk, liquidity constraints, and tail risk.

Configuration Recommendations
Conservative investors should use SPY as benchmark with a 252-day lookback, targeting Alpha above 3% and Beta below 0.8. Growth-oriented portfolios might use QQQ with a 63-day lookback, targeting 8–12% Alpha and tolerating Beta up to 1.3. Hedge funds pursuing market-neutral strategies should use SPY with a 20-day lookback, set the risk-free rate to 2% (anticipating rate cuts), and target 15%+ Alpha while maintaining Beta below 0.3.

Important Limitations
The indicator is backward-looking; historical statistical relationships may not persist. Shorter lookback periods are noisier but more responsive; longer periods smooth noise but lag regime changes. Choosing the wrong benchmark completely invalidates analysis. Finally, the indicator doesn't account for tail risk or extreme market events where correlations spike unpredictably and Beta becomes unreliable.

Use this tool to separate signal from noise and identify true alpha generators. Apply it consistently, validate results against official fund factsheets, and monitor for 2–4 weeks before making significant portfolio decisions.

7 ore fa

Note di rilascio

Quant Stats Indicator for TradingView: Alpha, Beta, and R-Squared
Overview
The Quant Stats Indicator is a professional-grade Pine Script tool designed for quantitative traders and hedge fund managers who need real-time analysis of stock or ETF performance against a benchmark using three fundamental CAPM metrics: Beta, R-Squared, and Alpha.

This indicator calculates three critical measurements that answer every quant trader's core questions: How volatile is this asset relative to my benchmark? How much of its performance is independent of the benchmark? And how much excess return am I achieving after adjusting for risk?

The Three Metrics Explained
Beta (β) measures systematic risk and volatility relative to your chosen benchmark. A Beta of 1.0 means the asset moves in lockstep with the benchmark. A Beta above 1.0 indicates higher volatility—if the market rises 10%, a Beta-1.5 asset should rise 15%. Conversely, a Beta below 1.0 indicates lower volatility, making it a defensive position. This metric helps you understand how much market exposure you're truly taking.

R-Squared (R²) quantifies what percentage of an asset's price movement can be explained by benchmark movements. An R² of 0.95 means 95% of the asset's moves are driven by the benchmark, leaving only 5% unexplained. Conversely, an R² of 0.2 means 80% of the asset's movement is independent of the benchmark. This distinction is crucial: high R² is desirable for passive index tracking but indicates weak alpha potential; low R² reveals genuine independent returns, exactly what active managers seek.

Alpha (α) reveals Jensen's Alpha—the excess risk-adjusted return after accounting for the return you "should" earn given your Beta exposure. A positive Alpha of 15% means you're outperforming the market by 15 percentage points after adjusting for systematic risk. This is the holy grail of stock picking: pure skill-driven excess return, not luck from market exposure.

How to Use It
Configure four key inputs: your benchmark ticker (default SPY, but use QQQ for tech-focused analysis or sector-specific ETFs), the lookback period in days, and the risk-free rate reflecting current Treasury yields. The lookback period is critical. Use 20 days for tactical trading to capture short-term sentiment and beta spikes; use 63 days for swing trading and quarterly rebalancing; use 252 days for structural asset allocation decisions.

The indicator plots Beta as a blue line, R-Squared as a red shaded background area, and Alpha as a green line in a sub-panel. Reference gridlines appear at Beta = 1.0 (market-equivalent volatility) and Alpha = 0.0 (breakeven performance), making interpretation intuitive.

Practical Applications
For swing traders monitoring a 63-day window, seek positions with low Beta (below 0.8) and positive Alpha—these are defensive winners. Avoid high Beta (above 1.2) with low R² unless you specifically want high-volatility speculation. Long/short hedge funds should use a 20-day lookback to detect regime changes: sudden Beta spikes often precede correlation breakdowns, while R² collapses signal rising idiosyncratic risk requiring immediate rebalancing.

For ETF portfolio construction, high R² (above 0.95) indicates index-tracking that doesn't justify active management fees. Low R² (below 0.3) combined with positive Alpha reveals genuine active management skill. The sweet spot is moderate Beta (0.5–0.8) with low R² and positive Alpha—a true diversifier that reduces portfolio volatility while generating independent returns.

Critical Interpretation Rules
A common mistake is assuming high R² is always desirable. It isn't. Passive index funds naturally have high R²; active managers should target low R² with high Alpha. Similarly, don't assume Alpha above 10% is sustainable—short-term Alpha (20–100 days) is inherently volatile and often represents temporary mispricings rather than repeatable skill. Always pair Beta analysis with R² interpretation; Beta alone ignores idiosyncratic risk, liquidity constraints, and tail risk.

Configuration Recommendations
Conservative investors should use SPY as benchmark with a 252-day lookback, targeting Alpha above 3% and Beta below 0.8. Growth-oriented portfolios might use QQQ with a 63-day lookback, targeting 8–12% Alpha and tolerating Beta up to 1.3. Hedge funds pursuing market-neutral strategies should use SPY with a 20-day lookback, set the risk-free rate to 2% (anticipating rate cuts), and target 15%+ Alpha while maintaining Beta below 0.3.

Important Limitations
The indicator is backward-looking; historical statistical relationships may not persist. Shorter lookback periods are noisier but more responsive; longer periods smooth noise but lag regime changes. Choosing the wrong benchmark completely invalidates analysis. Finally, the indicator doesn't account for tail risk or extreme market events where correlations spike unpredictably and Beta becomes unreliable.

Use this tool to separate signal from noise and identify true alpha generators. Apply it consistently, validate results against official fund factsheets, and monitor for 2–4 weeks before making significant portfolio decisions.

2 ore fa

Note di rilascio

added price labels

2 ore fa

Note di rilascio

Bug fixing

2 ore fa

Note di rilascio

bug fix

1 ora fa

Note di rilascio

script clean up

1 ora fa

Note di rilascio

Script Cleaning