OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Market Probability Dashboard
📊 Market Probability Dashboard
Market Probability Dashboard is a context-driven analytical tool designed to help traders assess directional bias and market conditions using a probabilistic framework.
It does not generate buy/sell signals. Instead, it provides a structured view of bullish vs bearish probability, market regime, and execution readiness — allowing traders to make informed discretionary decisions.
🔍 What This Indicator Does
This indicator estimates the probability of directional movement in the market by combining:
Futures-based momentum and volatility (execution focus)
Spot-based structure and regime (context focus)
A bounded probability engine with adaptive caps
A visual state model for decision clarity
The output is a dashboard + histogram that summarizes market conditions in real time.
🧠 Probability Model (High-Level)
The probability engine follows these principles:
Baseline neutrality: Starts from 50%
Momentum adjustment: Futures EMA alignment nudges probability
Volatility awareness: Expanding volatility increases confidence
Regime control: Spot-derived regime limits probability extremes
Clamping: Probabilities are intentionally bounded to avoid overconfidence
All probabilities are relative, not predictive.
⏱ Timeframe Logic (Auto Mode)
When Auto Timeframe Engine is enabled:
Execution timeframe = chart timeframe
Context timeframe = automatically derived higher timeframe
Regime timeframe = higher-order structure timeframe
This design helps reduce confusion between execution vs context, especially for intraday traders.You may disable Auto Mode and use fixed timeframes if preferred.
📊 Visual Layout Explained
1️⃣ Probability Histogram (Bottom Pane)
Green bars → Bullish probability dominance
Red bars → Bearish probability dominance
Yellow zone (45–55) → No-trade / balance area
Bar opacity increases with conviction strength
This view helps you see how probability evolved historically, not just the latest value.
2️⃣ Dashboard Panel (Top-Right)
Field Meaning
ACTION Current market participation state
UP BIAS % Bullish probability (bounded)
MARKET MODE Regime derived from spot structure
TRADE TF Execution timeframe
CONTEXT TF Higher timeframe context
The table is intentionally minimal to remain readable on all chart sizes.
🧭 Decision State Logic (Interpretation Guide)
The indicator classifies conditions into states, not signals:
State Interpretation
NO-TRADE Balanced or range-bound conditions
SCALP-ALLOW Short-term participation possible with reduced expectations
TRADE-LIGHT Directional bias present, moderate conviction
TRADE-PRESS Strong alignment and momentum
EXIT Momentum deterioration or probability reversal
These are context labels, not trade instructions.
🧑💻 How to Use This Indicator
Best used as:
A bias filter before taking trades
A context layer alongside price action
A confidence gauge, not a trigger
Recommended pairing:
Price structure
Volume / VWAP
Personal risk rules
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This indicator is for analytical and educational purposes only.It does not provide buy/sell signals.It does not predict future price. All probability values are estimates, not guarantees.Trading involves risk. Always validate decisions using your own analysis and risk management.
Market Probability Dashboard is a context-driven analytical tool designed to help traders assess directional bias and market conditions using a probabilistic framework.
It does not generate buy/sell signals. Instead, it provides a structured view of bullish vs bearish probability, market regime, and execution readiness — allowing traders to make informed discretionary decisions.
🔍 What This Indicator Does
This indicator estimates the probability of directional movement in the market by combining:
Futures-based momentum and volatility (execution focus)
Spot-based structure and regime (context focus)
A bounded probability engine with adaptive caps
A visual state model for decision clarity
The output is a dashboard + histogram that summarizes market conditions in real time.
🧠 Probability Model (High-Level)
The probability engine follows these principles:
Baseline neutrality: Starts from 50%
Momentum adjustment: Futures EMA alignment nudges probability
Volatility awareness: Expanding volatility increases confidence
Regime control: Spot-derived regime limits probability extremes
Clamping: Probabilities are intentionally bounded to avoid overconfidence
All probabilities are relative, not predictive.
⏱ Timeframe Logic (Auto Mode)
When Auto Timeframe Engine is enabled:
Execution timeframe = chart timeframe
Context timeframe = automatically derived higher timeframe
Regime timeframe = higher-order structure timeframe
This design helps reduce confusion between execution vs context, especially for intraday traders.You may disable Auto Mode and use fixed timeframes if preferred.
📊 Visual Layout Explained
1️⃣ Probability Histogram (Bottom Pane)
Green bars → Bullish probability dominance
Red bars → Bearish probability dominance
Yellow zone (45–55) → No-trade / balance area
Bar opacity increases with conviction strength
This view helps you see how probability evolved historically, not just the latest value.
2️⃣ Dashboard Panel (Top-Right)
Field Meaning
ACTION Current market participation state
UP BIAS % Bullish probability (bounded)
MARKET MODE Regime derived from spot structure
TRADE TF Execution timeframe
CONTEXT TF Higher timeframe context
The table is intentionally minimal to remain readable on all chart sizes.
🧭 Decision State Logic (Interpretation Guide)
The indicator classifies conditions into states, not signals:
State Interpretation
NO-TRADE Balanced or range-bound conditions
SCALP-ALLOW Short-term participation possible with reduced expectations
TRADE-LIGHT Directional bias present, moderate conviction
TRADE-PRESS Strong alignment and momentum
EXIT Momentum deterioration or probability reversal
These are context labels, not trade instructions.
🧑💻 How to Use This Indicator
Best used as:
A bias filter before taking trades
A context layer alongside price action
A confidence gauge, not a trigger
Recommended pairing:
Price structure
Volume / VWAP
Personal risk rules
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This indicator is for analytical and educational purposes only.It does not provide buy/sell signals.It does not predict future price. All probability values are estimates, not guarantees.Trading involves risk. Always validate decisions using your own analysis and risk management.
Script open-source
Nello spirito di TradingView, l'autore di questo script lo ha reso open source, in modo che i trader possano esaminarne e verificarne la funzionalità. Complimenti all'autore! Sebbene sia possibile utilizzarlo gratuitamente, ricordiamo che la ripubblicazione del codice è soggetta al nostro Regolamento.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
Script open-source
Nello spirito di TradingView, l'autore di questo script lo ha reso open source, in modo che i trader possano esaminarne e verificarne la funzionalità. Complimenti all'autore! Sebbene sia possibile utilizzarlo gratuitamente, ricordiamo che la ripubblicazione del codice è soggetta al nostro Regolamento.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.