[SGM Auto Regressiv - significant lags only]

22 nov 2024

This Pine Script™ is designed for traders seeking advanced statistical analysis based on autoregressive (AR) models, with automatic filtering of significant lags according to a customizable confidence threshold.

Key Features:

AR(p) Model with Significance Filtering:
Only statistically significant lags (based on the selected confidence level) are included in the model calculations.
Coefficient Weighting Options:
Uniform weighting.
Weighting based on the t-statistic.
Visualization of Key Indicators:
Dynamic plotting of autoregressive values, upper and lower bounds (based on standard deviation).
Buy ("Buy") and Sell ("Sell") signals when values exceed the defined bounds.
Robust Analysis:
Calculation of statistical parameters: T-stat, p-value, skewness, kurtosis, r², and the Jarque-Bera test to assess the robustness and normality of residuals.
Summary of results displayed in a visual table for simplified interpretation.
Interactive Tables:
Display of lags, coefficients, t-statistics, p-values, and their significance via a dynamic table.
Overall robustness indicator and interpretation of results ("Good," "Non-significant," etc.).
Easy Customization:
Adjustable confidence level (90% to 99%).
Configurable lengths for moving average and standard deviation to fine-tune signal thresholds.

Benefits for Traders:
Effortless Analysis:
Automatically identifies significant relationships between past and present values, removing unnecessary assumptions.
Enhanced Accuracy:
Filters signals based on rigorous statistical criteria to avoid false signals.
Clear Visualization:
Interactive tables and plots to quickly understand critical parameters.

Default Configuration:
Confidence level: 95%.
Lag weighting: Uniform.
Moving average length: 20 periods.
Standard deviation length: 15 periods.
Usage Recommendations:
Ideal for analyzing volatile assets or identifying potential reversal zones.
Use alongside other indicators to confirm signals.