Uptrick: Z-Trend Bands

Overview
Uptrick: Z-Trend Bands is a Pine Script overlay crafted to capture high-probability mean-reversion opportunities. It dynamically plots upper and lower statistical bands around an EMA baseline by converting price deviations into z-scores. Once price moves outside these bands and then reenters, the indicator verifies that momentum is genuinely reversing via an EMA-smoothed RSI slope. Signal memory ensures only one entry per momentum swing, and traders receive clear, real-time feedback through customizable bar-coloring modes, a semi-transparent fill highlighting the statistical zone, concise “Up”/“Down” labels, and a live five-metric scoring table.

Introduction
Markets often oscillate between trending and reverting, and simple thresholds or static envelopes frequently misfire when volatility shifts. Standard deviation quantifies how “wide” recent price moves have been, and a z-score transforms each deviation into a measure of how rare it is relative to its own history. By anchoring these bands to an exponential moving average, the script maintains a fluid statistical envelope that adapts instantly to both calm and turbulent regimes. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) tracks momentum; smoothing RSI with an EMA and observing its slope filters out erratic spikes, ensuring that only genuine momentum flips—upward for longs and downward for shorts—qualify.

Purpose
This indicator is purpose-built for short-term mean-reversion traders operating on lower–timeframe charts. It reveals when price has strayed into the outer 5 percent of its recent range, signaling an increased likelihood of a bounce back toward fair value. Rather than firing on price alone, it demands that momentum follow suit: the smoothed RSI slope must flip in the opposite direction before any trade marker appears. This dual-filter approach dramatically reduces noise-driven, false setups. Traders then see immediate visual confirmation—bar colors that reflect the latest signal and age over time, clear entry labels, and an always-visible table of metric scores—so they can gauge both the validity and freshness of each signal at a glance.

Originality and Uniqueness
Uptrick: Z-Trend Bands stands apart from typical envelope or oscillator tools in four key ways. First, it employs fully normalized z-score bands, meaning ±2 always captures roughly the top and bottom 5 percent of moves, regardless of volatility regime. Second, it insists on two simultaneous conditions—price reentry into the bands and a confirming RSI slope flip—dramatically reducing whipsaw signals. Third, it uses slope-phase memory to lock out duplicate signals until momentum truly reverses again, enforcing disciplined entries. Finally, it offers four distinct bar-coloring schemes (solid reversal, fading reversal, exceeding bands, and classic heatmap) plus a dynamic scoring table, rather than a single, opaque alert, giving traders deep insight into every layer of analysis.

Why Each Component Was Picked
The EMA baseline was chosen for its blend of responsiveness—weighting recent price heavily—and smoothness, which filters market noise. Z-score deviation bands standardize price extremes relative to their own history, adapting automatically to shifting volatility so that “extreme” always means statistically rare. The RSI, smoothed with an EMA before slope calculation, captures true momentum shifts without the false spikes that raw RSI often produces. Slope-phase memory flags prevent repeated alerts within a single swing, curbing over-trading in choppy conditions. Bar-coloring modes provide flexible visual contexts—whether you prefer to track the latest reversal, see signal age, highlight every breakout, or view a continuous gradient—and the scoring table breaks down all five core checks for complete transparency.

Features
This indicator offers a suite of configurable visual and logical tools designed to make reversal signals both robust and transparent:

• Dynamic z-score bands that expand or contract in real time to reflect current volatility regimes, ensuring the outer ±zThreshold levels always represent statistically rare extremes.
  
  
• A smooth EMA baseline that weights recent price more heavily, serving as a fair-value anchor around which deviations are measured.
  
  
• EMA-smoothed RSI slope confirmation, which filters out erratic momentum spikes by first smoothing raw RSI and then requiring its bar-to-bar slope to flip before any signal is allowed.
  
  
• Slope-phase memory logic that locks out duplicate buy or sell markers until the RSI slope crosses back through zero, preventing over-trading during choppy swings.
  
  
• Four distinct bar-coloring modes—Reversal Solid, Reversal Fade, Exceeding Bands, Classic Heat—plus a “None” option, so traders can choose whether to highlight the latest signal, show signal age, emphasize breakout bars, or view a continuous heat gradient within the bands.
  
  
• A semi-transparent fill between the EMA and the upper/lower bands that visually frames the statistical zone and makes extremes immediately obvious.
  
  
• Concise “Up” and “Down” labels that plot exactly when price re-enters a band with confirming momentum, keeping chart clutter to a minimum.
  

• A real-time, five-metric scoring table (z-score, RSI slope, price vs. EMA, trend state, re-entry) that updates every two bars, displaying individual +1/–1/0 scores and an averaged Buy/Sell/Neutral verdict for complete transparency.
  

Calculations

• Compute the fair-value EMA over fairLen bars.
  
  
• Subtract that EMA from current price each bar to derive the raw deviation.
  
  
• Over zLen bars, calculate the rolling mean and standard deviation of those deviations.
  
  
• Convert each deviation into a z-score by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation.
  
  
• Plot the upper and lower bands at ±zThreshold × standard deviation around the EMA.
  
  
• Calculate raw RSI over rsiLen bars, then smooth it with an EMA of length rsiEmaLen.
  
  
• Derive the RSI slope by taking the difference between the current and previous smoothed RSI.
  
  
• Detect a potential reentry when price exits one of the bands on the prior bar and re-enters on the current bar.
  
  
• Require that reentry coincide with an RSI slope flip (positive for a lower-band reentry, negative for an upper-band reentry).
  
  
• On first valid reentry per momentum swing, fire a buy or sell signal and set a memory flag; reset that flag only when the RSI slope crosses back through zero.
  
  
• For each bar, assign scores of +1, –1, or 0 for the z-score direction, RSI slope, price vs. EMA, trend-state, and reentry status.
  
  
• Average those five scores; if the result exceeds +0.1, label “Buy,” if below –0.1, label “Sell,” otherwise “Neutral.”
  
  
• Update bar colors, the semi-transparent fill, reversal labels, and the scoring table every two bars to reflect the latest calculations.
  

How It Actually Works
On each new candle, the EMA baseline and band widths update to reflect current volatility. The RSI is smoothed and its slope recalculated. The script then looks back one bar to see if price exited either band and forward to see if it reentered. If that reentry coincides with an appropriate RSI slope flip—and no signal has yet been generated in that swing—a concise label appears. Bar colors refresh according to your selected mode, and the scoring table updates to show which of the five conditions passed or failed, along with the overall verdict. This process repeats seamlessly at each bar, giving traders a continuous feed of disciplined, statistically filtered reversal cues.

Inputs
All parameters are fully user-configurable, allowing you to tailor sensitivity, lookbacks, and visuals to your trading style:

• EMA length (fairLen): number of bars for the fair-value EMA; higher values smooth more but lag further behind price.
  
  
• Z-Score lookback (zLen): window for calculating the mean and standard deviation of price deviations; longer lookbacks reduce noise but respond more slowly to new volatility.
  
  
• Z-Score threshold (zThreshold): number of standard deviations defining the upper and lower bands; common default is 2.0 for roughly the outer 5 percent of moves.
  
  
• Source (src): choice of price series (close, hl2, etc.) used for EMA, deviation, and RSI calculations.
  
  
• RSI length (rsiLen): period for raw RSI calculation; shorter values react faster to momentum changes but can be choppier.
  
  
• RSI EMA length (rsiEmaLen): period for smoothing raw RSI before taking its slope; higher values filter more noise.
  
  
• Bar coloring mode (colorMode): select from None, Reversal Solid, Reversal Fade, Exceeding Bands, or Classic Heat to control how bars are shaded in relation to signals and band positions.
  
  
• Show signals (showSignals): toggle on-chart “Up” and “Down” labels for reversal entries.
  
  
• Show scoring table (enableTable): toggle the display of the five-metric breakdown table.
  
  
• Table position (tablePos): choose which corner (Top Left, Top Right, Bottom Left, Bottom Right) hosts the scoring table.
  

Conclusion
By merging a normalized z-score framework, momentum slope confirmation, disciplined signal memory, flexible visuals, and transparent scoring into one Pine Script overlay, Uptrick: Z-Trend Bands offers a powerful yet intuitive tool for intraday mean-reversion trading. Its adaptability to real-time volatility and multi-layered filter logic deliver clear, high-confidence reversal cues without the clutter or confusion of simpler indicators.

Disclaimer

This indicator is provided solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own testing and apply careful risk management before trading live.