NUPL Z-Score | Vistula LabsWhat is NUPL?
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is a fundamental on-chain metric used to evaluate the profit or loss state of a cryptocurrency's market participants, such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). It compares the current market capitalization—the total value of all coins at their current price—to the realized capitalization, which represents the average price at which all coins were last transacted on-chain.
Market Capitalization: Current price × circulating supply.
Realized Capitalization: The sum of the value of all coins based on the price at their last on-chain movement.
For Bitcoin (BTC):
NUPL = (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / Market Cap * 100
For Ethereum (ETH):
NUPL = (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / Market Cap
A positive NUPL indicates that the market holds unrealized profits, meaning the current value exceeds the price at which coins were last moved. A negative NUPL signals unrealized losses. Extreme NUPL values—high positives or low negatives—can suggest overvaluation (potential market tops) or undervaluation (potential market bottoms), respectively.
How NUPL is Calculated for BTC & ETH
This indicator calculates NUPL using data sourced from Glassnode and CoinMetrics:
For Bitcoin:
Market Cap: GLASSNODE:BTC_MARKETCAP
Realized Cap: COINMETRICS:BTC_MARKETCAPREAL
Formula: ((btc_market_cap - btc_market_cap_real) / btc_market_cap) * 100
For Ethereum:
Market Cap: GLASSNODE:ETH_MARKETCAP
Realized Cap: COINMETRICS:ETH_MARKETCAPREAL
Formula: ((eth_market_cap - eth_market_cap_real) / eth_market_cap) * 100
The indicator then transforms these NUPL values into a Z-Score, which measures how many standard deviations the current NUPL deviates from its historical average. The Z-Score calculation incorporates:
A customizable moving average of NUPL (options: SMA, EMA, DEMA, RMA, WMA, VWMA) over a user-defined length (default: 220 periods).
The standard deviation of NUPL over a specified lookback period (default: 200 periods).
Z-Score Formula:
Z-Score = (Current NUPL - Moving Average of NUPL) / Standard Deviation of NUPL
This normalization allows the indicator to highlight extreme market conditions regardless of the raw NUPL scale.
How This Indicator Can Be Used
Trend Following
The NUPL Z-Score indicator employs a trend-following system with adjustable thresholds to generate trading signals:
Long Signals: Triggered when the Z-Score crosses above the Long Threshold (default: 0.26).
Short Signals: Triggered when the Z-Score crosses below the Short Threshold (default: -0.62).
Visual Representations:
Green up-triangles: Indicate long entry points (plotted below the bar).
Red down-triangles: Indicate short entry points (plotted above the bar).
Color-coded elements:
Candles and Z-Score plot turn teal (#00ffdd) for long positions.
Candles and Z-Score plot turn magenta (#ff00bf) for short positions.
These signals leverage historical NUPL trends to identify potential momentum shifts, aiding traders in timing entries and exits.
Overbought/Oversold Conditions
The indicator flags extreme market states using additional thresholds:
Overbought Threshold (default: 3.0): When the Z-Score exceeds this level, the market may be significantly overvalued, hinting at potential selling pressure. Highlighted with a light magenta background (#ff00bf with 75% transparency).
Oversold Threshold (default: -2.0): When the Z-Score drops below this level, the market may be significantly undervalued, suggesting buying opportunities. Highlighted with a light teal background (#00ffdd with 75% transparency).
These extreme Z-Score levels have historically aligned with major market peaks and troughs, making them useful for medium- to long-term position management.
Customization Options
Traders can tailor the indicator to their preferences:
Cryptocurrency Source: Choose between BTC or ETH.
Moving Average Type: Select from SMA, EMA, DEMA, RMA, WMA, or VWMA.
Moving Average Length: Adjust the period for the NUPL moving average (default: 220).
Z-Score Lookback Period: Set the historical window for Z-Score calculation (default: 200).
Thresholds: Fine-tune values for: Long Threshold (default: 0.26), Short Threshold (default: -0.62), Overbought Threshold (default: 3.0), Oversold Threshold (default: -2.0)
These options enable users to adapt the indicator to various trading strategies and risk profiles.
Alerts
The indicator supports four alert conditions to keep traders informed:
NUPL Long Opportunity: Alerts when a long signal is triggered.
NUPL Short Opportunity: Alerts when a short signal is triggered.
NUPL Overbought Condition: Alerts when the Z-Score exceeds the overbought threshold.
NUPL Oversold Condition: Alerts when the Z-Score falls below the oversold threshold.
These alerts allow traders to monitor key opportunities without constantly watching the chart.
Btc!
IBD Style Relative Strength RatingWelcome to the IBD Style Relative Strength Rating Indicator!
A powerful tool inspired by Investor's Business Daily (IBD), this indicator helps traders evaluate stock performance relative to a benchmark. It’s perfect for identifying strong or weak stocks compared to the broader market, specifically the S&P 500 (SPY). Whether you're a beginner or an experienced investor, this guide will walk you through its features and key concepts, including the RS Line and RS Rating, and how legendary trader Mark Minervini uses similar tools.
Understanding the RS Line & RS Rating
RS Line (Relative Strength Line)
A visual representation of how a stock’s price performs relative to SPY.
Calculated by dividing the stock’s closing price by SPY’s closing price and multiplying by 100.
Rising RS Line → Stock is outperforming SPY.
Falling RS Line → Stock is underperforming SPY.
Helps identify strength or weakness compared to the market.
RS Rating
A numerical score (1-99) measuring stock performance over 252 trading days (1 year) relative to SPY.
Above 80 → Top 20% of performers.
Above 90 → Top 10% (ideal for growth investors).
Weighted average of stock’s price changes over 63, 126, 189, and 252 days.
Key Features Explained
RS Line Color Mode:
Static (default white) or Dynamic (green when rising, red when falling) for quick trend identification.
Comparative Symbol:
Default: SPY. Can be changed to NASDAQ:NDX, AAPL, or other indices/stocks.
Ensure selected symbols have sufficient historical data.
Plot RS New Highs: Marks new 250-day highs with subtle blue circles
Indicates a stock significantly outperforming SPY (potential buy signal).
Plot RS New Lows: Marks new 250-day lows with red circles
Signals underperformance (possible sell or avoid indicator).
Lookback for Display: Adjustable up to 2000 bars for historical trend analysis.
RS Rating Color Scheme
Green: Upward trend (improving RS Rating).
Orange: Neutral/mixed trend.
Red: Downward trend (declining RS Rating).
Dynamic Color Settings
Rising Line Color: Green (default), customizable.
Falling Line Color: Red (default), adjustable.
Advanced Options
Enable Replay Mode: Uses fixed percentile values for consistent RS Rating calculations in backtesting.
RS Rating Table
Displays current RS Rating and values from previous day, week, and month in the top-right corner (daily charts).
Background color reflects trend: Green (up), Orange (neutral), Red (down).
Past values appear in neutral gray for a quick performance snapshot.
How Mark Minervini Uses This Indicator
Mark Minervini, a legendary trader, emphasizes Relative Strength as a core strategy:
Looks for stocks with:
Rising RS Line.
RS Rating above 80-90 (top performers).
RS New Highs to spot breakout candidates.
Avoids stocks with:
Declining RS Line.
RS Rating below 70.
Important Information for Beginners
RS vs. SPY
The indicator compares stock performance against SPY (S&P 500).
Rising RS Line → Stock is beating SPY.
Falling RS Line → Stock is lagging.
Why Use This Indicator?
Helps find strong relative strength stocks, crucial for bullish trends.
New highs/lows on the RS Line signal significant shifts.
The RS Rating quantifies percentile-based performance.
Customization Options
Adjust colors, lookback periods, and marker sizes to match your trading style.
Default SPY comparison is ideal for U.S. traders but can be customized.
Timeframe Considerations
Optimized for daily charts.
Weekly/monthly charts may have limited data availability.
Tips for Crypto Traders (Measuring Altcoins vs. Bitcoin or Total Market Cap)
If trading cryptocurrencies, this indicator can measure altcoins vs. Bitcoin (BTC) or the total crypto market cap (TOTAL):
Comparative Symbol Setup:
Set Comparative Symbol to BTCUSD to compare an altcoin (e.g., ETHUSD) against Bitcoin.
Rising RS Line → The altcoin is outperforming Bitcoin (bullish signal).
Use TOTAL (crypto market cap index) to assess an altcoin’s strength against the total market.
High RS Rating suggests the altcoin is a market leader.
Adjust Look-back Periods:
Crypto markets are volatile, so reduce Look-back for New Highs/Lows to 50-100 bars (about 2-4 months) for shorter-term trends.
Fine-tune based on your trading strategy.
New Highs and Lows:
Watch for new RS Line highs (blue dots) to identify altcoins breaking out against BTC or TOTAL (momentum trading).
New lows (red dots) may signal weakening altcoins to avoid.
RS Rating Interpretation:
Above 80 against BTC or TOTAL → The altcoin is a strong performer.
This aligns with Minervini’s growth strategy for stocks.
Color Dynamics:
Use Dynamic RS Line Color (green for rising, red for falling) to quickly spot altcoin trends against BTC or TOTAL.
Crypto data may have gaps—test indicator settings on different timeframes (e.g., 1-hour or 4-hour charts).
Tips for Getting Started
Apply the Indicator to a stock chart and set Comparative Symbol to SPY.
Watch the RS Line:
If trending upward with new highs and RS Rating > 80, it's a strong candidate.
Use the RS Rating Table to check for trend consistency.
Adjust Opacity Settings for markers to balance visibility and clarity.
This indicator is now ready for public use as of March 18, 2025. Enjoy trading with enhanced insights, and feel free to share feedback or suggestions for future updates!
Btc and Eth 5 min winnerWhat the Strategy Does
Finding the Trend (Like Watching the Bus Move): The strategy uses special tools called Hull Moving Averages (HMAs) to figure out if Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH) prices are generally going up or down. It looks at short-term (5 minutes) and long-term (10 minutes) price movements to make sure the “bus” (the market) is moving strongly in one direction—up for buying, down for selling.
Spotting Good Times to Jump On (Buy or Sell Signals): It looks for two types of opportunities:
Pullbacks: When the price dips a little while still moving up (like the bus slowing down but not stopping), it’s a chance to buy.
Breakouts: When the price suddenly jumps higher after being stuck (like the bus speeding up), it’s another chance to buy. It does the opposite for selling when prices are dropping.
It also checks if there’s enough “passenger activity” (volume) and momentum (speed of price change) to make sure it’s a good move.
Avoiding Traffic Jams (Filters): The strategy uses tools like RSI (to check if the market’s too fast or too slow), volume (to see if enough people are trading), and ATR (to measure how wild the price swings are). It skips trades if things look too chaotic or if the trend isn’t strong enough.
Setting Safety Stops and Profit Targets: Once you’re on the “bus,” it sets rules to protect you:
Stop-Loss: If the price moves against you by a small amount (0.5% of the typical price swing), you jump off to avoid losing too much—think of it as getting off before the bus crashes.
Take-Profit: If the price moves in your favor by a small amount (1.0% of the typical swing), you cash out—imagine getting off at your stop with a profit.
Trailing Stop: If the price keeps moving your way, it adjusts your exit point to lock in more profit, like moving your stop closer as the bus keeps going.
Using Leverage (10x Boost): This strategy uses 10x leverage on Binance futures, meaning for every $1 you have, you trade like you have $10. This can make profits (or losses) 10 times bigger, so it’s risky but can be rewarding if you’re careful.
Why 5 Minutes and Bitcoin and Ethereum?
5-Minute Chart: This is like checking the bus every 5 minutes to make quick, small trades—perfect for fast, short profits.
Bitcoin Ethereum (BTC/USD)(ETH/USD): It’s the most popular and liquid crypto, so there’s lots of activity, making it easier to jump on and off without getting stuck.
Why It Aims for 90% Wins (But Be Realistic)
The goal is to win 9 out of 10 trades by being super picky about when to trade—only jumping on when the trend, momentum, and volume are all perfect. But in real trading, markets can be unpredictable, so 90% is very hard to achieve. Still, this strategy tries to be as accurate as possible by avoiding bad moves and focusing on strong trends.
Risks for a New Trader
Leverage: Trading with 10x leverage means small price moves can lead to big losses if you’re not careful. Start with a demo account (pretend money) on TradingView or Binance to practice.
Learning Curve: This strategy uses technical terms (like HMAs, RSI) and tools you’ll need to learn over time. Don’t rush—just practice and ask questions!
How to Use It
Go to TradingView, load this strategy on a 5-minute BTC/USD futures chart on Binance.
Watch the green triangles (buy signals) and red triangles (sell signals) on the chart—they tell you when to trade.
Use the stops and targets to manage your trades—don’t guess, let the strategy guide you.
Start small, learn from each trade, and don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose.
This is like learning to ride a bike—start slow, practice, and you’ll get better. If you have more questions or want simpler tips, feel free to ask! Trading can be fun and rewarding, but it takes patience and practice.
TSI Long/Short for BTC 2HThe TSI Long/Short for BTC 2H strategy is an advanced trend-following system designed specifically for trading Bitcoin (BTC) on a 2-hour timeframe. It leverages the True Strength Index (TSI) to identify momentum shifts and executes both long and short trades in response to dynamic market conditions.
Unlike traditional moving average-based strategies, this script uses a double-smoothed momentum calculation, enhancing signal accuracy and reducing noise. It incorporates automated position sizing, customizable leverage, and real-time performance tracking, ensuring a structured and adaptable trading approach.
🔹 What Makes This Strategy Unique?
Unlike simple crossover strategies or generic trend-following approaches, this system utilizes a customized True Strength Index (TSI) methodology that dynamically adjusts to market conditions.
🔸 True Strength Index (TSI) Filtering – The script refines the TSI by applying double exponential smoothing, filtering out weak signals and capturing high-confidence momentum shifts.
🔸 Adaptive Entry & Exit Logic – Instead of fixed thresholds, it compares the TSI value against a dynamically determined high/low range from the past 100 bars to confirm trade signals.
🔸 Leverage & Risk Optimization – Position sizing is dynamically adjusted based on account equity and leverage settings, ensuring controlled risk exposure.
🔸 Performance Monitoring System – A built-in performance tracking table allows traders to evaluate monthly and yearly results directly on the chart.
📊 Core Strategy Components
1️⃣ Momentum-Based Trade Execution
The strategy generates long and short trade signals based on the following conditions:
✅ Long Entry Condition – A buy signal is triggered when the TSI crosses above its 100-bar highest value (previously set), confirming bullish momentum.
✅ Short Entry Condition – A sell signal is generated when the TSI crosses below its 100-bar lowest value (previously set), indicating bearish pressure.
Each trade execution is fully automated, reducing emotional decision-making and improving trading discipline.
2️⃣ Position Sizing & Leverage Control
Risk management is a key focus of this strategy:
🔹 Dynamic Position Sizing – The script calculates position size based on:
Account Equity – Ensuring trade sizes adjust dynamically with capital fluctuations.
Leverage Multiplier – Allows traders to customize risk exposure via an adjustable leverage setting.
🔹 No Fixed Stop-Loss – The strategy relies on reversals to exit trades, meaning each position is closed when the opposite signal appears.
This design ensures maximum capital efficiency while adapting to market conditions in real time.
3️⃣ Performance Visualization & Tracking
Understanding historical performance is crucial for refining strategies. The script includes:
📌 Real-Time Trade Markers – Buy and sell signals are visually displayed on the chart for easy reference.
📌 Performance Metrics Table – Tracks monthly and yearly returns in percentage form, helping traders assess profitability over time.
📌 Trade History Visualization – Completed trades are displayed with color-coded boxes (green for long trades, red for short trades), visually representing profit/loss dynamics.
📢 Why Use This Strategy?
✔ Advanced Momentum Detection – Uses a double-smoothed TSI for more accurate trend signals.
✔ Fully Automated Trading – Removes emotional bias and enforces discipline.
✔ Customizable Risk Management – Adjust leverage and position sizing to suit your risk profile.
✔ Comprehensive Performance Tracking – Integrated reporting system provides clear insights into past trades.
This strategy is ideal for Bitcoin traders looking for a structured, high-probability system that adapts to both bullish and bearish trends on the 2-hour timeframe.
📌 How to Use: Simply add the script to your 2H BTC chart, configure your leverage settings, and let the system handle trade execution and tracking! 🚀
Excess Liquidity IndicatorExcess Liquidity Indicator
This script visualizes excess liquidity trends in relation to risk assets. It estimates excess liquidity by combining various macroeconomic factors such as WW M2 money supply, central bank balance sheets, and interest rates, oil, and the dollar index, and it substracts WW GDP. The tool helps traders analyze liquidity-driven market trends in a structured manner.
Note: This script is for research purposes only and does not provide financial advice.
I cannot point names cause I get banned but work is inspired by others...
Ultimate Volatility Scanner by NHBprod - Requested by Client!Hey Everyone!
I created another script to add to my growing library of strategies and indicators that I use for automated crypto and stock trading! This strategy is for BITCOIN but can be used on any stock or crypto. This was requested by a client so I thought I should create it and hopefully build off of it and build variants!
This script gets and compares the 14-day volatility using the ATR percentage for a list of cryptocurrencies and stocks. Cryptocurrencies are preloaded into the script, and the script will show you the TOP 5 coins in terms of volatility, and then compares it to the Bitcoin volatility as a reference. It updates these values once per day using daily timeframe data from TradingView. The coins are then sorted in descending order by their volatility.
If you don't want to use the preloaded set of coins, you have the option of inputting your own coins AND/OR stocks!
Let me know your thoughts.
Ultimate T3 Fibonacci for BTC Scalping. Look at backtest report!Hey Everyone!
I created another script to add to my growing library of strategies and indicators that I use for automated crypto trading! This strategy is for BITCOIN on the 30 minute chart since I designed it to be a scalping strategy. I calculated for trading fees, and use a small amount of capital in the backtest report. But feel free to modify the capital and how much per order to see how it changes the results:)
It is called the "Ultimate T3 Fibonacci Indicator by NHBprod" that computes and displays two T3-based moving averages derived from price data. The t3_function calculates the Tilson T3 indicator by applying a series of exponential moving averages to a combined price metric and then blending these results with specific coefficients derived from an input factor.
The script accepts several user inputs that toggle the use of the T3 filter, select the buy signal method, and set parameters like lengths and volume factors for two variations of the T3 calculation. Two T3 lines, T3 and T32, are computed with different parameters, and their colors change dynamically (green/red for T3 and blue/purple for T32) based on whether the lines are trending upward or downward. Depending on the selected signal method, the script generates buy signals either when T32 crosses over T3 or when the closing price is above T3, and similarly, sell signals are generated on the respective conditions for crossing under or closing below. Finally, the indicator plots the T3 lines on the chart, adds visual buy/sell markers, and sets alert conditions to notify users when the respective trading signals occur.
The user has the ability to tune the parameters using TP/SL, date timerames for analyses, and the actual parameters of the T3 function including the buy/sell signal! Lastly, the user has the option of trading this long, short, or both!
Let me know your thoughts and check out the backtest report!
Ultimate Stochastics Strategy by NHBprod Use to Day Trade BTCHey All!
Here's a new script I worked on that's super simple but at the same time useful. Check out the backtest results. The backtest results include slippage and fees/commission, and is still quite profitable. Obviously the profitability magnitude depends on how much capital you begin with, and how much the user utilizes per order, but in any event it seems to be profitable according to backtests.
This is different because it allows you full functionality over the stochastics calculations which is designed for random datasets. This script allows you to:
Designate ANY period of time to analyze and study
Choose between Long trading, short trading, and Long & Short trading
It allows you to enter trades based on the stochastics calculations
It allows you to EXIT trades using the stochastics calculations or take profit, or stop loss, Or any combination of those, which is nice because then the user can see how one variable effects the overall performance.
As for the actual stochastics formula, you get control, and get to SEE the plot lines for slow K, slow D, and fast K, which is usually not considered.
You also get the chance to modify the smoothing method, which has not been done with regular stochastics indicators. You get to choose the standard simple moving average (SMA) method, but I also allow you to choose other MA's such as the HMA and WMA.
Lastly, the user gets the option of using a custom trade extender, which essentially allows a buy or sell signal to exist for X amount of candles after the initial signal. For example, you can use "max bars since signal" to 1, and this will allow the indicator to produce an extra sequential buy signal when a buy signal is generated. This can be useful because it is possible that you use a small take profit (TP) and quickly exit a profitable trade. With the max bars since signal variable, you're able to reenter on the next candle and allow for another opportunity.
Let me know if you have any questions! Please take a look at the performance report and let me know your thoughts! :)
TOTAL3/BTC This Pine Script™ code, named "TOTAL3/BTC with Arrow," is designed for cryptocurrency analysis on TradingView.
This script essentially provides a visual tool for traders to gauge when altcoins might be gaining or losing ground relative to Bitcoin through moving average analysis and color-coded trend indication.
Intention was to help the community with a script based on classic TA only.
Use it with SASDv2r indicator.
Feel free to make it better. If you did so, please let me know.
Main elements:
Data Fetching: It retrieves market cap data for all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL3) and for Bitcoin (BTC).
Ratio Calculation: The script calculates the ratio of TOTAL3 to BTC market caps, which indicates how altcoins (excluding ETH) are performing relative to Bitcoin.
Plotting the Ratio: This ratio is plotted on the chart with a blue line, allowing traders to see the relative performance visually.
Moving Averages: Two Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are calculated for this ratio, one for 20 periods (ma20) and another for 50 periods (ma50), though these are not plotted in the current version of the code.
Reference Lines: Horizontal lines are added at ratios of 0.3 and 0.8 to serve as visual equilibrium points or thresholds for analysis.
Complex Moving Average: The script uses constants (len, len2, cc, smoothe) from another script, suggesting it's adapting or simplifying another's logic for multi-timeframe analysis.
Average Calculation: Two SMAs (avg and avg2) are computed using the constants defined, focusing on different lengths for trend analysis.
Direction Determination: It checks if the moving average is trending up or down by comparing the current value with its value smoothe bars earlier.
Color Coding: The color of the plotted moving average changes based on its direction (lime for up, red for down, aqua if no clear direction), aiding in quick visual interpretation of trends.
Plotting: Finally, the script plots this multi-timeframe moving average with a dynamic color to reflect the current market trend of the TOTAL3/BTC ratio, with a thicker line for visibility.
Crypto Neo - Blockchain Momentum (BTC Settings)The Crypto Neo - Blockchain Momentum indicator analyzes Bitcoin’s on-chain activity to gauge bullish or bearish trends. It combines multiple on-chain metrics and applies different moving average strategies to assess Bitcoin’s momentum.
This indicator is designed to track key blockchain data sources, such as:
Hash Rate
Active Addresses
Transactions per Second
New Addresses
Trader Behavior
Long-Term Holders (Cruisers)
Money Flow In/Out
Large Transactions Count
It processes these inputs using various Moving Average (MA) types, including SMA, EMA, DMA, to generate a Bullish Momentum Score, which is visually displayed on the chart.
How to Use:
Select MA Type – Choose between SMA, EMA, MIXMA, or DMA to determine how moving averages are applied.
Set MA Lengths – Adjust MA1 Length and MA2 Length to define short-term vs. long-term trend comparison.
Customize Data Sources – Select different on-chain metrics for the indicator to analyze.
Interpret the Bullish Momentum Score:
🟢 Green (Strong Bullish Momentum) – Bullish on-chain signals dominate.
🟡 Yellow (Moderate Bullish Momentum) – Weak bullish trend forming.
⚪ White (Neutral) – No clear trend.
🟠 Orange (Moderate Bearish Momentum) – Weak bearish signals emerging.
🔴 Red (Strong Bearish Momentum) – Bearish on-chain signals dominate.
Important Notes
This indicator does not generate trading signals but helps interpret blockchain trends for informed decision-making.
Since it relies on daily on-chain data, it is best used on the 1D timeframe for accurate readings.
Real-time calculations may vary slightly due to different bar update behaviors.
This indicator is very useful to confirm market turns early. Here are a few an example setups:
1. Back in 2019 on chain metrics started trending up after the market had dumped signaling a very good opportunity to buy.
2. During the 2021 bull market. When the market was forming a top, the on chain metrics started trending down indicating a risk to the downside.
Spent Output Profit Ratio | JeffreyTimmermansSOPR
The "Spent Output Profit Ratio" , aka SOPR indicator is a valuable tool designed to analyze the profitability of spent Bitcoin outputs. SOPR is derived by dividing the selling price of Bitcoin by its purchase price, offering insights into market participants' profit-taking or loss-cutting behavior.
This script features two selectable SOPR metrics:
SOPR 30D: A 30-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for short-term trend analysis.
SOPR 365D: A 365-day EMA for assessing long-term profitability trends.
How It Works
Key Levels: The horizontal reference line at 1.0 acts as a critical threshold:
Above 1.0: Market participants are generally in profit, indicating bullish sentiment.
Below 1.0: Market participants are selling at a loss, often signaling bearish sentiment.
Background Colors
Green: Indicates bullish conditions when the selected SOPR value is above 1.
Red: Highlights bearish conditions when the value is below 1.
Dynamic Selection
Easily switch between SOPR 30D and SOPR 365D in the settings for tailored analysis.
Features
Customizable SOPR Selection: Toggle between 30-day and 365-day SOPR views based on your trading preferences.
Dynamic Label: A floating label displays the current SOPR value in real-time, along with the selected SOPR metric for easy monitoring.
Background Highlights: Visual cues for bullish and bearish conditions simplify chart interpretation.
Real-Time Alerts
Bullish Alerts: Triggered when the selected SOPR crosses above 1.
Bearish Alerts: Triggered when the selected SOPR crosses below 1.
Clean Visualization
The indicator includes a horizontal reference line and clear color schemes for easy trend identification.
The SOPR Indicator is an essential tool for traders and analysts seeking to understand Bitcoin market sentiment and profitability trends. Whether used for short-term trades or long-term market analysis, this script provides actionable insights to refine your decision-making process.
-Jeffrey
Improved Trend Reconnaissance | JeffreyTimmermansImproved Trend Reconnaissance
The Improved Trend Reconnaissance indicator is a robust tool designed to help traders identify and follow trends while avoiding market noise. It is especially effective for capturing longer-term trends and sustained price movements over extended time periods. By leveraging smoothed trend analysis and volatility-based consolidation detection, this indicator provides clear and actionable insights for traders focusing on significant market trends.
What Does This Indicator Do?
At its core, this indicator calculates a Half Trend value and applies advanced smoothing techniques to emphasize longer-term trends. Additionally, it incorporates volatility analysis using the Average True Range (ATR) to detect periods of consolidation, where trend signals are muted to prevent false signals.
Key Components Explained
Half Trend Calculation:
This indicator determines a Half Trend value based on the relationship between the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of closing prices and the highest highs and lowest lows over a specified range.
The trend is further smoothed to minimize short-term fluctuations, ensuring the focus remains on sustained price movements.
ATR-Based Consolidation Detection:
By comparing the range of price highs and lows to a multiple of ATR, the indicator detects consolidation zones where the market is range-bound. During these periods, trend signals are suppressed to avoid false positives.
Trend Visualization:
Bullish Trends: Highlighted in green with upward markers and optional trend-colored candles.
Bearish Trends: Highlighted in red with downward markers and optional trend-colored candles.
Designed for Longer-Term Trends:
The default settings are optimized to capture longer-term trends, making this indicator particularly valuable for traders looking to identify and follow substantial market movements over extended periods.
Key Features
Optimized for Capturing Longer Trends:
With the default settings, the indicator is tailored to identify and follow longer-term price trends, reducing noise from minor fluctuations. This makes it ideal for traders focused on significant trends and extended price movements.
Customizable Inputs:
Parameters such as trend range, smoothing length, ATR calculation period, and consolidation threshold are fully customizable.
Visual settings, including trend colors and signal sizes, can be adjusted for personalized trading needs.
Dynamic Signal Generation:
Bullish Signals: Generated when the smoothed Half Trend crosses upward and the market is trending.
Bearish Signals: Generated when the smoothed Half Trend crosses downward and the market is trending.
Alerts can notify traders in real time when these conditions occur.
Enhanced Visualization:
Candle coloring based on trend direction provides an immediate visual representation of market momentum.
Plotted trend lines and filled regions between them emphasize the current trend's strength and direction.
Real-Time Dashboard:
Displays essential information, including the current ticker, trend direction, and status (bullish or bearish), directly on the chart.
How to Use This Indicator
Identify Longer-Term Trends:
Use the smoothed Half Trend line and trend-colored candles to identify and follow significant price trends.
The default settings are specifically designed to focus on extended trends, making it easier to spot major market moves.
Avoid Noise in Consolidation:
Pay attention to the consolidation detection feature, which suppresses signals during range-bound market conditions, aka mean-reverting markets.
This ensures that signals generated are more reliable and actionable.
Confirm Trend Signals:
Use the visual markers (flags) and dashboard status to validate bullish or bearish trends before making trading decisions.
Set Alerts:
Set alerts for bullish or bearish signals to stay informed about key market movements without constantly monitoring the charts.
Adapt for Your Strategy:
While optimized for longer-term trends, the customizable settings allow you to adapt the indicator for shorter-term strategies if needed.
What Makes This Indicator Unique?
Focus on Longer-Term Trends:
Unlike many indicators that respond to short-term fluctuations, this tool is tailored for longer-term trend-following systems, ensuring that traders capture the most meaningful price movements.
Noise Reduction:
By combining smoothing techniques and ATR-based consolidation detection, the indicator reduces market noise and focuses on actionable insights.
Clear Visual Representation:
The combination of trend-colored candles, plotted lines, and dashboard information simplifies the analysis of complex market trends.
Customizability:
Fully adjustable parameters ensure the indicator meets the specific needs of a wide range of trading styles.
Real-Time Feedback:
Alerts and dashboard integration keep traders informed, enabling timely and well-informed decision-making.
The Improved Trend Reconnaissance indicator is an essential tool for traders looking to focus on longer-term trends and sustained market movements. With its default settings optimized for capturing significant trends over extended periods, it offers clarity, precision, and actionable insights for successful trend-following trading.
-Jeffrey
WMA Killer Ratio Analysis | JeffreyTimmermansWMA Killer Ratio Analysis
The WMA Killer Ratio Analysis is a highly responsive trend-following indicator designed to deliver quick and actionable insights on the ETHBTC ratio. By utilizing advanced smoothing methods and normalized thresholds, this tool efficiently identifies market trends. Let’s dive into the details:
Core Mechanics
1. Smoothing with Standard Deviations
The WMA Killer Ratio Analysis begins by smoothing source price data using standard deviations, which measure the typical variance in price movements. This creates dynamic deviation levels:
Upper Deviation: Marks the high boundary, indicating potential overbought conditions.
Lower Deviation: Marks the low boundary, signaling potential oversold conditions.
These levels are integrated with the Weighted Moving Average (WMA), filtering out market noise and honing in on significant price shifts.
2. Weighted WMA Bands
The WMA is further refined with dynamic weighting:
Upper Weight: Expands the WMA, creating an Upper Band to capture extreme price highs.
Lower Weight: Compresses the WMA, forming a Lower Band to reflect price lows.
This adaptive dual-weighting system highlights potential areas for trend reversals or continuations with precision.
3. Normalized WMA (NWMA) Analysis
The Normalized WMA adds a deeper layer of trend evaluation: It calculates the percentage change between the source price and its smoothed average. Positive NWMA values suggest overbought conditions, while negative NWMA values point to oversold conditions.
Traders can customize long (buy) and short (sell) thresholds to align signal sensitivity with their strategy and market conditions.
Signal Logic
Buy (Long) Signals: Triggered when the price remains above the lower deviation level and the NWMA crosses above the long threshold. Indicates a bullish trend and potential upward momentum.
Sell (Short) Signals: Triggered when the price dips below the upper deviation level and the NWMA falls beneath the short threshold. Suggests bearish momentum and a potential downward trend.
Note: The WMA Killer Ratio Analysis is most effective when paired with other forms of analysis, such as volume, higher time-frame trends, or fundamental data.
Visual Enhancements
The WMA Killer Ratio Analysis emphasizes usability with clear and dynamic plotting features:
1. Color-Coded Trend Indicators: The indicator changes color dynamically to represent trend direction. Users can customize colors to suit specific trading pairs (e.g., ETHBTC, SOLBTC).
2. Threshold Markers: Dashed horizontal lines represent long and short thresholds, giving traders a visual reference for signal levels.
3. Deviation Bands with Fill Areas: Upper and Lower Bands are plotted around the WMA. Shaded regions highlight deviation zones, making trend boundaries easier to spot.
4. Signal Arrows and Bar Coloring: Arrows or triangles appear on the chart to mark potential buy (upward) or sell (downward) points. Candlesticks are color-coded based on the prevailing trend, allowing traders to interpret the market direction at a glance.
Customization Options
Adjustable Thresholds: Tailor the sensitivity of long and short signals to your strategy.
Dynamic Weighting: Modify upper and lower band weights to adapt the WMA to varying market conditions.
Source Selection: Choose the preferred input for price data smoothing, such as closing price or an average (hl2).
The WMA Killer Ratio Analysis combines rigorous mathematical analysis with intuitive visual features, providing traders with a reliable way to identify trends and make data-driven decisions. While it excels at detecting key market shifts, its effectiveness increases when integrated into a broader trading strategy.
-Jeffrey
VWAP Valuation Model | JeffreyTimmermansVWAP Valuation Model
This indicator provides a powerful tool for traders looking to assess the value of an asset based on the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) and the z-score. The VWAP Valuation Model is designed to give insights into the overbought or oversold condition of an asset by comparing the current price to a volume-weighted average over a defined period.
Key Features:
VWAP Baseline: The indicator calculates a volume-weighted moving average of the price, which serves as the core reference line for price analysis.
Z-Score: The z-score is calculated to determine how far the current price deviates from the mean, adjusted for volatility. This score helps identify overbought and oversold conditions.
Smoothing Option: Optionally, the indicator can be smoothed for better visualization, with the smoothing length being adjustable.
Real-time Data: The indicator provides real-time insights for multiple assets, such as Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD), and Solana (SOLUSD), and can take the broader market performance (like the total crypto market) into account.
Z-Score Table: The indicator features an interactive table that provides valuable information on the z-scores of selected assets, allowing traders to quickly get an overview of market conditions. The table is strategically positioned above the chart for maximum visibility without interfering with the chart data.
Usage:
Overbought/Oversold: A z-score above +1.5 indicates overvaluation (overbought), while a score below -1.5 indicates undervaluation (oversold). This indicator helps in making informed trading decisions.
VWAP Range: The indicator offers a visual representation of the VWAP range, crucial for understanding price trends and market dynamics.
This indicator is ideal for investors interested in fundamental analysis while also needing technical insights to identify buy and sell opportunities. It helps to objectively assess market valuation and make well-informed decisions.
Important Note: This indicators works only in mean-reverting markets, not trending periods.
-Jeffrey
Z-Score + Valuation BTC | JeffreyTimmermansBTC Valuation Indicator with Z-Score Analysis
The BTC Valuation Indicator is a sophisticated tool designed to offer traders and analysts a deeper understanding of Bitcoin’s market valuation, empowering them to make more informed decisions. By utilizing a combination of key moving averages and a logarithmic trendline, along with advanced statistical analysis through the Z-Score Indicator, this tool provides a comprehensive view of Bitcoin’s potential undervaluation or overvaluation.
Key Features:
200MA/P (200-Day Moving Average to Price Ratio)
This component compares Bitcoin’s current price to its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), offering insights into the long-term trend. A positive value signals a potential undervaluation of Bitcoin, while a negative value may indicate overvaluation.
Use case: Identifying long-term price trends to forecast potential buying or selling opportunities.
50MA/P (50-Day Moving Average to Price Ratio)
This ratio focuses on the short-term dynamics of Bitcoin’s price, comparing it to its 50-day SMA. It helps traders detect bullish or bearish trends in the immediate future.
Use case: Spotting short-term market movements and adjusting strategies accordingly.
LTL/P (Logarithmic TrendLine to Price Ratio)
This ratio incorporates Bitcoin’s historical age, using a logarithmic trendline to measure price movements against long-term expectations. A divergence from this trendline can signal potential overvaluation or undervaluation, assisting in aligning trading decisions with broader market trends.
Use case: Evaluating the overall trajectory of Bitcoin’s value over time and predicting significant market shifts.
Z-Score Indicator Integration:
The BTC Valuation Indicator utilizes the Z-Score, a powerful statistical measure, to assess how far each of the aforementioned ratios deviates from the mean. Z-Scores help standardize these ratios, allowing traders to gauge the severity of under or overvaluation compared to historical averages.
What is a Z-Score?
A Z-score measures how far a data point is from the mean in terms of standard deviations. A Z-score of 0 indicates the value is exactly at the mean, while a positive or negative score shows how much the value deviates from it. A higher Z-score signals a more significant deviation, potentially pointing to a market anomaly, while a Z-score near 0 indicates normal conditions.
For instance:
A Z-score above +2 indicates that Bitcoin may be overvalued, with the likelihood of a market correction or reversion to the mean.
A Z-score below -2 signals possible undervaluation, suggesting an upward trend may be on the horizon.
Z-Score and Market Volatility
The Z-Score Indicator can be used in conjunction with volatility measures, such as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), to forecast potential market volatility. Just as a Z-scored VIX above +2 suggests decreasing volatility and the possibility of an upward trend, a Z-scored VIX below -2 indicates increasing volatility and a potential downward trend. This parallel can be used to predict Bitcoin’s potential movements in times of market uncertainty.
How to Use:
The BTC Valuation Indicator, when paired with the Z-Score, provides a more refined statistical framework to analyze Bitcoin’s market conditions. This integration allows traders to assess the severity of potential trends and price anomalies, assisting in the identification of profitable entry and exit points.
Important Considerations:
No Guarantee of Market Predictions: While this indicator is a valuable tool for assessing market conditions, no indicator can guarantee future performance. Always consider multiple factors and use the indicator as part of a comprehensive strategy.
Market Dynamics:
As market conditions evolve, continuously refine your approach. Historical performance may not be indicative of future results, and traders should remain vigilant to changing trends and developments.
By combining the power of moving averages, logarithmic trend lines, and Z-scores, the BTC Valuation Indicator equips investors with a robust, data-driven approach to Bitcoin valuation, enhancing decision-making and enabling a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics.
-Jeffrey
Puell Multiple BTC | JeffreyTimmermansThe Puell Multiple is a metric that assesses the relationship between mining profitability and market cycles. It is calculated by comparing the daily value of newly issued coins (USD) to the 365-day moving average of daily coin issuance (USD).
This indicator works best on the 1D BTC Chart. When interpreting the Puell Multiple, it can generally be understood as follows:
High values indicate that miner profitability is significantly higher than the yearly average. This may lead to an increased incentive for miners to sell off their holdings, putting additional selling pressure on the market.
Low values suggest that miner profitability is lower than the yearly average. In this case, miners might experience financial strain, causing some to reduce their hash power by shutting down mining rigs. This, in turn, can reduce the number of coins being sold into the market, as remaining miners need to liquidate fewer coins to maintain operations, thereby decreasing the impact on the liquid supply.
The Puell Multiple is a metric used primarily in the cryptocurrency space, specifically for Bitcoin, to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued in relation to its mining rewards. It helps to gauge the profitability of miners and, by extension, to assess market conditions.
Use:
This Puell Multiple is invented for Long-Term, Trend Following Systems.
The Puell Multiple trend can be visualized through the color of the bars, which represents the direction of the trend, while the background indicates the strength of that trend.
Bar Color: The color of the bars typically changes to reflect whether the trend is bullish or bearish. For example, green bars may indicate a strong bullish trend, while red bars signal a bearish or declining trend. The color coding helps to quickly interpret the market's overall movement in relation to mining profitability.
Background Color: The background of the chart is used to reflect the strength of the trend. A darker or more intense background may signify a stronger trend, indicating that the market conditions are more pronounced, while a lighter background can suggest a weaker or more uncertain trend, showing less certainty in the market’s direction.
Together, the combination of bar color and background provides a clearer picture of both the trend's direction and its strength, making it easier to assess potential market behavior based on miner profitability and market cycles.
Puell Multiple and Moving Average: They can be used as an extra tool to confirm the bullish or bearish trend. When the Puell Multiple is above the Moving Average, this will suggest and confirm that the trend is bullish.
How you score this for your own systems is up to you.
-Jeffrey
Puell Multiple BTC | JeffreyTimmermansThe Puell Multiple is a metric that assesses the relationship between mining profitability and market cycles. It is calculated by comparing the daily value of newly issued coins (USD) to the 365-day moving average of daily coin issuance (USD).
This indicator works best on the 1D BTC Chart. When interpreting the Puell Multiple, it can generally be understood as follows:
High values indicate that miner profitability is significantly higher than the yearly average. This may lead to an increased incentive for miners to sell off their holdings, putting additional selling pressure on the market.
Low values suggest that miner profitability is lower than the yearly average. In this case, miners might experience financial strain, causing some to reduce their hash power by shutting down mining rigs. This, in turn, can reduce the number of coins being sold into the market, as remaining miners need to liquidate fewer coins to maintain operations, thereby decreasing the impact on the liquid supply.
The Puell Multiple is a metric used primarily in the cryptocurrency space, specifically for Bitcoin, to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued in relation to its mining rewards. It helps to gauge the profitability of miners and, by extension, to assess market conditions.
Use:
This Puell Multiple is invented for Long-Term, Trend Following Systems.
The Puell Multiple trend can be visualized through the color of the bars, which represents the direction of the trend, while the background indicates the strength of that trend.
Bar Color: The color of the bars typically changes to reflect whether the trend is bullish or bearish. For example, green bars may indicate a strong bullish trend, while red bars signal a bearish or declining trend. The color coding helps to quickly interpret the market's overall movement in relation to mining profitability.
Background Color: The background of the chart is used to reflect the strength of the trend. A darker or more intense background may signify a stronger trend, indicating that the market conditions are more pronounced, while a lighter background can suggest a weaker or more uncertain trend, showing less certainty in the market’s direction.
Together, the combination of bar color and background provides a clearer picture of both the trend's direction and its strength, making it easier to assess potential market behavior based on miner profitability and market cycles.
Puell Multiple and Moving Average: They can be used as an extra tool to confirm the bullish or bearish trend. When the Puell Multiple is above the Moving Average, this will suggest and confirm that the trend is bullish.
How you score this for your own systems is up to you.
-Jeffrey
Puell Multiple BTC | JeffreyTimmermansThe Puell Multiple is a metric that assesses the relationship between mining profitability and market cycles. It is calculated by comparing the daily value of newly issued coins (USD) to the 365-day moving average of daily coin issuance (USD).
This indicator works best on the 1D BTC Chart. When interpreting the Puell Multiple, it can generally be understood as follows:
High values indicate that miner profitability is significantly higher than the yearly average. This may lead to an increased incentive for miners to sell off their holdings, putting additional selling pressure on the market.
Low values suggest that miner profitability is lower than the yearly average. In this case, miners might experience financial strain, causing some to reduce their hash power by shutting down mining rigs. This, in turn, can reduce the number of coins being sold into the market, as remaining miners need to liquidate fewer coins to maintain operations, thereby decreasing the impact on the liquid supply.
The Puell Multiple is a metric used primarily in the cryptocurrency space, specifically for Bitcoin, to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued in relation to its mining rewards. It helps to gauge the profitability of miners and, by extension, to assess market conditions.
Use:
This Puell Multiple is invented for Long-Term, Trend Following Systems.
The Puell Multiple trend can be visualized through the color of the bars, which represents the direction of the trend, while the background indicates the strength of that trend.
Bar Color: The color of the bars typically changes to reflect whether the trend is bullish or bearish. For example, green bars may indicate a strong bullish trend, while red bars signal a bearish or declining trend. The color coding helps to quickly interpret the market's overall movement in relation to mining profitability.
Background Color: The background of the chart is used to reflect the strength of the trend. A darker or more intense background may signify a stronger trend, indicating that the market conditions are more pronounced, while a lighter background can suggest a weaker or more uncertain trend, showing less certainty in the market’s direction.
Together, the combination of bar color and background provides a clearer picture of both the trend's direction and its strength, making it easier to assess potential market behavior based on miner profitability and market cycles.
Puell Multiple and Moving Average: They can be used as an extra tool to confirm the bullish or bearish trend. When the Puell Multiple is above the Moving Average, this will suggest and confirm that the trend is bullish.
How you score this for your own systems is up to you.
-Jeffrey
Bitcoin SMA channels - quorraThis indicator is specifically designed to identify potential Bitcoin bottom zones based on historical data and market trends. By analyzing price cycles and key support levels, it helps traders and investors make informed decisions. This tool is tailored for optimal use on higher timeframes like the daily chart. (Don't forget to ensure your chart is set to logarithmic)
1. Simple Moving Average (SMA) Calculation and Gradient Coloring
The script begins by calculating the 350-period SMA (sma350), which serves as the foundation for identifying the market's overall trend. To make the SMA visually intuitive, a gradient color function is implemented. This function changes the SMA's color based on whether the current price (close) is above or below the SMA.
If the price is above the SMA, the line appears in gray.
If the price is below the SMA, the line takes on a darker red shade.
This gradient coloring helps traders quickly gauge market sentiment and momentum, as the SMA effectively acts as a dynamic trend line.
2. Fibonacci-Based Multipliers for SMA Levels
The indicator computes several levels based on Fibonacci multipliers of the 350-period SMA. These levels provide additional layers of insight into potential support and resistance zones. The multipliers range from small values like 0.144 (indicating closer proximity to the SMA) to larger values like 9 (representing distant extensions).
These Fibonacci levels are plotted using hidden lines, ensuring that the chart remains uncluttered while still allowing for strategic visualization through filled zones. For instance:
Levels like SMA x 0.144 to SMA x 0.355 are closer to the SMA and are categorized as potential buy zones.
Levels like SMA x 2 to SMA x 9 extend further and are considered sell zones.
3. Filling Areas to Visualize Zones
To enhance the visual representation, the script uses fill() functions to color the regions between specific Fibonacci levels:
Buy Zones: These areas are filled with a semi-transparent gray color (#5a5a5a) to indicate levels where prices are likely to bounce upward.
Sell Zones: Conversely, these areas are filled with a semi-transparent red color (#5f0000), signaling regions where prices may encounter resistance and reverse downward.
This layered approach helps traders identify actionable price ranges without overwhelming them with excessive visual elements.
4. Pivot Points and Their Visualization
The script includes a pivot point system for identifying local highs and lows. Depending on the selected source (High/Low or Close/Open), it calculates pivot highs and lows over a specified period (prd).
Pivot highs (ph) are marked above bars using downward-facing labels.
Pivot lows (pl) are marked below bars using upward-facing labels.
The pivot points are adjustable via user inputs, allowing traders to fine-tune the detection of significant price swings.
5. Support and Resistance Channel Analysis
A key feature of this indicator is its ability to identify and display support and resistance (S/R) levels. The script calculates the maximum allowable width of an S/R channel as a percentage of the price range over a 300-bar window. It then groups pivot points within these channels to derive high and low boundaries.
Resistance Levels: Represented by the upper bounds of channels and highlighted with a red color.
Support Levels: Represented by the lower bounds of channels and highlighted with a gray color.
These levels are dynamically adjusted based on user-defined parameters such as channel width, maximum S/R levels, and strength.
6. Advanced Input Customization
The indicator provides several user-configurable inputs to adapt it to different trading strategies:
Pivot Period (prd): Determines the sensitivity of pivot point calculations.
Channel Width: Controls the percentage width of S/R zones.
Maximum S/R Levels: Sets the maximum number of S/R zones displayed.
Line Style and Color Settings: Allows customization of the visual appearance of lines and labels.
7. Strength Filtering for S/R Levels
To ensure the reliability of identified S/R levels, the script incorporates a filtering mechanism based on strength. Strength is determined by the number of pivot points that fall within a channel. Levels with insufficient strength are excluded, ensuring that only significant S/R zones are displayed.
8. Practical Applications
This indicator can be applied in various trading strategies:
Trend Identification: The SMA and its gradient coloring provide a clear indication of the market's prevailing trend.
Support/Resistance Trading: The Fibonacci levels and S/R zones help traders identify potential entry and exit points.
Risk Management: By visualizing key levels, the indicator assists traders in setting stop-loss and take-profit levels effectively.
This script combines multiple technical analysis techniques into a single, visually intuitive tool. It is particularly useful for Bitcoin traders seeking to enhance their decision-making process by leveraging both trend and level-based analysis.
Although this indicator is specifically designed for Bitcoin, it can also be applied to stocks or altcoins. It works best on longer timeframes, such as the daily chart. When the price reaches specific support levels, it may be wise to activate a DCA bot or confirm the bottom using other indicators. This approach helps enhance decision-making and ensures a more strategic entry or exit from positions.
2-Year MA Multiplier [UAlgo]The 2-Year MA Multiplier is a technical analysis tool designed to assist traders and investors in identifying potential overbought and oversold conditions in the market. By plotting the 2-year moving average (MA) of an asset's closing price alongside an upper band set at five times this moving average, the indicator provides visual cues to assess long-term price trends and significant market movements.
🔶 Key Features
2-Year Moving Average (MA): Calculates the simple moving average of the asset's closing price over a 730-day period, representing approximately two years.
Visual Indicators: Plots the 2-year MA in forest green and the upper band in firebrick red for clear differentiation.
Fills the area between the 2-year MA and the upper band to highlight the normal trading range.
Uses color-coded fills to indicate overbought (tomato red) and oversold (cornflower blue) conditions based on the asset's closing price relative to the bands.
🔶 Idea
The concept behind the 2-Year MA Multiplier is rooted in the cyclical nature of markets, particularly in assets like Bitcoin. By analyzing long-term price movements, the indicator aims to identify periods of significant deviation from the norm, which may signal potential buying or selling opportunities.
2-year MA smooths out short-term volatility, providing a clearer view of the asset's long-term trend. This timeframe is substantial enough to capture major market cycles, making it a reliable baseline for analysis.
Multiplying the 2-year MA by five establishes an upper boundary that has historically correlated with market tops. When the asset's price exceeds this upper band, it may indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a potential for price correction. Conversely, when the price falls below the 2-year MA, it may signal oversold conditions, presenting potential buying opportunities.
🔶 Disclaimer
Use with Caution: This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Users should exercise caution and perform their own analysis before making trading decisions based on the indicator's signals.
Not Financial Advice: The information provided by this indicator does not constitute financial advice, and the creator (UAlgo) shall not be held responsible for any trading losses incurred as a result of using this indicator.
Backtesting Recommended: Traders are encouraged to backtest the indicator thoroughly on historical data before using it in live trading to assess its performance and suitability for their trading strategies.
Risk Management: Trading involves inherent risks, and users should implement proper risk management strategies, including but not limited to stop-loss orders and position sizing, to mitigate potential losses.
No Guarantees: The accuracy and reliability of the indicator's signals cannot be guaranteed, as they are based on historical price data and past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Bitcoin Events HistoryWith this tool, you can travel back to Bitcoin’s very first price quote and retrace its entire history directly on your chart. Major events are plotted as labels or markers, providing context for how significant moments shaped Bitcoin’s journey.
Key Features
Comprehensive Event Coverage: From Bitcoin’s inception to the most recent updates.
Custom View: Change label colors, styles, sizes, and fonts using the script’s settings.
Regular Updates: New events are added regularly to keep the history current.
Replay History
Use Bar Replay Mode to step through Bitcoin’s price history and see events unfold in sequence.
Follow the on-screen instructions for a more immersive experience.
Community Contributions
If you notice a significant event missing or misplaced on a particular date, feel free to leave a comment! Your suggestions will be considered for the next update.
To all Bitcoin enthusiasts, traders, and anyone eager to explore the history of cryptocurrency from its inception, I hope you enjoy this indicator :)
Adapted RSI w/ Multi-Asset Regime Detection v1.1The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of an asset's recent price changes to detect overbought or oversold conditions in the price of said asset.
In addition to identifying overbought and oversold assets, the RSI can also indicate whether your desired asset may be primed for a trend reversal or a corrective pullback in price. It can signal when to buy and sell.
The RSI will oscillate between 0 and 100. Traditionally, an RSI reading of 70 or above indicates an overbought condition. A reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold condition.
The RSI is one of the most popular technical indicators. I intend to offer a fresh spin.
Adapted RSI w/ Multi-Asset Regime Detection
Our Adapted RSI makes necessary improvements to the original Relative Strength Index (RSI) by combining multi-timeframe analysis with multi-asset monitoring and providing traders with an efficient way to analyse market-wide conditions across different timeframes and assets simultaneously. The indicator automatically detects market regimes and generates clear signals based on RSI levels, presenting this data in an organised, easy-to-read format through two dynamic tables. Simplicity is key, and having access to more RSI data at any given time, allows traders to prepare more effectively, especially when trading markets that "move" together.
How we calculate the RSI
First, the RSI identifies price changes between periods, calculating gains and losses from one look-back period to the next. This look-back period averages gains and losses over 14 periods, which in this case would be 14 days, and those gains/losses are calculated based on the daily closing price. For example:
Average Gain = Sum of Gains over the past 14 days / 14
Average Loss = Sum of Losses over the past 14 days / 14
Then we calculate the Relative Strength (RS):
RS = Average Gain / Average Loss
Finally, this is converted to the RSI value:
RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS))
Key Features
Our multi-timeframe RSI indicator enhances traditional technical analysis by offering synchronised Daily, Weekly, and Monthly RSI readings with automatic regime detection. The multi-asset monitoring system allows tracking of up to 10 different assets simultaneously, with pre-configured major pairs that can be customised to any asset selection. The signal generation system provides clear market guidance through automatic regime detection and a five-level signal system, all presented through a sophisticated visual interface with dynamic RSI line colouring and customisable display options.
Quick Guide to Use it
Begin by adding the indicator to your chart and configuring your preferred assets in the "Asset Comparison" settings.
Position the two information tables according to your preference.
The main table displays RSI analysis across three timeframes for your current asset, while the asset table shows a comparative analysis of all monitored assets.
Signals are colour-coded for instant recognition, with green indicating bullish conditions and red for bearish conditions. Pay special attention to regime changes and signal transitions, using multi-timeframe confluence to identify stronger signals.
How it Works (Regime Detection & Signals)
When we say 'Regime', a regime is determined by a persistent trend or in this case momentum and by leveraging this for RSI, which is a momentum oscillator, our indicator employs a relatively simple regime detection system that classifies market conditions as either Bullish (RSI > 50) or Bearish (RSI < 50). Our benchmark between a trending bullish or bearish market is equal to 50. By leveraging a simple classification system helps determine the probability of trend continuation and the weight given to various signals. Whilst we could determine a Neutral regime for consolidating markets, we have employed a 'neutral' signal generation which will be further discussed below...
Signal generation occurs across five distinct levels:
Strong Buy (RSI < 15)
Buy (RSI < 30)
Neutral (RSI 30-70)
Sell (RSI > 70)
Strong Sell (RSI > 85)
Each level represents different market conditions and probability scenarios. For instance, extreme readings (Strong Buy/Sell) indicate the highest probability of mean reversion, while neutral readings suggest equilibrium conditions where traders should focus on the overall regime bias (Bullish/Bearish momentum).
This approach offers traders a new and fresh spin on a popular and well-known tool in technical analysis, allowing traders to make better and more informed decisions from the well presented information across multiple assets and timeframes. Experienced and beginner traders alike, I hope you enjoy this adaptation.
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Premium v2 [Kendrick_Chan]In 2020, MicroStrategy, under the leadership of CEO Michael Saylor, began purchasing large amounts of Bitcoin to hedge against inflation and diversify its corporate treasury. This move transformed MicroStrategy into one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, with the company continually increasing its holdings through additional purchases funded by issuing new shares and convertible bonds.
The MicroStrategy Bitcoin Premium indicator is a dynamic tool that underscores the enthusiasm of equity market investors to gain Bitcoin exposure through MicroStrategy's (MSTR) stock. This indicator measures the premium investors are willing to pay for MSTR shares relative to the company's Bitcoin and cash holdings, reflecting the traditional market's eagerness to hold Bitcoin indirectly.
How Does It Work:
When MicroStrategy issues convertible bonds, cash level increases and all CB are assumed to convert to stocks diluting the shares.
In case of sales of MSTR new shares, cash level increases and diluted shares are adjusted tentatively before the quarterly financial reports.
In the event of Bitcoin purchases, the Bitcoins holding increases while cash level decreases.
Premium = Assumed Diluted Market Cap / ( Bitcoins Value + Cash and Cash Equivalents ) - 100%
How To Use:
By understanding and utilizing the MicroStrategy Bitcoin Premium indicator, traders and investors can make more informed decisions, whether they are swing trading MSTR, gauging Bitcoin demand, or seeking arbitrage opportunities.
1. MSTR Swing Traders
Swing traders can leverage the indicator to identify potential MSTR entry and exit points based on the overbought or oversold conditions of the stock.
2. Bitcoin Investors and Traders
The premium indicator can serve Bitcoin investors as a proxy for gauging overall market demand. A high premium indicates strong demand for Bitcoin exposure through MSTR, reflecting broader market enthusiasm for Bitcoin. A low premium suggests reduced demand.
Bitcoin traders may also anticipate the Bitcoin demand driven by MicroStrategy:
a) Shen the premium is high, MicroStrategy could issue new shares or convertible bonds to raise funds and buy more Bitcoins.
b) Arbitrageurs might also short sell MSTR and buy the equivalent Bitcoins.
3. MSTR-Bitcoin Arbitrageurs
Arbitrage traders can use the premium indicator to exploit price discrepancies between MSTR stock and Bitcoin. This strategy profits from any convergence between the stock price and the value of the underlying Bitcoin holdings.
The indicator helps identify optimal times to enter and exit arbitrage positions, minimizing risk and maximizing potential returns by capitalizing on market inefficiencies.