ema exhaustion (exa)The exa is an oscillator that combines fisher transform with distance from moving average and it is based on a theory that exhaustion can be derived from how far price is able to extend from a moving average, on average.
The fisher transform converts price into a gaussian normal distribution, also known as a bell curve {1}. A normal distribution is a type of probability distribution for a real-valued random variable {2}. Applying this method to the price of an asset can help to identify probabilities, but it will never identify certainties.
‘exa’ is an abbreviation for ema exhaustion. It can be used to identify when price is probable to revert to the mean but I prefer using it to confirm entries that are signaled following a reversion to the mean (aka buying the dip in bull markets). When price gets oversold into support, in a bull trend, then that can provide a good opportunity to enter long. However that isn’t necessarily the case when the same metrics indicate oversold conditions in a bear trend. In this situation the exa is best suited for identifying profit taking opportunities on shorts.
The default settings are a 9 lookback period and a 50 ema. By default signals will be derived from how far price is from the 50 ema relative to the probable distribution of the last 9 periods. If the exa is above 2, or below -2, then the price is in the 80th percentile of the prior 9 candles. Being outside of 3, or -3, represents the 90th percentile and 4, or -4, represents the 95th percentile.
Those ranges will never indicate a necessity of reverting to the mean, but they will indicate a higher and higher probability. I prefer to use this oscillator in combination with an indicator(s) that identifies the trend. When the oscillator reaches -2 in a bull trend then it can confirm long entry signals, whereas if it reaches +2 in a bull trend then it can be used to confirm signals to take profit.
Crossovers are especially significant because they indicate a shift in the tide. When the exa reaches 2 without crossing over then it is very much in a position to move to 3 or 4+. When it crosses above 2 then it is an indication that price is extended from the mean and exhausted.
This is certainly not a situation that implies price will revert to the mean, it simply provides confirmation.
The default settings are what I have been finding most effective personally, however that is mostly a function of the trend following tools that I use. The same principles should apply with all settings and I would encourage users to experiment with various lookback periods and emas.
{1} www.investopedia.com
{2} en.wikipedia.org
Exhaustion
Mean Reversion Channel - (fareid's MRI Variant)Description :
Mean Reversion Channel objective, based on Mean Reversion theory ( everything has a tendency to revert back to its mean), is to help visualizing:
Inner Channel -> Dynamic Support and Resistance
Outer Channel -> Overbought/Oversold Zone which may signal consolidation phase or potential reversal due to unsustainable move
Details on some of the filtering type used for mean calculation can be read in Ehlers Technical Papers: "Swiss Army Knife Indicator" and/or his book "Cybernetics Analysis for Stock and Futures"
Disclaimer:
These study scripts was built only to test/visualize an idea to see its viability and if it can be used to optimize existing strategy.
Any ideas to further improve this indicator are welcome :)
MESA Adaptive Moving Average - MTF and Divergence analysisThe latest iteration of the MESA Adaptive Moving Average - rewritten to make use of Pinescript v4 Arrays.
Explanation of settings and example use cases:
Fast Limit: Lower values will reduce the reactivity of the MA to rapid price changes.
- For instance, if you want to ignore price spikes on a low timeframe, then reduce Fast Limit
Slow Limit: Lower values will reduce the reactivity of the MA to slow price changes.
- For instance, if you want the MA to ignore small retracements during a trend, then reduce Slow Limit
Show MESA for next higher timeframe: Display the MA of the next standard timeframe that TV offers.
- Displays 3min if the chart timeframe is 1min. Displays D if the chart timeframe is 4H. Does not work with custom timeframes.
Show MESA for custom higher timeframe: Display a secondary MESA plot with a custom timeframe, selectable via the Custom Timeframe drop-down. Overrides the previous setting, if enabled. This functionality is experimental since it provides a higher sample rate than would normally be available. Take precautions making entries using only Custom Timeframe MESA.
- For instance, you made a decision on the 4H chart using MESA and are now watching the 15min to time a trade entry. Enable and select "4H" from the drop-down menu
Show Divergence between MESA Timeframes: Since divergence can differ greatly between assets, we form a baseline by continuously tracking the difference between the chart MA and higher timeframe MA. We note the maximum divergence in each direction (bullish and bearish). A white circle is plotted when divergence is close to the historical maximum. When a record-breaking divergence occurs, a yellow circle is plotted. You can tweak these indications by adjusting the Divergence Threshold %
- Multi-timeframe divergence is typically a weak indication of trend exhaustion, especially if Volume is not present.
Show Divergence between Source & MESA: Again, divergence can differ greatly between assets. This time, we form a baseline by continuously tracking the difference between the chart MA and Source (usually Close). We note the maximum divergence in each direction (bullish and bearish). A purple triangle is plotted when divergence is close to the historical maximum. When a record-breaking divergence occurs, a lime-green triangle is plotted. You can tweak these indications by adjusting the Divergence Threshold %
- Price divergence is a strong indicator of over-extension. It works well for timing reversals on intraday timeframes.
Source: The input data to perform MESA calculations on.
I've really enjoyed trading with this indicator, especially when combined with my previous two tools:
Empirical Suite : factors Trend, Price momentum, Volume, and Volatility
Squeeze Zone : provides a visual representation of volatility squeezes and attempts to predict breakout directions
Use this indicator to get a sense of overall trend, from any chart timeframe, as well as indications of over-extensions and exhaustion.
PT MSTx StochasticVersion 1.0 of our MSTx Stochastic indicator helps determine when a trend is strong vs. exhausted. The indicator is a modified version of the original stochastic. We added a second line for further confluence, which acts as support & resistance. The added smoothing toggle of the indicator can help you get a different perspective of the move. We also added a series of Fibonacci levels that act as pivotal areas. We have two highlighted areas that offer volatility. Our Red zone (upper fibs) should prompt you to look for short entries & our Grey zone (mid fibs), which acts as a neutral/range area.
Main line – Faster settings that move through support/resistance quicker.
Signal line- Slower settings that tend to act as support/resistance for our main line.
Strategy:
Shorting- Look for the Main line to cross down into the Signal line & then retest the Signal line. Stronger signal if algo is active (Maroon).
Longing – Look for the Main line to cross up into the Signal line & then retest the Signal line. Stronger signal if algo is active (Green).
This Oscillator was built around our buy sell indicator & it is used on all time frames for swinging & scalping. It is included as part of the library. Just message us for access!
Effort v RewardI made this indicator to make it easier to compare volume and price movement. This is similar in concept to the Market Facilitation Index by Bill Williams, although hopefully this can make that analysis easier to see at a glance (similar to the way some bar overlays/recolors work but with more detail and in its own pane). The primary use for this indicator would be paying attention to the red EMA, which shows the difference between price movement and volume, normalized within the normalization lookback period (adjustable, defaults to 30 bars). When the red ema moves up, it means there is less effort required to move price more, which means the trend (if there is one) is probably stronger or has had resistance removed/shaken out already; if the red ema moves down into the negative, it means there is a lot of effort for very little price movement, meaning a large battle between the bears and the bulls currently (squat). Enjoy, let me know if you want adjustments, and safe and successful trading!
Rolling Net VolumeMay still make changes, the current study should be helpful as is. Looking to highlight potential relative trend exhaustion in net volume. Should be most effective for stable supply assets. We're looking at an 100 day moving average of net volume essentially. The values of the RNV are slightly exaggerated to help with visibility PLEASE bear this in mind. Never the less, you can look at many commodities and notice moderate and extreme trend exhaustion on the positive and negative side using the transparent bands above and below. The less transparent red band perhaps suggests an opportunity to open a position against the current direction. It's not perfect, I may try to improve it. I am definitely open to feedback and appreciate it very much in advance.
Trend Exhaustion IndicatorThe Trend Exhaustion Indicator is a custom indicator of mine that is loosely based on the Trend Exhaustion Index created by Clifford L. Creel Ph.D. (Stocks & Commodities V. 9:1 (9-11))
This indicator will let you know the trend reversal points and when it falls below the signal line then the trend is ending vice versa. Buy when the indicator crosses above the signal line and sell when it falls below the signal line.
Let me know if you would like to see me write any other scripts!
Keltner Channels WidthSimilar to bollinger bands width, but for keltner channels, designed to recognize when a move is exhausted and contraction is to be expected.
Would use it as a filter to stay out of any trades if the indicator peaks (red color).
Exhausted Volume (Expo)Exhausted Volume (Expo)
DESCRIPTION
Exhausted Volume (Expo) indicator visualize exhausted volume. Exhaustion often signals the reversal of a current trend because it illustrates excess levels of supply or demand, indicating a market is either overbought or oversold.
The indicator can also be used to detect volume pressure in either direction which can occur in breakouts or in reversal points. The input variable ‘Volume Length’ can be changed. A longer Volume length means that the indicator detects bolder exhausted volume.
• Volume pressure is seen in reversal points.
• Volume pressure can be seen in breakouts.
The indicator is also equipped with exhausted volume signals that are more sensitive. This is visualized with arrows up and down. The investor has the ability to adjust the sensitivity of these signals.
HOW TO USE
1. Use the indicator to identify exhausted volume
2. Use the indicator to identify volume pressure.
3. Use the indicator to identify reversal points.
4. Use the indicator to identify breakouts.
Combine the indicator with ‘ Climax Volume (Expo) ’
INDICATOR IN ACTION
EURUSD
EURUSD
BTCUSD
BTCUSD
The indicator works with RENKO, HEIKIN ASHI and with KAGI charts as well.
I hope you find this indicator useful, and please comment or contact me if you like the script or have any questions/suggestions for future improvements. Thanks!
I will continue to work on this indicator, so please share your experience and feedback with me so that I can continuously improve it. Thanks to everyone that have contacted me regarding my scripts. Your feedback is valuable for future developments!
ACCESS THE INDICATOR
• Contact me on TradingView or use the links below
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Disclaimer
Copyright by Zeiierman.
The information contained in my scripts/indicators/ideas does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My scripts/indicators/ideas are only for educational purposes!
Price Action - Delivery Algorithm (Zeiierman)█ Overview
Price delivery algorithms in trading refer to complex computational algorithms used to determine the optimal price for executing trades. These algorithms are particularly relevant in electronic and algorithmic trading environments where large volumes of trades are executed automatically.
These algorithms are designed to analyze market data, including prices, volumes, and historical trends, to determine the most favorable price at which to execute a trade. They can take into account various factors such as market liquidity, price impact, and timing to optimize trade execution.
█ How It Works
Optimal price zones can be calculated in many different ways; we have decided to use a cycle method that determines the current dominant trend. The indicator functions by isolating a trend within a specific frequency range from various data.
Filter Logic and Loop:
The indicator computes a weighted average of historical prices over a range of past data points. It employs a loop to iterate over these past data points, applying a unique weight to each, depending on its position relative to the trend period.
Weight Calculation:
Weights are determined using triangle wave functions. The triangle wave function ensures that the weighting oscillates in synchronization with the desired trend period.
Summation:
The indicator aggregates the weighted prices from past periods to generate a single value for each point in time. This value signifies the strength and direction of the trend at the specified frequency. The results are used to determine the specific price zones.
█ How to Use
The price zones help traders identify the best times to enter and exit the market, similar to how support and resistance zones are used. The strategy is based on using price delivery algorithm zones to enter the market in areas commonly used by institutions for placing larger orders. The main advantage of this strategy is having the support of these heavier players.
█ Settings
Delivery Algorithm: This setting allows you to select the calculation method for the Delivery Algorithm. There are several options including "Price", "Swing High", "Swing Low", "Swing Mean", "Momentum", "Expansion", and "Volume". Each option represents a different way of analyzing market data, focusing on different aspects of price action or market dynamics. The choice here will influence how the algorithm interprets and responds to market data.
The corresponding length value is about the responsiveness of the Delivery Algorithm. Adjusting this value affects the algorithm's sensitivity to changes in market conditions. A higher value makes the algorithm more responsive, meaning it will react more strongly to recent market changes. This could be useful in volatile markets. On the other hand, a lower value makes the algorithm less responsive, resulting in more gradual adjustments. This might be preferable in more stable market conditions to avoid reacting to what might be considered 'market noise.'
Delivery Sensitivity: This setting adjusts the sensitivity of the algorithm's calculations to price movements. A higher value tends to smooth out the algorithm's output by considering a wider range of price data, which can be useful for identifying longer-term trends. A lower value makes the algorithm more sensitive to recent price movements, which can be helpful for short-term trading or scalping strategies. The option to enable Scalping Mode is particularly relevant for traders focusing on short-term, quick trades.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Leledc levels (IS) LeveLeledc - Exhaustion levels (InSilico)
Method for zero confirmation support/resistance level detection using Leledc Exhaustion Bars
Study is extension/mod of glaz script ,its implementing simple but unorthodox use-case for "Leledc Exhaustion Bars"
More information on core function in source scripts page ->
P.s Written quickly and spontaneously
Donato Trend Stength IndexThis indicator is a basic way to look at longer periods of time and look for exhaustion based on closes above or below RSI50. The first output is RSI14 the second is a rolling 100 day aggregate of closes where 50 acts as 0. As of now it appears totals of 1200+ /-1200- could be considered overbought / oversold, respectively. Totals near or above / below 2000 / -2000 (respectively) could be great indicators of extreme trend exhaustion and impending reversal.
ChaosSN Reversal Signal v2I calculated various metrics to measure exhaustion and mean diversion to plot arrows for a likely reversal point.
Use the input window to tailor the sensitivity of the arrows based on the amount of volatility your chart is experiencing (lower = more sensistive). The most common inputs for me are 8, 13, 21.
v2 Update:
Tweaked under the hood and added some bar colors.
Purple Bar = a secondary reversal indicator. Alignment with an arrow makes it a very strong signal.
Yellow Bar = pause in the action and a large move may occur soon
ATR ExhaustionThe ATR Exhaustion indicator for Tradingview will overlay the minimum and maximum price limits for a timeframe over your chart. It calculates the price limits be adding and subtracting the ATR level from the high and lows of the period you are interested in.
For example, you can see the daily upper and lower ATR levels whilst on a 15-minute chart. The upper and lower ranges will update as price moves.
Why would this be useful?
It the true price range on average does not move more than x pips/points, then the range boundaries might provide support/resistance levels as price approaches the levels. Additionally, you can use this tool to easily identify how volatile price action has been in comparison to previous periods.
Features
Easily see ATR Exhaustion areas in any timeframe
Period highs and lows are plotted and updated as price action unfolds
Color fills change when price moves beyond the ATR range for easy identification of periods of strong trends or volatility.
ALPHA: ExhaustionPLEASE READ THE ENTIRE POST BEFORE USING THE ALPHA EXHAUSTION INDICATOR
Capital Exhaustion Cycles
What is capital exhaustion? To explain it simply: Picture you are working out and eventually hit fatigue, at that point your body signals that you can no longer proceed and need to rest. Capital exhaustion with tradable assets (stocks, cryptocurrencies, etc.) occurs the same way. At some point, the market collectively becomes fatigued. Unable to push an asset a certain direction (can be bullish or bearish) the market reverses the direction of the trending price which results in a correction. This is natural & how markets need to work to keep an equilibrium true to the assets value. Being able to measure this in your analysis can be extremely valuable in deciding where to base your trades.
There are some indicators out there such as the TD Sequential (created by Tom Demark) that attempt to measure the exhaustion rate and identify potential capital shifts. I began to use the TD Sequential around 2012 when a colleague of mine sent me an article from Bloomberg on this theory used to measure exhaustion. The theory goes like this: If a candle within a trend is higher (or lower in the case of a bear trend) than the fourth candle back then the trend continues. By Tom Demark's theory the ninth candle is typically where the trend reverses and one must watch for a potential entry on a capital shift. There is a few factors that go into trading the TD Sequential (in addition to other elements he created for measuring such) that we wont get into, I'll explain why....
After using the TD for some years now I have found the reliability and use of it for analysis to be semi-flawed. Yes, there is trend reversals at some of the parameters Tom Demark outlined, but overall I have found the sequential part of it to not only be difficult to use, but also inaccurate to an extent that makes me uncomfortable when factoring it into my analysis. Yes, there are many successful traders that have used the TD in their analysis and have had great success with it. However, I feel the theory behind it can be improved and the visuals of it can be altered to be more user friendly.
This put me on a search for a more reliable and facile method to measure capital exhaustion. There is nothing perfect with Technical Analysis, if there was, one could theoretically own the entire market over time, so I approached this task with that in mind. As I begin to explain my ALPHA: Exhaustion indicator keep this in mind: Nothing can be perfected when it comes to measuring the predictability of human psychology and markets. However, I believe I have found a way to measure capital exhaustion in a clean, accurate, and easy to understand method. Applying this indicator to an analysis can greatly improve the accuracy, reliability and speed of an analyst. I've also added some really neat "safety precautions" to the indicator to indicate when an already confirmed trend is showing weakness (such as chop) or a premature reversal.
That being said, I introduce to you a new series of indicators created in my digital moon lab with a team of analysts: ALPHA
The ALPHA series will launch with this indicator first. From here I will be introducing a whole series of improved indicators to add to your analysis techniques. Bigger shake ups coming soon in the world of volume and strength oscillators. ;)
Introduction
My approach with the ALPHA: Exhaustion is simple, color the candles on a gradient scale based on my exhaustion method for an analyst to easily identify the rate of exhaustion. Additionally, add simple features that help confirm whether a trend has a confirmed beginning and ending. Furthermore I took it a step further and added features that detect weakness in a confirmed trend and give you early indications that the trend may reverse or cancel .
Keeping the advanced analyst in mind I also added options to identify unconfirmed trend beginnings and aggressive endings. These parameters are loose and designed for the analyst who has the comfort of being an aggressive trader. I will get into those options last as they are extremely speculative. The default options on the indicator are designed to show confirmed trends. As you play with this indicator you will discover that many times a wild swing has happened but the indicator was unable to identify it. The reason being is it is meant to identify CONFIRMED trends & be used with other indicators during an analysis, not just used for signals or independently of other analysis tools.
There are many factors that go into an assets price movement, exhaustion, volume, strength, momentum and more, it is unreasonable to think that one should base their analysis off of one of those factors alone. Technical analysis is like a puzzle, you have many puzzle pieces and its impossible to see the entire picture of the puzzle until you fit all those pieces together.
Candle Coloring
Seen below we have a clear trend beginning, the candles begin their normal color of green, as the trend continues the gradient of the white becomes brighter indicating exhaustion.
As the trend continues the indicator identifies that the market is exhausting and colors the candles a brighter white. (see below)
Eventually once the trend exhausts the indicator identifies & confirms the exhaustion and reverts back the coloring in real time as price adjusts. But wait there is more!
Safety Symbols
There is an option to turn the safety symbols off and on as can be seen in this link below:
imgur.com
This option does two things. The first is it adds half crescents to the top or bottom of a trend like the image below.
These half crescents indicate that the trend is beyond normal exhaustion parameters but is still continuing. At this point, this is where I pay attention and watch for the crescents to disappear. When the crescents disappear the candle coloring will change back to normal indicating that trend has confirmed as exhausted. It is entirely possible to have one or two candles of chop and then it continues but generally it has meant exhaustion criteria. One feature I have added is once the crescents disappear the indicator watches for a confirmed trend reversal to begin and will paint an arrow showing the trend reversal confirmation. We will get into that later though.
The second feature of the safety symbols is the risk line. The option also enables the risk line of the prior trends top. (See image below)
If a trader were to find entries of a confirmed trend based on the indicator painting the confirmed trend arrow (will explain further down) then one could place their stop loss there, but proper analysis should be done and decided upon by the user . (Keep in mind this is an indicator for analysis, not a signal generating system, please be sure to read the disclosures on my website www.thetradingwizard.com and also the disclosure at the end of this post)
Confirmed Trend
By default the indicator paints a pink (for downtrend confirmation) or blue (uptrend) arrow on a confirmed trend reversal after exhaustion of a prior trend.
The arrow paints in real time as the criteria is met of an exhausted trend on the third candle. Once the prior trend is exhausted (can happen with or without the crescent safety (or pay attention) symbols. The design of it can sometimes be late in an assets movement, but its meant to be a confirmed trend at that point.
Trend End
Additionally, after a confirmed trend beginning the indicator watches for weakness or a trend ending criteria match. When it identifies such, the indicator paints a pink or blue (depending on the direction) stop sign.
These trend endings can come in two forms, the indicator has realized trend exhaustion has occurred and is going to reverse very near, or it has identified weakness in capital exhaustion and paints the symbol to let you know the trend is either going to reverse, or chop. (sideways with no clear trend) Below is examples of when the indicator identified the weakness early in real time after a trend start confirmation.
As can be seen above the indicator confirmed an uptrend and then later identified weakness in the trend indicating an early termination before the risk line was hit. It is typically early (by design) but there is an option for a more aggressive trend ending. This has less confirmation protocols built in when enabled, I will explain that in the next section.
Aggressive Trend End
Seen in the link here is the Aggressive trend end option:
imgur.com
This option loosens the rules & parameters for a trend ending and gives a more aggressive view of a trend end. This is for aggressive analysts that would like a less confirmed trend ending.
Aggressive Unconfirmed Trend
Another option that can be enabled is Aggressive Trend arrows. In order to use this you must enable Aggressive Trend Ending:
imgur.com
What this option does is identify in real time early trends that are unconfirmed . You will get a lot of arrows painted with this option enabled but it is designed for analysts who take a more aggressive & unconfirmed approach to trading.
Conclusion
I wanted to create a more accurate and easy to use indicator for identifying exhaustion cycles, I believe this does so. That being said, it is extremely important to note as I did in the intro that this is an analysis tool, simply a piece to add to your analysis arsenal. Never rely on one piece of information for analysis as technical analysis is a complex art that requires many data inputs. This indicator can be used on all time frames with all tradable assets.
This indicator is available for TradingView users on my web site www.thetradingwizard.com for $99, that includes a life time subscription. Everybody that uses this indicator will get a private group class with it that I will schedule sometime next week (3/4/19-3/8/19) to explain various methods this can be used with analysis and answer any questions the users may have. If you purchase after those dates I will still send the class recording. Additionally I will be doing a public stream on my YouTube either tonight or tomorrow introducing this. Enjoy and trade safe!
www.thetradingwizard.com
Disclaimer
Nothing in this post is to be used or construed as financial advice. The indicator is not a signal generating indicator and should not be used to trade off of solely. This post is meant as an educational post to explain the functions of the indicator.
Sim-Wave-DNA A nice script that helps finding tradable market conditions.
The Sim-Wave-DNA consist of 3 parts.
Volume
Money Flow
Advisor
Volumen bars > 0 show the Normalized Volume where the volume exceeding the pink line (exceeding the average of vol) is plotted in solide color
Money Flow bars < 0 show the amount of capital flowing in and out of the market, red is negative and green positive moneyflow.
The advisory (arrows) shows areas of caution, this are likely reversal areas.
Happy Trading
Slow Stochastic + ADX exhaustationSlow stochastic with ADX exhaustation and sell/entry points as orange/green circles.
This is a script I remade from Marco Valente's "RSI Combo" and Oshri17 "Slow stochastic".
Credits and thanks to them for sharing, I just expanded the diversity ^^
Hope you enjoy phit! ;D
RSI Swing Signal - ChartThis indicator is the chart version intended to accompany my custom RSI oscillator:
CLICK HERE TO SEE BASE INDICATOR
CLICK HERE TO SEE BASE INDICATOR
RSI MITROV 1.0i do my notes lookin at this oscilator in Monthly, Weekly, Daily and 240.
more conffluency more chances to make some retracement or change trends direction
EXAMPLES
