Smart match finder🔍 Pattern Match Finder
What It Does:
This indicator finds historical price patterns that look similar to your current price action and projects what might happen next based on what happened after those past patterns.
How It Works:
📊 Captures Current Pattern - Takes the last 30 bars (configurable) of price movement as your "current pattern"
🔎 Searches History - Scans up to 2,500 bars back looking for price patterns that moved similarly
📈 Matches by Trend - When "Same Condition" is ON, it only finds patterns that moved in the same direction (bullish matches bullish, bearish matches bearish)
🎯 Quality Filter - Uses correlation (75%+ by default) to ensure matches are high quality, not random
🔮 Projects Future - Takes what happened AFTER those historical matches and draws a prediction (yellow dashed line) showing where price might go next
📊 Shows Best Match - Highlights the best matching pattern with cyan vertical lines and overlays it on your current chart
Key Features:
✅ Trend-aware matching - Finds patterns with same market direction
✅ Quality scoring - Shows correlation % and match quality (Excellent/Good/Fair)
✅ Visual projection - Yellow prediction line showing expected price movement
✅ Smart filtering - Adjustable correlation and distance thresholds
✅ No match alerts - Warns you when no similar patterns exist
Technical Strength:
This indicator employs advanced statistical correlation analysis combined with normalized pattern recognition algorithms, making it highly effective for identifying statistically significant price pattern repetitions with quantifiable confidence metrics.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer:
This tool is for educational and analytical purposes only. Pattern projections are based on historical data and should NOT be used as the sole basis for buy/sell decisions. Always combine with proper risk management, fundamental analysis, and other technical tools before making any trading decisions.
Forecast
Bollinger Bands Forecast [QuantAlgo]🟢 Overview
Bollinger Bands are widely recognized for mapping volatility boundaries around price action, but they inherently lag behind market movement since they calculate based on completed bars. The Bollinger Bands Forecast addresses this limitation by adding a predictive layer that attempts to project where the upper band, lower band, and basis line might position in the future. The indicator provides three unique analytical models for generating these projections: one examines swing structure and breakout patterns, another integrates volume flow and accumulation metrics, while the third applies statistical trend fitting. Traders can select whichever methodology aligns with their market view or trading style to gain visibility into potential future volatility zones that could inform position planning, risk management, and timing decisions across various asset classes and timeframes.
🟢 How It Works
The core calculation begins with traditional Bollinger Bands: a moving average basis line (configurable as SMA, EMA, SMMA/RMA, WMA, or VWMA) with upper and lower bands positioned at a specified number of standard deviations away. The forecasting extension works by first generating predicted price values for upcoming bars using the selected method. These projected prices then feed into a rolling calculation that simulates how the basis line would update bar by bar, respecting the mathematical properties of the chosen moving average type. As each new forecasted price enters the calculation window, the oldest historical price drops out, mimicking the natural progression of the moving average. The system recalculates standard deviation across this evolving price window and applies the multiplier to determine where upper and lower bands would theoretically sit. This process repeats for each of the forecasted bars, creating a connected chain of potential future band positions that render as dashed lines on the chart.
🟢 Key Features
1. Market Structure Model
This forecasting approach interprets price through the lens of swing analysis and structural patterns. The algorithm identifies pivot highs and lows across a definable lookback window, then tracks whether price is forming higher highs and higher lows (bullish structure) or lower highs and lower lows (bearish structure). The system looks for break of structure (BOS) when price pushes beyond a previous swing point in the trending direction, or change of character (CHoCH) when price starts creating opposing swing patterns.
When projecting future prices, the model considers current distance from recent swing levels and the strength of the established trend (measured by counting higher highs versus lower lows). If bullish structure dominates and price sits near a swing low, the forecast biases upward. Conversely, bearish structure near a swing high produces downward bias. ATR scaling ensures the projection magnitude relates to actual market volatility.
Practical Implications for Traders:
Useful when you trade based on swing points and structural breaks
The Structure Influence slider (0 to 1) lets you dial in how much weight structure analysis carries versus pure trend
Helps visualize where bands could form around key structural levels you're watching
Works better in trending conditions where structure patterns are clearer
Might be less effective in choppy, sideways markets without defined swings
2. Volume-Weighted Model
This method attempts to incorporate volume flow into the price forecast. It combines three volume-based metrics: On-Balance Volume (OBV) to track cumulative buying/selling pressure, the Accumulation/Distribution Line to measure money flow, and volume-weighted price changes to emphasize moves that occur on high volume. The algorithm calculates the slope of these indicators to determine if volume is confirming price direction or diverging from it.
Volume spikes above a configurable threshold are flagged as potentially significant, with the direction of the spike (whether it occurred on an up bar or down bar) influencing the forecast. When OBV, A/D Line, and volume momentum all align in the same direction, the model projects stronger moves. When they conflict or show weak volume support, the forecast becomes more conservative.
Practical Implications for Traders:
Relevant if you use volume analysis to confirm price moves
More meaningful in markets with reliable volume data
The Volume Influence parameter (0 to 1) controls how much volume factors into the projection
Volume Spike Threshold adjusts sensitivity to what constitutes unusual volume
Helps spot scenarios where volume doesn't support a move, suggesting possible consolidation
Might be less effective in low-liquidity instruments or markets where volume reporting is unreliable
3. Linear Regression Model
The simplest of the three methods, linear regression fits a straight line through recent price data using least-squares mathematics and extends that line forward. This creates a clean trend projection without conditional logic or interpretation of market characteristics. The forecast simply asks: if the recent trend continues at its current rate of change, where would price be in 10 or 20 bars?
Practical Implications for traders:
Provides a neutral, mathematical baseline for comparison
Works well when trends are steady and consistent
Can be useful for backtesting since results are deterministic
Requires minimal configuration beyond lookback period
Might not adapt to changing market conditions as dynamically as the other methods
Best suited for trending markets rather than ranging or volatile conditions
🟢 Universal Applications Across All Models
Regardless of which forecasting method you select, the indicator projects future Bollinger Band positions that may help with:
▶ Pre-planning entries and exits: See where potential support (lower band) or resistance (upper band) might develop before price gets there
▶ Volatility context: Observe whether forecasted bands are widening (suggesting potential volatility expansion) or narrowing (possible compression or squeeze setup)
▶ Target setting: Reference projected band levels when determining profit targets or stop placement
▶ Mean reversion scenarios: Visualize potential paths back toward the basis line when price extends to a band extreme
▶ Breakout anticipation: Consider where upper or lower bands might sit if price begins a strong directional move
▶ Strategy development: Build trading rules around forecasted band interactions, such as entering when price is projected to return to the basis or exit when forecasts show band expansion
▶ Method comparison: Switch between the three forecasting models to see if they agree or diverge, potentially using consensus as a confidence filter
It's critical to understand that these forecasts are projections based on recent market behavior. Markets are complex systems influenced by countless factors that cannot be captured in a technical calculation or predicted perfectly. The forecasted bands represent one possible scenario of how volatility might unfold, so actual price action may still diverge from these projections. Past performance and historical patterns provide no assurance of future results. Use these forecasts as one input within a broader trading framework that includes proper risk management, position sizing, and multiple forms of analysis. The value lies not in prediction accuracy but in helping you think probabilistically about potential market states and plan accordingly.
Stochastic RSI Forecast [QuantAlgo]🟢 Overview
The Stochastic RSI Forecast extends the classic momentum oscillator by projecting potential future K and D line values up to 10 bars ahead. Unlike traditional indicators that only reflect historical price action, this indicator uses three proprietary forecasting models, each operating on different market data inputs (price structure, volume metrics, or linear trend), to explore potential price paths. This unique approach allows traders to form probabilistic expectations about future momentum states and incorporate these projections into both discretionary and algorithmic trading and/or analysis.
🟢 How It Works
The indicator operates through a multi-stage calculation process that extends the RSI-to-Stochastic chain forward in time. First, it generates potential future price values using one of three selectable forecasting methods, each analyzing different market dimensions (structure, volume, or trend). These projected prices are then processed through an iterative RSI calculation that maintains continuity with historical gain/loss averages, producing forecasted RSI values. Finally, the system applies the full stochastic transformation (calculating the position of each forecasted RSI within its range, smoothing with K and D periods) to project potential future oscillator values.
The forecasting models adapt to market conditions by analyzing configurable lookback periods and recalculating projections on every bar update. The implementation preserves the mathematical properties of the underlying RSI calculation while extrapolating momentum trajectories, creating visual continuity between historical and forecasted values displayed as semi-transparent dashed lines extending beyond the current bar.
🟢 Key Features
1. Market Structure Model
This algorithm applies price action analysis by tracking break of structure (BOS) and change of character (CHoCH) patterns to identify potential order flow direction. The system detects swing highs and lows using configurable pivot lengths, then analyzes sequences of higher highs or lower lows to determine bullish or bearish structure bias. When price approaches recent swing points, the forecast projects moves in alignment with the established structure, scaled by ATR (Average True Range) for volatility adjustment.
Potential Benefits for Traders:
Explores potential momentum continuation scenarios during established trends
Identifies areas where structure changes might influence momentum
Could be useful for swing traders and position traders who incorporate structure-based analysis
The Structure Influence parameter (0-1 scale) allows blending between pure trend following and structure-weighted forecasts
Helps visualize potential trend exhaustion through weakening structure patterns
2. Volume-Weighted Model
This model analyzes volume patterns by combining On-Balance Volume (OBV), Accumulation/Distribution Line, and volume-weighted price returns to assess potential capital flow. The algorithm calculates directional volume momentum and identifies volume spikes above customizable thresholds to determine accumulation or distribution phases. When volume indicators align directionally, the forecast projects stronger potential moves; when volume diverges from price trends, it suggests possible reversals or consolidation.
Potential Benefits for Traders:
Incorporates volume analysis into momentum forecasting
Attempts to filter price action by volume support or lack thereof
Could be more relevant in markets where volume data is reliable (equities, crypto, major forex pairs)
Volume Influence parameter (0-1 scale) enables adaptation to different market liquidity profiles
Highlights volume climax patterns that sometimes precede trend changes
Could be valuable for traders who incorporate volume confirmation in their analysis
3. Linear Regression Model
This mathematical approach applies least-squares regression fitting to project price trends based on recent price data. Unlike the conditional logic of the other methods, linear regression provides straightforward trend extrapolation based on the best-fit line through the lookback period.
Potential Benefits for Traders:
Delivers consistent, reproducible forecasts based on statistical principles
Works better in trending markets with clear directional bias
Useful for systematic traders building quantitative strategies requiring stable inputs
Minimal parameter sensitivity (primarily controlled by lookback period)
Computationally efficient with fast recalculation on every bar
Serves as a baseline to compare against the more complex structure and volume methods
🟢 Universal Applications Across All Models
Each forecasting method projects potential future stochastic RSI values (K and D lines), which traders can use to:
▶ Anticipate potential crossovers: Visualize possible K/D crosses several bars ahead
▶ Explore overbought/oversold scenarios: Forecast when momentum might return from extreme zones
▶ Assess divergences: Evaluate how oscillator divergences might develop
▶ Inform entry timing: Consider potential points along the forecasted momentum curve for trade entry
▶ Develop systematic strategies: Build rules based on forecasted crossovers, slope changes, or threshold levels
▶ Adapt to market conditions: Switch between methods based on current market character (trending vs range-bound, high vs low volume)
In short, the indicator's flexibility allows traders to combine forecasting projections with traditional stochastic signals, using historical K/D for immediate reference while considering forecasted values for planning and analysis. As with all technical analysis tools, the forecasts represent one possible scenario among many and should be used as part of a broader trading methodology rather than as standalone signals.
NeuroSwarm ETH — Crowd vs Experts Forecast TrackerEnglish:
NeuroSwarm — Crowd vs Experts Forecast Tracker (ETH)
This indicator visualizes monthly forecast data collected from two independent groups:
Crowd – a large sample of retail participants
Experts – a curated group of analysts and experienced market participants
For each month, the indicator plots the following values as horizontal levels on the price chart:
Median forecast (Crowd)
Average forecast (Crowd)
Median forecast (Experts)
Average forecast (Experts)
Shaded zones highlighting the difference between median and mean
All values are fixed for each month and stay unchanged historically.
This allows traders to analyze sentiment dynamics and compare how expectations from both groups align or diverge from actual price action.
Purpose:
This tool is intended for sentiment visualization and analytical insight — it does not generate trading signals.
Its main goal is to compare collective expectations of retail traders vs experts across time.
Data source:
All forecasts come from monthly surveys conducted within the NeuroSwarm project between the 1st and 5th day of each month.
Interface notice:
The script's UI may contain non-English labels for convenience, but a full English documentation is provided here in compliance with TradingView rules.
Русская версия:
NeuroSwarm — Мудрость Толпы vs Эксперты (ETH)
Индикатор отображает ежемесячные прогнозы двух групп:
Толпа: медиана и средняя прогнозов
Эксперты: медиана и средняя прогнозов
Значения фиксируются для каждого месяца и показываются горизонтальными уровнями.
Заливка отображает диапазон между медианой и средней, что упрощает визуальное сравнение настроений.
Это аналитический инструмент для визуализации настроений — не торговая стратегия.
Все данные берутся из ежемесячных опросов проекта NeuroSwarm.
NeuroSwarm BTC — Crowd vs Experts Forecast TrackerEnglish:
NeuroSwarm — Crowd vs Experts Forecast Tracker (BTC)
This indicator visualizes monthly forecasts collected from two independent groups:
Crowd – a large sample of retail traders
Experts – a smaller, curated group of analysts and experienced market participants
For each month, the following values are displayed as horizontal levels on the chart:
Median forecast of the Crowd
Average forecast of the Crowd
Median forecast of Experts
Average forecast of Experts
Shaded zones showing the range between median and mean
The values remain fixed throughout each month. This allows traders to compare sentiment dynamics between groups and see how expectations evolve relative to actual market movement.
Purpose:
This indicator is designed for sentiment analysis — NOT for generating trading signals.
It helps identify divergences between retail expectations and expert forecasts, which can be informative during trend transitions.
Data source:
All values come from monthly surveys conducted within the NeuroSwarm project (1–5 of every month).
Crowd and Expert groups are collected separately to avoid bias and to preserve independent aggregation.
Interface language note:
The indicator’s interface may contain non-English labels for ease of use, but full English documentation is provided here in compliance with TradingView House Rules.
Русская версия (optional, allowed only AFTER English):
NeuroSwarm — Мудрость Толпы vs Эксперты (BTC)
Индикатор показывает ежемесячные прогнозы двух групп:
Толпа: медиана и средняя прогнозов
Эксперты: медиана и средняя прогнозов
Значения фиксируются на весь месяц и отображаются на графике горизонтальными уровнями.
Заливка показывает диапазон между медианой и средней.
Цель индикатора — визуализировать настроение толпы и экспертов и сравнить его с реальным движением цены.
Это аналитический инструмент, а не торговая стратегия.
Данные берутся из ежемесячных опросов (1–5 числа), проводимых в рамках проекта NeuroSwarm.
Auto Seasonality Scanner by Novatrix CapitalThe Auto Seasonality Scanner analyzes historical daily price data to identify recurring seasonal patterns in the market. It highlights periods over the last 10 years where certain price movements have historically occurred. This indicator is designed for the DAILY (1D) timeframe only.
Key Features:
Visualizes historical entry and exit points for Long and Short patterns using vertical lines.
Option to exclude specific years (e.g., 2020) from the analysis.
Optional filter by US election cycles.
Calculates average returns, win rates, trade lengths, and number of trades for each pattern.
Displays results in a customizable table with color-coded Long and Short patterns.
This tool is for educational and informational purposes only. It provides a visual guide to potential recurring seasonal trends and does not constitute financial advice or trading recommendations.
RSI Forecast Colorful [DiFlip]RSI Forecast Colorful
Introducing one of the most complete RSI indicators available — a highly customizable analytical tool that integrates advanced prediction capabilities. RSI Forecast Colorful is an evolution of the classic RSI, designed to anticipate potential future RSI movements using linear regression. Instead of simply reacting to historical data, this indicator provides a statistical projection of the RSI’s future behavior, offering a forward-looking view of market conditions.
⯁ Real-Time RSI Forecasting
For the first time, a public RSI indicator integrates linear regression (least squares method) to forecast the RSI’s future behavior. This innovative approach allows traders to anticipate market movements based on historical trends. By applying Linear Regression to the RSI, the indicator displays a projected trendline n periods ahead, helping traders make more informed buy or sell decisions.
⯁ Highly Customizable
The indicator is fully adaptable to any trading style. Dozens of parameters can be optimized to match your system. All 28 long and short entry conditions are selectable and configurable, allowing the construction of quantitative, statistical, and automated trading models. Full control over signals ensures precise alignment with your strategy.
⯁ Innovative and Science-Based
This is the first public RSI indicator to apply least-squares predictive modeling to RSI calculations. Technically, it incorporates machine-learning logic into a classic indicator. Using Linear Regression embeds strong statistical foundations into RSI forecasting, making this tool especially valuable for traders seeking quantitative and analytical advantages.
⯁ Scientific Foundation: Linear Regression
Linear regression is a fundamental statistical method that models the relationship between a dependent variable y and one or more independent variables x. The general formula for simple linear regression is:
y = β₀ + β₁x + ε
where:
y = predicted variable (e.g., future RSI value)
x = explanatory variable (e.g., bar index or time)
β₀ = intercept (value of y when x = 0)
β₁ = slope (rate of change of y relative to x)
ε = random error term
The goal is to estimate β₀ and β₁ by minimizing the sum of squared errors. This is achieved using the least squares method, ensuring the best linear fit to historical data. Once the coefficients are calculated, the model extends the regression line forward, generating the RSI projection based on recent trends.
⯁ Least Squares Estimation
To minimize the error between predicted and observed values, we use the formulas:
β₁ = Σ((xᵢ - x̄)(yᵢ - ȳ)) / Σ((xᵢ - x̄)²)
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Σ denotes summation; x̄ and ȳ are the means of x and y; and i ranges from 1 to n (number of observations). These equations produce the best linear unbiased estimator under the Gauss–Markov assumptions — constant variance (homoscedasticity) and a linear relationship between variables.
⯁ Linear Regression in Machine Learning
Linear regression is a foundational component of supervised learning. Its simplicity and precision in numerical prediction make it essential in AI, predictive algorithms, and time-series forecasting. Applying regression to RSI is akin to embedding artificial intelligence inside a classic indicator, adding a new analytical dimension.
⯁ Visual Interpretation
Imagine a time series of RSI values like this:
Time →
RSI →
The regression line smooths these historical values and projects itself n periods forward, creating a predictive trajectory. This projected RSI line can cross the actual RSI, generating sophisticated entry and exit signals. In summary, the RSI Forecast Colorful indicator provides both the current RSI and the forecasted RSI, allowing comparison between past and future trend behavior.
⯁ Summary of Scientific Concepts Used
Linear Regression: Models relationships between variables using a straight line.
Least Squares: Minimizes squared prediction errors for optimal fit.
Time-Series Forecasting: Predicts future values from historical patterns.
Supervised Learning: Predictive modeling based on known output values.
Statistical Smoothing: Reduces noise to highlight underlying trends.
⯁ Why This Indicator Is Revolutionary
Scientifically grounded: Built on statistical and mathematical theory.
First of its kind: The first public RSI with least-squares predictive modeling.
Intelligent: Incorporates machine-learning logic into RSI interpretation.
Forward-looking: Generates predictive, not just reactive, signals.
Customizable: Exceptionally flexible for any strategic framework.
⯁ Conclusion
By combining RSI and linear regression, the RSI Forecast Colorful allows traders to predict market momentum rather than simply follow it. It's not just another indicator: it's a scientific advancement in technical analysis technology. Offering 28 configurable entry conditions and advanced signals, this open-source indicator paves the way for innovative quantitative systems.
⯁ Example of simple linear regression with one independent variable
This example demonstrates how a basic linear regression works when there is only one independent variable influencing the dependent variable. This type of model is used to identify a direct relationship between two variables.
⯁ In linear regression, observations (red) are considered the result of random deviations (green) from an underlying relationship (blue) between a dependent variable (y) and an independent variable (x)
This concept illustrates that sampled data points rarely align perfectly with the true trend line. Instead, each observed point represents the combination of the true underlying relationship and a random error component.
⯁ Visualizing heteroscedasticity in a scatterplot with 100 random fitted values using Matlab
Heteroscedasticity occurs when the variance of the errors is not constant across the range of fitted values. This visualization highlights how the spread of data can change unpredictably, which is an important factor in evaluating the validity of regression models.
⯁ The datasets in Anscombe’s quartet were designed to have nearly the same linear regression line (as well as nearly identical means, standard deviations, and correlations) but look very different when plotted
This classic example shows that summary statistics alone can be misleading. Even with identical numerical metrics, the datasets display completely different patterns, emphasizing the importance of visual inspection when interpreting a model.
⯁ Result of fitting a set of data points with a quadratic function
This example illustrates how a second-degree polynomial model can better fit certain datasets that do not follow a linear trend. The resulting curve reflects the true shape of the data more accurately than a straight line.
⯁ What Is RSI?
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a technical indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder. It measures the velocity and magnitude of recent price movements to identify overbought and oversold conditions. The RSI ranges from 0 to 100 and is commonly used to identify potential reversals and evaluate trend strength.
⯁ How RSI Works
RSI is calculated from average gains and losses over a set period (commonly 14 bars) and plotted on a 0–100 scale. It consists of three key zones:
Overbought: RSI above 70 may signal an overbought market.
Oversold: RSI below 30 may signal an oversold market.
Neutral Zone: RSI between 30 and 70, indicating no extreme condition.
These zones help identify potential price reversals and confirm trend strength.
⯁ Entry Conditions
All conditions below are fully customizable and allow detailed control over entry signal creation.
📈 BUY
🧲 Signal Validity: Signal remains valid for X bars.
🧲 Signal Logic: Configurable using AND or OR.
🧲 RSI > Upper
🧲 RSI < Upper
🧲 RSI > Lower
🧲 RSI < Lower
🧲 RSI > Middle
🧲 RSI < Middle
🧲 RSI > MA
🧲 RSI < MA
🧲 MA > Upper
🧲 MA < Upper
🧲 MA > Lower
🧲 MA < Lower
🧲 RSI (Crossover) Upper
🧲 RSI (Crossunder) Upper
🧲 RSI (Crossover) Lower
🧲 RSI (Crossunder) Lower
🧲 RSI (Crossover) Middle
🧲 RSI (Crossunder) Middle
🧲 RSI (Crossover) MA
🧲 RSI (Crossunder) MA
🧲 MA (Crossover)Upper
🧲 MA (Crossunder)Upper
🧲 MA (Crossover) Lower
🧲 MA (Crossunder) Lower
🧲 RSI Bullish Divergence
🧲 RSI Bearish Divergence
🔮 RSI (Crossover) Forecast MA
🔮 RSI (Crossunder) Forecast MA
📉 SELL
🧲 Signal Validity: Signal remains valid for X bars.
🧲 Signal Logic: Configurable using AND or OR.
🧲 RSI > Upper
🧲 RSI < Upper
🧲 RSI > Lower
🧲 RSI < Lower
🧲 RSI > Middle
🧲 RSI < Middle
🧲 RSI > MA
🧲 RSI < MA
🧲 MA > Upper
🧲 MA < Upper
🧲 MA > Lower
🧲 MA < Lower
🧲 RSI (Crossover) Upper
🧲 RSI (Crossunder) Upper
🧲 RSI (Crossover) Lower
🧲 RSI (Crossunder) Lower
🧲 RSI (Crossover) Middle
🧲 RSI (Crossunder) Middle
🧲 RSI (Crossover) MA
🧲 RSI (Crossunder) MA
🧲 MA (Crossover)Upper
🧲 MA (Crossunder)Upper
🧲 MA (Crossover) Lower
🧲 MA (Crossunder) Lower
🧲 RSI Bullish Divergence
🧲 RSI Bearish Divergence
🔮 RSI (Crossover) Forecast MA
🔮 RSI (Crossunder) Forecast MA
🤖 Automation
All BUY and SELL conditions can be automated using TradingView alerts. Every configurable condition can trigger alerts suitable for fully automated or semi-automated strategies.
⯁ Unique Features
Linear Regression Forecast
Signal Validity: Keep signals active for X bars
Signal Logic: AND/OR configuration
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Chart Labels: BUY/SELL markers above price
Automation & Alerts: BUY/SELL
Background Colors: bgcolor
Fill Colors: fill
Linear Regression Forecast
Signal Validity: Keep signals active for X bars
Signal Logic: AND/OR configuration
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Chart Labels: BUY/SELL markers above price
Automation & Alerts: BUY/SELL
Background Colors: bgcolor
Fill Colors: fill
MarketSurge EPS Line [tradeviZion]MarketSurge EPS Line
EPS trend line overlay for TradingView charts, inspired by the IBD MarketSurge (formerly MarketSmith) EPS line style.
Comparison: Left side shows IBD MarketSurge EPS line as reference. Right side shows this TradingView script producing similar output with interactive tooltips. The left side image is for reference only to demonstrate similarity - it is not part of the TradingView script.
Features:
Displays EPS trend line on price charts
Uses 4-quarter earnings moving average
Shows earnings momentum over time
Works with actual, estimated, or standardized earnings data
Customizable line color and width
Interactive tooltips with detailed earnings information
Custom symbol analysis support
How to Use:
Add script to chart
EPS line appears automatically
Adjust color and width in settings if needed
Hover over line for earnings details
Settings Explained:
Display Settings:
Show EPS Line: Toggle to show or hide the EPS trend line
EPS Line Color: Choose the color for the EPS trend line and labels
EPS Line Width: Adjust the thickness of the EPS trend line (1-5 pixels)
Symbol Settings:
By default, the indicator analyzes the EPS data for the symbol currently displayed on your chart. The Custom Symbol feature allows you to:
Analyze EPS data for a different symbol without changing your chart
Compare earnings trends of related stocks or competitors
View EPS data for one symbol while analyzing price action of another
To use Custom Symbol:
Enable "Use Custom Symbol" checkbox
Click on "Custom Symbol" field to open TradingView's symbol picker
Search and select the symbol you want to analyze
The indicator will fetch and display EPS data for the selected symbol
Note: The chart will still show price action for your current symbol, but the EPS line will reflect the custom symbol's earnings data.
Data Settings:
EPS Field: Choose which earnings data source to use:
Actual Earnings: Reported earnings from company financial statements (default). Use this to analyze historical performance based on what companies actually reported.
Estimated Earnings: Analyst consensus forecasts for future quarters. Use this to see what analysts expect and compare expectations with actual results.
Standardized Earnings: Earnings adjusted for comparability across companies. Use this when comparing multiple stocks as it normalizes accounting differences.
Display Scale:
For the indicator to display correctly on the existing chart, it uses its own axis (right scale) by default. However, you can change this, but the view will not look the same. The right scale is recommended for optimal visibility as it allows the EPS line to be clearly visible alongside price action without compression.
Example: EPS line on separate right scale (recommended) - hover over labels to view detailed earnings tooltips
Example: EPS line pinned to Scale A (not recommended - appears as straight line due to small EPS range compared to price)
Example: EPS line displayed in separate pane below price chart
Methodology Credits:
This indicator implements the EPS line visualization methodology developed by Investor's Business Daily (IBD) for their MarketSurge platform (formerly known as MarketSmith). The EPS line concept helps visualize earnings momentum alongside price action, providing a fundamental overlay for technical analysis.
Technical Details:
Designed for daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes
Minimum 4 quarters of earnings data required
Uses TradingView's built-in earnings data
Automatically handles missing or invalid data
This indicator helps you visualize earnings trends alongside price action, providing a fundamental overlay for your technical analysis.
Bollinger Bands Regression Forecast [BigBeluga]🔵 OVERVIEW
The Bollinger Bands Regression Forecast combines volatility envelopes from Bollinger Bands with a linear regression-based projection model .
It visualizes both current and future price zones by extrapolating the Bollinger channel forward in time, giving traders a statistical forecast of probable support and resistance behavior.
🔵 CONCEPTS
Classic Bollinger Bands use a moving average (basis) and standard deviation (deviation) to form dynamic envelopes around price.
This indicator enhances them with linear regression slope detection , allowing it to forecast how the band may expand or contract in the future.
Regression is applied to both the band’s basis and deviation components to predict their trajectory for a user-defined number of Forecast Bars .
The resulting forecast creates a smoothed, funnel-shaped projection that dynamically adapts to volatility.
▲ and ▼ markers highlight potential mean reversion points when price crosses the outer bounds of the bands.
🔵 FEATURES
Forecast Engine : Uses linear regression to project Bollinger Band movement into the future.
Dynamic Channel Width : Adapts standard deviation and slope for realistic volatility modeling.
Auto-Labeled Levels : Displays live upper and lower forecast values for quick reference.
Cross Signals : Marks potential overbought and oversold zones with ▲/▼ signals when price exits the band.
Trend-Adaptive Basis Color : Basis line automatically switches color to represent short-term trend direction.
Customizable Colors and Widths for complete visual control.
🔵 HOW TO USE
Apply the indicator to visualize both current Bollinger structure and its forward projection.
Use ▲/▼ breakout markers to identify short-term reversals or volatility shifts.
When price consistently rides the upper band forecast, the trend is strong and likely continuing.
When regression shows narrowing bands ahead, expect a volatility contraction or consolidation period.
For range traders, outer projected bands can be used as potential mean reversion entry points .
Combine with volume or momentum filters to confirm whether breakouts are genuine or fading.
🔵 CONCLUSION
Bollinger Bands Regression Forecast transforms classic Bollinger analysis into a predictive forecasting model .
By merging volatility dynamics with regression-based extrapolation, it provides traders with a forward-looking visualization of likely price boundaries — revealing not only where volatility is but also where it’s heading next.
Power Balance ForecasterHey trader buddy! Remember the old IBM 5150 on Wall Street back in the 80s? :) Well, I wanted to pay tribute to it with this retro-style code when MS DOS and CRT screens were the cutting edge of technology...
Analysis of the balance of power between buyers and sellers with price predictions
What This Indicator Does
The Power Balance Forecaster indicator analyzes the relationship between buyer and seller strength to predict future price movements. Here's what it does in detail:
Main Features:
Power Balance Analysis: Calculates real-time percentage of buyer power vs seller power
Price Predictions: Estimates next closing level based on current momentum
Market State Detection: Identifies 5 different market conditions
Visual Signals: Shows directional arrows and price targets
How the Trading Logic Works
Power Balance Calculation:
Analyzes Consecutive Bars - Counts consecutive bullish and bearish bars
Calculates Momentum - Uses ATR-normalized momentum to measure trend strength
Determines Market State - Assigns one of 5 market states based on conditions
Market States:
Bull Control: Strong uptrend (75% buyer power)
Bear Control: Strong downtrend (75% seller power)
Buying Pressure: Bullish pressure (65% buyer power)
Selling Pressure: Bearish pressure (65% seller power)
Balance Area: Market in equilibrium (50/50)
Prediction System:
Bullish Condition: Buyer power > 55% + Positive momentum = Bullish prediction
Bearish Condition: Seller power > 55% + Negative momentum = Bearish prediction
Price Target: Based on ATR multiplied by timeframe factor
Configurable Parameters:
Analysis Sensitivity (5-50): Controls how responsive the indicator is
Low values (5-15): More sensitive, ideal for scalping
High values (30-50): More stable, ideal for swing trading
Table Position: Choose from 9 positions to display the data table
Trading Signals:
Green Triangle ▲: Bullish signal, price expected to increase
Green Triangle ▼: Bearish signal, price expected to decrease
Dashed Line: Shows the price target projection
Label: Displays the exact target value
Recommended Timeframes:
Lower Timeframes (1-15 minutes):
Sensitivity: 10-20
Automatic Low TF mode
Higher Timeframes (1 hour - 1 day):
Sensitivity: 25-40
Automatic High TF mode
Important Notes:
Always use this indicator in combination with:
Market context analysis
Proper risk management
Confirmation from other indicators
Mandatory stop losses
The indicator works best in trending markets and may be less effective during extreme consolidation periods.
AI MEDEA FORECASTAI MEDEA searches for similar historical patterns and uses them to generate predictions. The longer it runs, the more data it gathers and the better the predictions become.
Important:
The indicator must remain enabled to:
- Collect predictions and check their accuracy
- Have as much data as possible for comparison
- Provide more accurate results
Recommendation:
Let the indicator run for several days on different timeframes (15m, 30m, 1H, 4H). The accuracy table will show the actual accuracy only after gathering enough predictions.
Holt Damped Forecast [CHE]A Friendly Note on These Pine Script Scripts
Hey there! Just wanted to share a quick, heartfelt heads-up: All these Pine Script examples come straight from my own self-study adventures as a total autodidact—think late nights tinkering and learning on my own. They're purely for educational vibes, helping me (and hopefully you!) get the hang of Pine Script basics, cool indicators, and building simple strategies.
That said, please know this isn't any kind of financial advice, investment nudge, or pro-level trading blueprint. I'd love for you to dive in with your own research, run those backtests like a champ, and maybe bounce ideas off a qualified expert before trying anything in a real trading setup. No guarantees here on performance or spot-on accuracy—trading's got its risks, and those are totally on each of us.
Let's keep it fun and educational—happy coding! 😊
Holt Damped Forecast — Damped trend forecasts with fan bands for uncertainty visualization and momentum integration
Summary
This indicator applies damped exponential smoothing to generate forward price forecasts, displaying them as probabilistic fan bands to highlight potential ranges rather than point estimates. It incorporates residual-based uncertainty to make projections more reliable in varying market conditions, reducing overconfidence in strong trends. Momentum from the trend component is shown in an optional label alongside signals, aiding quick assessment of direction and strength without relying on lagging oscillators.
Motivation: Why this design?
Standard exponential smoothing often extrapolates trends indefinitely, leading to unrealistic forecasts during mean reversion or weakening momentum. This design uses damping to gradually flatten long-term projections, better suiting real markets where trends fade. It addresses the need for visual uncertainty in forecasts, helping traders avoid entries based on overly optimistic point predictions.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
- Reference baseline: Diverges from basic Holt's linear exponential smoothing, which assumes persistent trends without decay.
- Architecture differences:
- Adds damping to the trend extrapolation for finite-horizon realism.
- Builds fan bands from historical residuals for probabilistic ranges at multiple confidence levels.
- Integrates a dynamic label combining forecast details, scaled momentum, and directional signals.
- Applies tail background coloring to recent bars based on forecast direction for immediate visual cues.
- Practical effect: Charts show converging forecast bands over time, emphasizing shorter horizons where accuracy is higher. This visibly tempers aggressive projections in trends, making it easier to spot when uncertainty widens, which signals potential reversals or consolidation.
How it works (technical)
The indicator maintains two persistent components: a level tracking the current price baseline and a trend capturing directional slope. On each bar, the level updates by blending the current source price with a one-step-ahead expectation from the prior level and damped trend. The trend then adjusts by weighting the change in level against the prior damped trend. Forecasts extend this forward over a user-defined number of steps, with damping ensuring the trend influence diminishes over distance.
Uncertainty derives from the standard deviation of historical residuals—the differences between actual prices and one-step expectations—scaled by the damping structure for the forecast horizon. Bands form around the median forecast at specified confidence intervals using these scaled errors. Initialization seeds the level to the first bar's price and trend to zero, with persistence handling subsequent updates. A security call fetches the last bar index for tail logic, using lookahead to align with realtime but introducing minor repaint on unconfirmed bars.
Parameter Guide
The Source parameter selects the price input for level and residual calculations, defaulting to close; consider using high or low for assets sensitive to volatility, as close works well for most trend-following setups. Forecast Steps (h) defines the number of bars ahead for projections, defaulting to 4—shorter values like 1 to 5 suit intraday trading, while longer ones may widen bands excessively in choppy conditions. The Color Scheme (2025 Trends) option sets the base, up, and down colors for bands, labels, and backgrounds, starting with Ruby Dawn; opt for serene schemes on clean charts or vibrant ones to stand out in dark themes.
Level Smoothing α controls the responsiveness of the price baseline, defaulting to 0.3—values above 0.5 enhance tracking in fast markets but may amplify noise, whereas lower settings filter disturbances better. Trend Smoothing β adjusts sensitivity to slope changes, at 0.1 by default; increasing to 0.2 helps detect emerging shifts quicker, but keeping it low prevents whipsaws in sideways action. Damping φ (0..1) governs trend persistence, defaulting to 0.8—near 0.9 preserves carryover in sustained moves, while closer to 0.5 curbs overextensions more aggressively.
Show Fan Bands (50/75/95) toggles the probabilistic range display, enabled by default; disable it in oscillator panes to reduce clutter, but it's key for overlay forecasts. Residual Window (Bars) sets the length for deviation estimates, at 400 bars initially—100 to 200 works for short timeframes, and 500 or more adds stability over extended histories. Line Width determines the thickness of band and median lines, defaulting to 2; go thicker at 3 to 5 for emphasis on higher timeframes or thinner for layered indicators.
Show Median/Forecast Line reveals the central projection, on by default—hide if bands provide enough detail, or keep for pinpoint entry references. Show Integrated Label activates the combined view of forecast, momentum, and signal, defaulting to true; it's right-aligned for convenience, so turn it off on smaller screens to save space. Show Tail Background colors the last few bars by forecast direction, enabled initially; pair low transparency for subtle hints or higher for bolder emphasis.
Tail Length (Bars) specifies bars to color backward from the current one, at 3 by default—1 to 2 fits scalping, while 5 or more underscores building momentum. Tail Transparency (%) fades the background intensity, starting at 80; 50 to 70 delivers strong signals, and 90 or above allows seamless blending. Include Momentum in Label adds the scaled trend value, defaulting to true—ATR% scaling here offers relative strength context across assets.
Include Long/Short/Neutral Signal in Label displays direction from the trend sign, on by default; neutral helps in ranging markets, though it can be overlooked during strong trends. Scaling normalizes momentum output (raw, ATR-relative, or level-relative), set to ATR% initially—ATR% ensures cross-asset comparability, while %Level provides percentage perspectives. ATR Length defines the period for true range averaging in scaling, at 14; align it with your chart timeframe or shorten for quicker volatility responses.
Decimals sets precision in the momentum label, defaulting to 2—0 to 1 yields clean integers, and 3 or more suits detailed forex views. Show Zero-Cross Markers places arrows at direction changes, enabled by default; keep size small to minimize clutter, with text labels for fast scanning.
Reading & Interpretation
Fan bands expand outward from the current bar, with the median line as the central forecast—narrower bands indicate lower uncertainty, wider suggest caution. Colors tint up (positive forecast vs. prior level) in the scheme's up hue and down otherwise. The optional label lists the horizon, median, and range brackets at 50%, 75%, and 95% levels, followed by momentum (scaled per mode) and signal (Long if positive trend, Short if negative, Neutral if zero). Zero-cross arrows mark trend flips: upward triangle below bar for bullish cross, downward above for bearish. Tail background reinforces the forecast direction on recent bars.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
- Trend following: Enter long on upward zero-cross if median forecast rises above price and bands contain it; confirm with higher highs/lows. Short on downward cross with falling median.
- Exits/Stops: Trail stops below 50% lower band in longs; exit if momentum drifts negative or signal turns neutral. Use wider bands (75/95%) for conservative holds in volatile regimes.
- Multi-asset/Multi-TF: Defaults work across stocks, forex, crypto on 5m-1D; scale steps by TF (e.g., 10+ on daily). Layer with volume or structure tools—avoid over-reliance on isolated crosses.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Closed-bar logic ensures stable historical plots, but realtime updates via security lookahead may shift forecasts until bar confirmation, introducing minor repaint on the last bar. No explicit HTF calls beyond bar index fetch, minimizing gaps but watch for low-liquidity assets. Resources include a 2000-bar lookback for residuals and up to 500 labels, with no loops—efficient for most charts. Known limits: Early bars show wide bands due to sparse residuals; assumes stationary errors, so gaps or regime shifts widen inaccuracies.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Start with defaults for balanced smoothing on 15m-4H charts. For choppy conditions (too many crosses), lower β to 0.05 and raise residual window to 600 for stability. In trending markets (sluggish signals), increase α/β to 0.4/0.2 and shorten steps to 2. If bands overexpand, boost φ toward 0.95 to preserve trend carry. Tune colors for theme fit without altering logic.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This is a visualization and signal layer for damped forecasts and momentum, complementing price action analysis. It isn’t a standalone system—pair with risk rules and broader context. Not predictive beyond the horizon; use for confirmation, not blind entries.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Volume Surprise [LuxAlgo]The Volume Surprise tool displays the trading volume alongside the expected volume at that time, allowing users to spot unexpected trading activity on the chart easily.
The tool includes an extrapolation of the estimated volume for future periods, allowing forecasting future trading activity.
🔶 USAGE
We define Volume Surprise as a situation where the actual trading volume deviates significantly from its expected value at a given time.
Being able to determine if trading activity is higher or lower than expected allows us to precisely gauge the interest of market participants in specific trends.
A histogram constructed from the difference between the volume and expected volume is provided to easily highlight the difference between the two and may be used as a standalone.
The tool can also help quantify the impact of specific market events, such as news about an instrument. For example, an important announcement leading to volume below expectations might be a sign of market participants underestimating the impact of the announcement.
Like in the example above, it is possible to observe cases where the volume significantly differs from the expected one, which might be interpreted as an anomaly leading to a correction.
🔹 Detecting Rare Trading Activity
Expected volume is defined as the mean (or median if we want to limit the impact of outliers) of the volume grouped at a specific point in time. This value depends on grouping volume based on periods, which can be user-defined.
However, it is possible to adjust the indicator to overestimate/underestimate expected volume, allowing for highlighting excessively high or low volume at specific times.
In order to do this, select "Percentiles" as the summary method, and change the percentiles value to a value that is close to 100 (overestimate expected volume) or to 0 (underestimate expected volume).
In the example above, we are only interested in detecting volume that is excessively high, we use the 95th percentile to do so, effectively highlighting when volume is higher than 95% of the volumes recorded at that time.
🔶 DETAILS
🔹 Choosing the Right Periods
Our expected volume value depends on grouping volume based on periods, which can be user-defined.
For example, if only the hourly period is selected, volumes are grouped by their respective hours. As such, to get the expected volume for the hour 7 PM, we collect and group the historical volumes that occurred at 7 PM and average them to get our expected value at that time.
Users are not limited to selecting a single period, and can group volume using a combination of all the available periods.
Do note that when on lower timeframes, only having higher periods will lead to less precise expected values. Enabling periods that are too low might prevent grouping. Finally, enabling a lot of periods will, on the other hand, lead to a lot of groups, preventing the ability to get effective expected values.
In order to avoid changing periods by navigating across multiple timeframes, an "Auto Selection" setting is provided.
🔹 Group Length
The length setting allows controlling the maximum size of a volume group. Using higher lengths will provide an expected value on more historical data, further highlighting recurring patterns.
🔹 Recommended Assets
Obtaining the expected volume for a specific period (time of the day, day of the week, quarter, etc) is most effective when on assets showing higher signs of periodicity in their trading activity.
This is visible on stocks, futures, and forex pairs, which tend to have a defined, recognizable interval with usually higher trading activity.
Assets such as cryptocurrencies will usually not have a clearly defined periodic trading activity, which lowers the validity of forecasts produced by the tool, as well as any conclusions originating from the volume to expected volume comparisons.
🔶 SETTINGS
Length: Maximum number of records in a volume group for a specific period. Older values are discarded.
Smooth: Period of a SMA used to smooth volume. The smoothing affects the expected value.
🔹 Periods
Auto Selection: Automatically choose a practical combination of periods based on the chart timeframe.
Custom periods can be used if disabling "Auto Selection". Available periods include:
- Minutes
- Hours
- Days (can be: Day of Week, Day of Month, Day of Year)
- Months
- Quarters
🔹 Summary
Method: Method used to obtain the expected value. Options include Mean (default) or Percentile.
Percentile: Percentile number used if "Method" is set to "Percentile". A value of 50 will effectively use a median for the expected value.
🔹 Forecast
Forecast Window: Number of bars ahead for which the expected volume is predicted.
Style: Style settings of the forecast.
Cyclical Phases of the Market🧭 Overview
“Cyclical Phases of the Market” automatically detects major market cycles by connecting swing lows and measuring the average number of bars between them.
Once it learns the rhythm of past cycles, it projects the next expected cycle (in time and price) using a dashed orange line and a forecast label.
In simple terms:
The indicator shows where the next potential low is statistically expected to occur, based on the timing and depth of previous cycles.
⚙️ Core Logic – Step by Step
1️⃣ Pivot Detection
The script uses the built-in ta.pivotlow() and ta.pivothigh() functions to find local turning points:
pivotLow marks a local swing low, defined by pivotLeft and pivotRight bars on each side.
Only confirmed lows are used to define the major cycle points.
Each new pivot low is stored in two arrays:
cycleLows → price level of the low
cycleBars → bar index where the low occurred
2️⃣ Cycle Identification and Drawing
Every time two consecutive swing lows are found, the indicator:
Calculates the number of bars between them (cycle length).
If that distance is greater than or equal to minCycleBars, it draws a teal line connecting the two lows — visually representing one complete cycle.
These teal lines form the historical cycle structure of the market.
3️⃣ Average Cycle Length
Once there are at least three completed cycles, the script calculates the average duration (mean number of bars between lows).
This value — avgCycleLength — represents the dominant periodicity or cycle rhythm of the market.
4️⃣ Forecasting the Next Cycle
When a valid average cycle length exists, the model projects the next expected cycle:
Time projection:
Adds avgCycleLength to the last cycle’s ending bar index to find where the next low should occur.
Price projection:
Estimates the vertical amplitude by taking the difference between the last two cycle lows (priceDiff).
Adds this same difference to the last low price to forecast the next probable low level.
The result is drawn as an orange dashed line extending into the future, representing the Next Expected Cycle.
5️⃣ Forecast Label
An orange label 🔮 appears at the projected future point showing:
Text:
🔮 Upcoming Cycle Forecast
Price:
The label marks the probable area and timing of the next cyclical low.
(Note: the date/time calculation currently multiplies bar count by 7 days, so it’s designed mainly for daily charts. On other timeframes, that conversion can be adapted.)
📊 How to Read It on the Chart
Visual Element Meaning Interpretation
Teal lines Completed historical cycles (low to low) Show actual periodic rhythm of the market
Orange dashed line Projection of the next expected cycle Anticipated path toward the next cyclical low
Orange label 🔮 Upcoming Cycle Forecast Displays expected price and bar location
Average cycle length Internal variable (bars between lows) Represents the dominant cycle period
📈 Interpretation
When teal segments show consistent spacing, the market is following a stable rhythm → cycles are predictable.
When cycle spacing shortens, the market is accelerating (volatility rising).
When it widens, the market is slowing down or entering accumulation.
The orange dashed line represents the next expected low zone:
If the market drops near this line → cyclical pattern confirmed.
If the market breaks well below → cycle amplitude has increased (trend weakening).
If the market rises above and delays → a new longer cycle may be forming.
🧠 Practical Use
Combine with oscillators (e.g., RSI or TSI) to confirm momentum alignment near projected lows.
Use in conjunction with volume to identify accumulation or exhaustion near the expected turning point.
Compare across timeframes: weekly cycles confirm long-term rhythm; daily cycles refine short-term entries.
⚡ Summary
Aspect Description
Purpose Detect and forecast recurring market cycles
Cycle basis Low-to-Low pivot analysis
Visuals Teal historical cycles + Orange forecast line
Forecast Next expected low (price and time)
Ideal timeframe Daily
Main outputs Average cycle length, next projected cycle, visual cycle map
Statistical Projection over N Days (drift + σ) – v1.2 [EN]🧭 Overview
“Statistical Projection over N Days (drift + σ)” is a quantitative forecasting model that estimates the expected future price range of any asset over a chosen horizon (default = 10 days).
It combines average drift (trend direction) and historical volatility (σ) to produce a probabilistic cone of future price movement.
The indicator displays:
a blue dashed line (expected price path),
1σ / 2σ deviation bands (volatility envelopes),
and a summary table with the key forecast values and expected return.
⚙️ Core Logic (Explained Simply)
The indicator analyses recent price behavior to estimate two key elements:
the average daily tendency of the market (called drift), and
the average daily variability (called volatility).
Here’s how it works, step by step:
Measures daily percentage changes (using logarithmic returns) to understand how much the price typically moves from one bar to the next.
It then calculates the average of those returns over a chosen historical window (for example, 70 bars).
If the average is positive → the market has a rising tendency (upward drift).
If the average is negative → the market tends to decline (downward drift).
At the same time, it computes the standard deviation of those returns — this shows how “wide” the movements are, i.e. how volatile the asset is.
Using these two measures — drift and volatility — it estimates where the price is statistically expected to move over the next N bars:
The mean projection (blue dashed line) represents the most likely price path.
The 1σ and 2σ lines (teal and gray) define confidence zones, where price is expected to remain about 68% and 95% of the time, respectively.
The model updates continuously with every new bar, recalculating both drift and volatility, so the projection cone expands, contracts, or changes direction depending on the latest market behavior.
📉 Interpretation of the Blue Line
The blue dashed line (pMean) is the statistical forecast path of price over the next N bars.
🔹 When the blue line is below the current price
The recent drift (average log return) is negative → the model expects a gradual decline.
Interpretation:
The prevailing statistical bias is bearish — the market is expected to move lower toward equilibrium.
🔹 When the blue line is above the current price
The recent drift is positive → the model expects a continued rise.
Interpretation:
The price is statistically likely to trend upward, maintaining momentum in the direction of the current drift.
🔹 When the blue line is sloping upward
The mean projection pMean is rising with each new bar.
Indicates positive drift → the average daily return is positive.
Interpretation:
The asset is in a growth phase; volatility bands act as potential expansion corridors.
🔹 When the blue line is sloping downward
The mean projection pMean decreases bar after bar.
Indicates negative drift → average daily return is negative.
Interpretation:
The asset is in a corrective or declining phase, with volatility determining potential drawdown limits.
🔹 When the blue line is flat
The drift (μ) is approximately zero.
Interpretation:
The model sees no directional bias; price equilibrium dominates.
Expect a sideways range unless new volatility (σ) expansion occurs.
📈 How to Read the Entire Projection
Blue dashed line → expected mean path (most probable price trajectory).
Teal lines (±1σ) → statistically normal range (≈68% of future outcomes).
Gray lines (±2σ) → extreme bounds (≈95% of outcomes).
Labels on the right show exact forecast prices for each band.
If the actual price moves outside the gray 2σ range →
→ it signals volatility breakout or regime shift, meaning the past volatility no longer explains the present movement.
🧮 Summary Table
Located at the top-right corner, it provides:
Field Description
Projection (days) Number of bars used for projection (h).
Anchor price Starting close used for forecast.
Mean target (h) Expected price after h bars (blue line endpoint).
1σ Band (↓ / ↑) 68% confidence interval.
2σ Band (↓ / ↑) 95% confidence interval.
Expected return Projected % change from current close to mean target.
Colors can be customized — for example:
white headers,
aqua for anchor price,
lime for target,
orange/red for σ bands,
yellow for expected return.
🧠 Practical Meaning
Blue Line State Interpretation Bias
Above price, rising Ongoing positive drift Bullish
Below price, falling Negative drift Bearish
Flat, near price Neutral drift Sideways
Steep slope Strong directional momentum Trend confirmation
Price > +2σ band Excess volatility / overextension Possible correction
Price < −2σ band Undervaluation or panic Reversion likely
⚡ Summary
Aspect Description
Purpose Statistical forecast of expected price range
Method Drift (μ) + Volatility (σ) from log returns
Outputs Mean projection (blue), 1σ & 2σ bands, expected return
Interpretation Directional bias from blue line and its slope
Recommended timeframe Daily
Best use Trend confirmation, probabilistic target estimation, volatility analysis.
Markov Chain Regime & Next‑Bar Probability Forecast✨ What it is
A regime-aware, math-driven panel that forecasts the odds for the very next candle. It shows:
• P(next r > 0)
• P(next r > +θ)
• P(next r < −θ)
• A 4-bucket split of next-bar outcomes (>+θ | 0..+θ | −θ..0 | <−θ)
• Next-regime probabilities: Calm | Neutral | Volatile
🧠 Why the math is strong
• Markov regimes: Markets cluster in volatility “moods.” We learn a 3-state regime S∈{Calm, Neutral, Volatile} with a transition matrix A, where A = P(Sₜ₊₁=j | Sₜ=i).
• Condition on the future state: We estimate event odds given the next regime j—
q_pos(j)=P(rₜ₊₁>0 | Sₜ₊₁=j), q_gt(j)=P(rₜ₊₁>+θ | Sₜ₊₁=j), q_lt(j)=P(rₜ₊₁<−θ | Sₜ₊₁=j)—
and mix them with transitions from the current (or frozen) state sNow:
P(event) = Σⱼ A · q(event | j).
This mixture-of-regimes view (HMM-style one-step prediction) ties next-bar outcomes to where volatility is likely headed.
• Statistical hygiene: Laplace/Beta smoothing, minimum-sample gating, and unconditional fallbacks keep estimates stable. Heavy computations run on confirmed bars; “Freeze at close” avoids intrabar flicker.
📊 What each value means
• Regime label & background: 🟩 Calm, 🟧 Neutral, 🟥 Volatile — quick read of market context.
• P(next r > 0): Directional tilt for the very next bar.
• P(next r > +θ): Odds of an outsized positive move beyond θ.
• P(next r < −θ): Odds of an outsized negative move beyond −θ.
• Partition row: Distributes next-bar probability across four intuitive buckets; they ≈ sum to 100%.
• Next Regime Probs: Likelihood of switching to Calm/Neutral/Volatile on the next bar (row of A for the current/frozen state).
• Samples row: How many next-bar samples support each next-state estimate (a confidence cue).
• Smoothing α: The Laplace prior used to stabilize binary event rates.
⚙️ Inputs you control
• Returns: Log (default) or %
• Include Volume (z-score) + lookback
• Include Range (HL/PrevClose)
• Rolling window N (transitions & estimates)
• θ as percent (e.g., 0.5%)
• Freeze forecast at last close (recommended)
• Display toggles (plots, partition, samples)
🎯 How to use it
• Volatility awareness & sizing: Rising P(next regime = Volatile) → consider smaller size, wider stops, or skipping marginal entries.
• Breakout preparation: Elevated P(next r > +θ) highlights environments where range expansion is more likely; pair with your setup/trigger.
• Defense for mean-reversion: If P(next r < −θ) lifts while you’re late long (or P(next r > +θ) lifts while late short), tighten risk or wait for better context.
• Calibration tip: Start θ near your market’s typical bar size; adjust until “>+θ” flags truly meaningful moves for your timeframe.
📝 Method notes & limits
Activity features (|r|, volume z, range) are standardized; only positive z’s feed the composite activity score. Estimates adapt to instrument/timeframe; rare regimes or small windows increase variance (hence smoothing, sample gating, fallbacks). This is a context/forecast tool, not a standalone signal—combine with your entry/exit rules and risk management.
🧩 Strategies too
We also develop full strategy versions that use these probabilities for entries, filters, and position sizing. Like this publication if you’d like us to release the strategy edition next.
⚠️ Disclaimer
Educational use only. Not financial advice. Markets involve risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Machine Learning Price Predictor: Ridge AR [Bitwardex]🔹Machine Learning Price Predictor: Ridge AR is a research-oriented indicator demonstrating the use of Regularized AutoRegression (Ridge AR) for short-term price forecasting.
The model combines autoregressive structure with Ridge regularization , providing stability under noisy or volatile market conditions.
The latest version introduces Bull and Bear signals , visually representing the current momentum phase and model direction directly on the chart.
Unlike traditional linear regression, Ridge AR minimizes overfitting, stabilizes coefficient dynamics, and enhances predictive consistency in correlated datasets.
The script plots:
Fit Line — in-sample fitted data;
Forecast Line — out-of-sample projection;
Trend Segments — color-coded bullish/bearish sections;
Bull/Bear Labels 🐂🐻 — dynamic visual signals showing directional bias.
Designed for researchers, students, and developers, this tool helps explore regularized time-series forecasting in Pine Script™.
🧩 Ridge AR Settings
Training Window — number of bars used for model training;
Forecast Horizon — forecast length (bars ahead);
AR Order — number of lags used as features;
Ridge Strength (λ) — regularization coefficient;
Damping Factor — exponential trend decay rate;
Trend Length — period for trend/volatility estimation;
Momentum Weight — strength of the recent move;
Mean Reversion — pullback intensity toward the mean.
🧮 Data Processing
Prefilter:
None — raw close price;
EMA — exponential smoothing;
SuperSmoother — Ehlers filter for noise reduction.
EMA Length, SuperSmoother Length — smoothing parameters.
🖥️ Display Settings
Update Mode:
Lock — static model;
Update Once Reached — rebuild after forecast horizon;
Continuous — update every bar.
Forecast Color — projection line color;
Bullish/Bearish Colors — colors for trend segments.
🐂🐻 Bull/Bear Signal System
The Bull/Bear Signal System adds directional visual cues to highlight local momentum shifts and model-based trend confirmation.
Bull (🐂) — appears when upward momentum is confirmed (momentum > 0) .
Displayed below the bar, colored with Bullish Color.
Bear (🐻) — appears when downward momentum is dominant (momentum < 0) .
Displayed above the bar, colored with Bearish Color.
Signals are generated during model recalculations or when the directional bias changes in Continuous mode.
These visual markers are analytical aids , not trading triggers.
🧠 Core Algorithmic Components
Regularized AutoRegression (Ridge AR):
Solves: (X′X+λI)−1X′y
to derive stable regression coefficients.
Matrix and Pseudoinverse Operations — implemented natively in Pine Script™.
Prefiltering (EMA / Ehlers SuperSmoother) — stabilizes noisy data.
Forecast Dynamics — integrates damping, momentum, and mean reversion.
Trend Visualization — color-coded bullish/bearish line segments.
Bull/Bear Signal Engine — visualizes real-time impulse direction.
📊 Applications
Academic and educational purposes;
Demonstration of Ridge Regression and AR models;
Analysis of bull/bear market phase transitions;
Visualization of time-series dependencies.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational and research purposes only.
It does not provide trading or investment advice.
The author assumes no liability for financial losses resulting from its use.
Use responsibly and at your own risk.
KAMENICZKI PROSCAPLERPROSCAPLER is an advanced trading indicator that combines a dynamic channel with a prediction line for maximum accuracy and trading success. The indicator is designed for professional traders who need reliable signals with high success rates.
Adaptive Intelligence
Automatic optimal period detection - the indicator adapts to various market conditions
Intelligent timeframe settings - automatically optimizes periods based on TF
Dynamic adaptation - the channel changes according to volatility and trend.
High Signal Accuracy
Pearson R correlation - filters only strong trends with high reliability
Multi-timeframe confirmation - confirms signals on higher timeframe
Volatility and volume filters - eliminates false signals
RSI extreme values - captures only the best entry points
Prediction Line
Future price direction - shows where the price will move
Adaptive length - adapts to timeframe
Strong signals - when the entire prediction line is in the center of the channel
Quality Filters
Minimum Pearson R 0.5+ - only strong trends
Volume filter 1.2x - only signals with sufficient volume
ATR volatility filter - eliminates low volatility
RSI extreme levels - only at oversold/overbought values
Anomalies
Anomaly detection - captures exceptional opportunities
Bright yellow/pink color - immediately visible
Fast Reaction
Minimum trend bars = 1 - fast turning
Adaptive detection - immediate reaction to changes
Automatic optimizations - without manual settings
News & Volatility Filters
News filter - disables channel during high impact news
Volatility filter - protects against high volatility
Gap detection - filters dangerous gaps
Combined Filters
All filters must be met - maximum reliability
Multi-timeframe confirmation - double check
Pearson R validation - mathematical accuracy
Volume confirmation - institutional interest
Reaction Speed
Instant signals - without delay
Adaptive settings - automatic optimization
Fast turning - minimum 1 bar trend
Signal Accuracy
Quality filters increase success rate to 70-80%
Anomalies have 80-90% success rate
STRONG signals (prediction line in center) 85-95%
HAVE FUN :)
Foresight Cone (HoltxF1xVWAP) [KedArc Quant]Description:
This is a time-series forecasting indicator that estimates the next bar (F1) and projects a path a few bars ahead. It also draws a confidence cone based on how accurate the recent forecasts have been. You can optionally color the projection only when price agrees with VWAP.
Why it’s different
* One clear model: Everything comes from Holt’s trend-aware forecasting method—no mix of unrelated indicators.
* Transparent visuals: You see the next-bar estimate (F1), the forward projection, and a cone that widens or narrows based on recent forecast error.
* Context, not signals: The VWAP option only changes colors. It doesn’t add trade rules.
* No look-ahead: Accuracy is measured using the forecast made on the previous bar versus the current bar.
Inputs (what they mean)
* Source: Price series to forecast (default: Close).
* Preset: Quick profiles for fast, smooth, or momentum markets (see below).
* Alpha (Level): How fast the model reacts to new prices. Higher = faster, twitchier.
* Beta (Trend): How fast the model updates the slope. Higher = faster pivots, more flips in chop.
* Horizon: How many bars ahead to project. Bigger = wider cone.
* Residual Window: How many bars to judge recent accuracy. Bigger = steadier cone.
* Confidence Z: How wide the cone should be (typical setting ≈ “95% style” width).
* Show Bands / Draw Forward Path: Turn the cone and forward lines on/off.
* Color only when aligned with VWAP: Highlights projections only when price agrees with the trend side of VWAP.
* Colors / Show Panel: Styling plus a small panel with RMSE, MAPE, and trend slope.
Presets (when to pick which)
* Scalp / Fast (1-min): Very responsive; best for quick moves. More twitch in chop.
* Smooth Intraday (1–5 min): Calmer and steadier; a good default most days.
* Momentum / Breakout: Quicker slope tracking during strong pushes; may over-react in ranges.
* Custom: Set your own values if you know exactly what you want.
What is F1 here?
F1 is the model’s next-bar fair value. Crosses of price versus F1 can hint at short-term momentum shifts or mean-reversion, especially when viewed with VWAP or the cone.
How this helps
* Gives a baseline path of where price may drift and a cone that shows normal wiggle room.
* Helps you tell routine noise (inside cone) from information (edges or breaks outside the cone).
* Keeps you aware of short-term bias via the trend slope and F1.
How to use (step by step)
1. Add to chart → choose a Preset (start with Smooth Intraday).
2. Set Horizon around 8–15 bars for intraday.
3. (Optional) Turn on VWAP alignment to color only when price agrees with the trend side of VWAP.
4. Watch where price sits relative to the cone and F1:
* Inside = normal noise.
* At edges = stretched.
* Outside = possible regime change.
5. Check the panel: if RMSE/MAPE spike, expect a wider cone; consider a smoother preset or a higher timeframe.
6. Tweak Alpha/Beta only if needed: faster for momentum, slower for chop.
7. Combine with your own plan for entries, exits, and risk.
Accuracy Panel — what it tells you
Preset & Horizon: Shows which preset you’re using and how many bars ahead the projection goes. Longer horizons mean more uncertainty.
RMSE (error in price units): A “typical miss” measured in the chart’s currency (e.g., ₹).
Lower = tighter fit and a usually narrower cone. Rising = conditions getting noisier; the cone will widen.
MAPE (error in %): The same idea as RMSE but in percent.
Good for comparing different symbols or timeframes. Sudden spikes often hint at a regime change.
Slope T: The model’s short-term trend reading.
Positive = gentle up-bias; negative = gentle down-bias; near zero = mostly flat/drifty.
How to read it at a glance
Calm & directional: RMSE/MAPE steady or falling + Slope T positive (or negative) → trends tend to respect the cone’s mid/upper (or mid/lower) area.
Choppy/uncertain: RMSE/MAPE climbing or jumping → expect more whipsaw; rely more on the cone edges and higher-TF context.
Flat tape: Slope T near zero → mean-revert behavior is common; treat cone edges as stretch zones rather than breakout zones.
Warm-up & tweaks
Warm-up: Right after adding the indicator, the panel may be blank for a short time while it gathers enough bars.
Too twitchy? Switch to Smooth Intraday or increase the Residual Window.
Too slow? Use Scalp/Fast or Momentum/Breakout to react quicker.
Timeframe tips
* 1–3 min: Scalp/Fast or Momentum/Breakout; horizon \~8–12.
* 5–15 min: Smooth Intraday; horizon \~12–15.
* 30–60 min+: Consider a larger residual window for a steadier cone.
FAQ
Q: Is this a strategy or an indicator?
A: It’s an indicator only. It does not place orders, TP/SL, or run backtests.
Q: Does it repaint?
A: The next-bar estimate (F1) and the cone are calculated using only information available at that time. The forward path is a projection drawn on the last bar and will naturally update as new bars arrive. Historical bars aren’t revised with future data.
Q: What is F1?
A: F1 is the indicator’s best guess for the next bar.
Price crossing above/below F1 can hint at short-term momentum shifts or mean-reversion.
Q: What do “Alpha” and “Beta” do?
A: Alpha controls how fast the indicator reacts to new prices
(higher = faster, twitchier). Beta controls how fast the slope updates (higher = quicker pivots, more flips in chop).
Q: Why does the cone width change?
A: It reflects recent forecast accuracy. When the market gets noisy, the cone widens. When the tape is calm, it narrows.
Q: What does the Accuracy Panel tell me?
A:
* Preset & Horizon you’re using.
* RMSE: typical forecast miss in price units.
* MAPE: typical forecast miss in percent.
* Slope T: short-term trend reading (up, down, or flat).
If RMSE/MAPE rise, expect a wider cone and more whipsaw.
Q: The panel shows “…” or looks empty. Why?
A: It needs a short warm-up to gather enough bars. This is normal after you add the indicator or change settings/timeframes.
Q: Which timeframe is best?
A:
* 1–3 min: Scalp/Fast or Momentum/Breakout, horizon \~8–12.
* 5–15 min: Smooth Intraday, horizon \~12–15.
Higher timeframes work too; consider a larger residual window for steadier cones.
Q: Which preset should I start with?
A: Start with Smooth Intraday. If the market is trending hard, try Momentum/Breakout.
For very quick tapes, use Scalp/Fast. Switch back if things get choppy.
Q: What does the VWAP option do?
A: It only changes colors (highlights when price agrees with the trend side of VWAP).
It does not add or remove signals.
Q: Are there alerts?
A: Yes—alerts for price crossing F1 (up/down). Use “Once per bar close” to reduce noise on fast charts.
Q: Can I use this on stocks, futures, crypto, or FX?
A: Yes. It works on any symbol/timeframe. You may want to adjust Horizon and the Residual Window based on volatility.
Q: Can I use it with Heikin Ashi or other non-standard bars?
A: You can, but remember you’re forecasting the synthetic series of those bars. For pure price behavior, use regular candles.
Q: The cone feels too wide/too narrow. What do I change?
A:
* Too wide: lower Alpha/Beta a bit or increase the Residual Window.
* Too narrow (misses moves): raise Alpha/Beta slightly or try Momentum/Breakout.
Q: Why do results change when I switch timeframe or symbol?
A: Different noise levels and trends. The accuracy stats reset per chart, so the cone adapts to each context.
Q: Any limits or gotchas?
A: Extremely large Horizon may hit TradingView’s line-object limits; reduce Horizon or turn
off extra visuals if needed. Big gaps or news spikes will widen errors—expect the cone to react.
Q: Can this predict exact future prices?
A: No. It provides a baseline path and context. Always combine with your own rules and risk management.
Glossary
* TS (Time Series): Data over time (prices).
* Holt’s Method: A forecasting approach that tracks a current level and a trend to predict the next bars.
* F1: The indicator’s best guess for the next bar.
* F(h): The projected value h bars ahead.
* VWAP: Volume-Weighted Average Price—used here for optional color alignment.
* RMSE: Typical forecast miss in price units (how far off, on average).
* MAPE: Typical forecast miss in percent (scale-free, easy to compare).
Notes & limitations
* The panel needs a short warm-up; stats may be blank at first.
* The cone reflects recent conditions; sudden volatility changes will widen it.
* This is a tool for context. It does not place trades and does not promise results.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Trading involves risk, and users should exercise caution and use proper risk management when applying this strategy.
Initial Balance Breakout Signals [LuxAlgo]The Initial Balance Breakout Signals help traders identify breakouts of the Initial Balance (IB) range.
The indicator includes automatic detection of IB or can use custom sessions, highlights top and bottom IB extensions, custom Fibonacci levels, and goes further with an IB forecast with two different modes.
🔶 USAGE
The initial balance is the price range made within the first hour of the trading session. It is an intraday concept based on the idea that high volume and volatility enter the market through institutional trading at the start of the session, setting the tone for the rest of the day.
The initial balance is useful for gauging market sentiment, or, in other words, the relationship between buyers and sellers.
Bullish sentiment: Price trades above the IB range.
Mixed sentiment: Price trades within the IB range.
Bearish sentiment: Price trades below the IB range.
The initial balance high and low are important levels that many traders use to gauge sentiment. There are two main ideas behind trading around the IB range.
IB Extreme Breakout: When the price breaks and holds the IB high or low, there is a high probability that the price will continue in that direction.
IB Extreme Rejection: When the price tries to break those levels but fails, there is a high probability that it will reach the opposite IB extreme.
This indicator is a complete Initial Balance toolset with custom sessions, breakout signals, IB extensions, Fibonacci retracements, and an IB forecast. All of these features will be explained in the following sections.
🔹 Custom Sessions and Signals
By default, sessions for Initial Balance and breakout signals are in Auto mode. This means that Initial Balance takes the first hour of the trading session and shows breakout signals for the rest of the session.
With this option, traders can use the tool for open range trading, making it highly versatile. The concept behind open range (OR) is the same as that of initial balance (IB), but in OR, the range is determined by the first minute, three or five minutes, or up to the first 30 minutes of the trading session.
As shown in the image above, the top chart uses the Auto feature for the IB and Breakouts sessions. The bottom chart has the Auto feature disabled to use custom sessions for both parameters. In this case, the first three minutes of the trading session are used, turning the tool into an Open Range trading indicator.
This chart shows another example of using custom sessions to display overnight NASDAQ futures sessions.
The left chart shows a custom session from the Tokyo open to the London open, and the right chart shows a custom session from the London open to the New York open.
The chart shows both the Asian and European sessions, their top and bottom extremes, and the breakout signals from those extremes.
🔹 Initial Balance Extensions
Traders can easily extend both extremes of the Initial Balance to display their preferred targets for breakouts. Enable or disable any of them and set the IB percentage to use for the extension.
As the chart shows, the percentage selected on the settings panel directly affects the displayed levels.
Setting 25 means the tool will use a quarter of the detected initial balance range for extensions beyond the IB extremes. Setting 100 means the full IB range will be used.
Traders can use these extensions as targets for breakout signals.
🔹 Fibonacci Levels
Traders can display default or custom Fibonacci levels on the IB range to trade retracements and assess the strength of market movements. Each level can be enabled or disabled and customized by level, color, and line style.
As we can see on the chart, after the IB was completed, prices were unable to fall below the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This indicates significant bullish pressure, so it is expected that prices will rise.
Traders can use these levels as guidelines to assess the strength of the side trying to penetrate the IB. In this case, the sellers were unable to move the market beyond the first level.
🔹 Initial Balance Forecast
The tool features two different forecasting methods for the current IB. By default, it takes the average of the last ten values and applies a multiplier of one.
IB Against Previous Open: averages the difference between IB extremes and the open of the previous session.
Filter by current day of the week: averages the difference between IB extremes and the open of the current session for the same day of the week.
This feature allows traders to see the difference between the current IB and the average of the last IBs. It makes it very easy to interpret: if the current IB is higher than the average, buyers are in control; if it is lower than the average, sellers are in control.
For example, on the left side of the chart, we can see that the last day was very bullish because the IB was completely above the forecasted value. This is the IB mean of the last ten trading days.
On the right, we can see that on Monday, September 15, the IB traded slightly higher but within the forecasted value of the IB mean of the last ten Mondays. In this case, it is within expectations.
🔶 SETTINGS
Display Last X IBs: Select how many IBs to display.
Initial Balance: Choose a custom session or enable the Auto feature.
Breakouts: Enable or disable breakouts. Choose custom session or enable the Auto feature.
🔹 Extensions
Top Extension: Enable or disable the top extension and choose the percentage of IB to use.
Bottom extension: Enable or disable the bottom extension and choose the percentage of IB to use.
🔹 Fibonacci Levels
Display Fibonacci: Enable or disable Fibonacci levels.
Reverse: Reverse Fibonacci levels.
Levels, Colors & Style
Display Labels: Enable or disable labels and choose text size.
🔹 Forecast
Display Forecast: Select the forecast method.
- IB Against Previous Open: Calculates the average difference between the IB high and low and the previous day's IB open price.
- Filter by Current Day of Week: Calculates the average difference between the IB high and low and the IB open price for the same day of the week.
Forecast Memory: The number of data points used to calculate the average.
Forecast Multiplier: This multiplier will be applied to the average. Bigger numbers will result in wider predicted ranges.
Forecast Colors: Choose from a variety of colors.
Forecast Style: Choose a line style.
🔹 Style
Initial Balance Colors
Extension Transparency: Choose the extension's transparency. 0 is solid, and 100 is fully transparent.
Implied Volatility RangeThe Implied Volatility Range is a forward-looking tool that transforms option market data into probability ranges for future prices. Based on the lognormal distribution of asset prices assumed in modern option pricing models, it converts the implied volatility curve into a volatility cone with dynamic labels that show the market’s expectations for the price distribution at a specific point in time. At the selected future date, it displays projected price levels and their percentage change from today’s close across 1, 2, and 3 standard deviation (σ) ranges:
1σ range = ~68.2% probability the price will remain within this range.
2σ range = ~95.4% probability the price will remain within this range.
3σ range = ~99.7% probability the price will remain within this range.
What makes this indicator especially useful is its ability to incorporate implied volatility skew. When only ATM IV (%) is entered, the indicator displays the standard Black–Scholes lognormal distribution. By adding High IV (%) and Low IV (%) values tied to strikes above and below the current price, the indicator interpolates between these inputs to approximate the implied volatility skew. This adjustment produces a market-implied probability distribution that indicates whether the option market is leaning bullish or bearish, based on the data entered in the menu:
ATM IV (%) = Implied volatility at the current spot price (at-the-money).
High IV (%) = Implied volatility at a strike above the current spot price.
High Strike = Strike price corresponding to the High IV input (OTM call).
Low IV (%) = Implied volatility at a strike below the current spot price.
Low Strike = Strike price corresponding to the Low IV input (OTM put).
Expiration (Day, Month, Year) = Option expiration date for the projection.
Once these inputs are entered, the indicator calculates implied probability ranges and, if both High IV and Low IV values are provided, adjusts for skew to approximate the option market’s distribution. If no implied volatility data is supplied, the indicator defaults to a lognormal distribution based on historical volatility, using past realized volatility over the same forward horizon. This keeps the tool functional even without implied volatility inputs, though in that case the output represents only an approximation of ATM IV, not the actual market view.
In summary, the Implied Volatility Range is a powerful tool that translates implied volatility inputs into a clear and practical estimate of the market’s expectations for future prices. It allows traders to visualize the probability of price ranges while also highlighting directional bias, a dimension often difficult to interpret from traditional implied volatility charts. It should be emphasized, however, that this tool reflects only the market’s expectations at a specific point in time, which may change as new information and trading activity reshape implied volatility.
Cyclic Reversal Engine [AlgoPoint]Overview
Most indicators focus on price and momentum, but they often ignore a critical third dimension: time. Markets move in rhythmic cycles of expansion and contraction, but these cycles are not fixed; they speed up in trending markets and slow down in choppy conditions.
The Cyclic Reversal Engine is an advanced analytical tool designed to decode this rhythm. Instead of relying on static, lagging formulas, this indicator learns from past market behavior to anticipate when the current trend is statistically likely to reach its exhaustion point, providing high-probability reversal signals.
It achieves this by combining a sophisticated time analysis with a robust price-action confirmation.
How It Works: The Core Logic
The indicator operates on a multi-stage process to identify potential turning points in the market.
1. Market Regime Analysis (The Brain): Before analyzing any cycles, the indicator first diagnoses the current "personality" of the market. Using a combination of the ADX, Choppiness Index, and RSI, it classifies the market into one of three primary regimes:
- Trending: Strong, directional movement.
- Ranging: Sideways, non-directional chop.
- Reversal: An over-extended state (overbought/oversold) where a turn is imminent.
2. Adaptive Cycle Learning (The "Machine Learning" Aspect): This is the indicator's smartest feature. It constantly analyzes past cycles by measuring the bar-count between significant swing highs and swing lows. Crucially, it learns the average cycle duration for each specific market regime. For example, it learns that "in a strong trending market, a new swing low tends to occur every 35 bars," while "in a ranging market, this extends to 60 bars."
3. The Countdown & Timing Signal: The indicator identifies the last major swing high or low and starts a bar-by-bar countdown. Based on the current market regime, it selects the appropriate learned cycle length from its memory. When the bar count approaches this adaptive target, the indicator determines that a reversal is "due" from a timing perspective.
4. Price Confirmation (The Trigger): A signal is never generated based on timing alone. Once the timing condition is met (the cycle is "due"), the indicator waits for a final price-action confirmation. The default confirmation is the RSI entering an extreme overbought or oversold zone, signaling momentum exhaustion. The signal is only triggered when Time + Price Confirmation align.
How to Use This Indicator
- The Dashboard: The panel in the bottom-right corner is your command center.
- Market Regime: Shows the current market personality analyzed by the engine.
- Adaptive Cycle / Bar Count: This is the core of the indicator. It shows the target cycle length for the current regime (e.g., 50) and the current bar count since the last swing point (e.g., 45). The background turns orange when the bar count enters the "due zone," indicating that you should be on high alert for a reversal.
- BUY/SELL Signals: A label appears on the chart only when the two primary conditions are met:
The timing is right (Bar Count has reached the Adaptive Cycle target).
The price confirms exhaustion (RSI is in an extreme zone).
A BUY signal suggests a downtrend cycle is likely complete, and a SELL signal suggests an uptrend cycle is likely complete.
Key Settings
- Pivot Lookback: Controls the sensitivity of the swing point detection. Higher values will identify more significant, longer-term cycles.
- Market Regime Engine: The ADX, Choppiness, and RSI settings can be fine-tuned to adjust how the indicator classifies the market's personality.
- Require Price Confirmation: You can toggle the RSI confirmation on or off. It is highly recommended to keep it enabled for higher-quality signals.
Daily Seasonality Strength + Prediction TableDaily Seasonality Strength + Prediction Table
Return Estimates:
This indicator uses historical price data to calculate average returns for each day (of the week or month) and uses these to predict the next day’s return.
Seasonality Strength:
It measures seasonality strength by comparing predicted returns with actual returns, using the inverse of MSE (higher values mean stronger seasonality).
supports up to 10 assets
This script is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. I am not a financial advisor. Any decisions you make based on this indicator are your own responsibility. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The value of the instruments may fluctuate and is not guaranteed
