Polymarket 15m BTC Probability [10x]This indicator is a specialized quantitative tool designed for trading 15-minute Bitcoin Binary Markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi, or high-frequency binary options).
Unlike standard technical analysis which relies on past price patterns, this script utilizes Micro-Temporal Density Collapse Theory. It models the 15-minute candle not as a trend, but as a binary derivative subject to Brownian Bridge dynamics, calculating the mathematical probability of the outcome based on Time to Expiry and Volatility.
The Math: Micro-Temporal Density CollapseIn ultra-short duration binary markets, the token price is almost entirely a function of the Standardized Distance to Strike. This script implements a real-time Probability Engine using the Normal Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) via the Abramowitz & Stegun approximation for the Error Function (erf).
How to Use
Timeframe: Set chart to 1 minute. Symbol: COINBASE:BTCUSD (or the specific index your market uses). Application: Use the Fair Value to spot mispricing (e.g., if the Script says 60% probability but the market is trading at 80 cents, the contract is overpriced). Use the Ghost Overlay to visualize the macro trend without leaving the 1m execution chart.
Settings Volatility Lookback: Length of the ATR/StDev calculation (Default: 15).
Visuals: Toggle the Ghost Candles and HUD on/off.
Indicatore Pine Script®






















