[02/03] AAPL GEX Outlook for February expiration

3 feb

While iPhone sales faced some challenges, Apple’s diversified revenue streams and high-margin services business continue to showcase the company’s resilience. The stock initially reacted positively after earnings, but the broader market disagreed during open hours, leading to a sell-off on Friday.

Now, let’s analyze the GEX chart together. For AAPL , I’ve chosen the First Monthly Expiration (Febr 21), as multiple high gamma exposure expirations align with this date. Since we trade stocks and ETFs over a broader timeframe, rather than day trading, this is the most relevant perspective.

Key GEX Levels & Market Implications

📌 Uncertainty Below 250
Friday’s sell-off and today’s premarket action have weakened the outlook.

GAMMA FLIP ZONE:
AAPL is currently in the 230-237.5 Transition Zone, meaning price action can shift quickly in either direction.

📌 Break Below 230?

A move below 230 would open the door to 220.

📌 Put Support at 220

Implied volatility (IV) remains high, making this an attractive setup for a potential neutral post-earnings trade.

With a 220-250 range, we remain well inside the OTM 16-delta zone for March expiration, which is ideal for premium selling strategies for high IV.

PS: FINAL GEX ZONE COLORING SHEET

10 feb

Nota

Apple shares behaved much like many stocks do after earnings: they traded sideways throughout last week.



Note the pricing skew differs across expirations!

Until February, the AAPL 0.00%↑ skew is slightly negative, implying the market views a potential drop as more likely—or at least more rapid—than a bounce. In other words, traders are protecting themselves by going long puts. The main strike is quite clear, setting our put support level through February at the 220 strike, which also marks the lower boundary of the negative GEX range.

The HVL has remained at 230 for the past week without any movement.

Personally, I played the usual post-earnings strategy targeting sideways action through March.