AAPL - Short it for 6 months
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Macro factors: The FED's QT is starting to have an effect on the risk assets. The short answer is why be overweight in high risk assets when extremely low risk assets are becoming more appealing by the day. Money will continue to flow out of equities and into Treasuries for the foreseeable future. If it leads to a serious correction or crash the FED will of course back off the gas pedal. All the big pensions and funds are overweight equities because of QE, zero rates, and corporate tax cuts which were converted into stock buybacks. The market is overdue for a hangover. The market cycle is ending. Recession is less than 18 months away.
AAPL Catalysts: Fundamentally the growth rate has changed. Obfuscating the sales numbers on their last earnings call is a huge warning sign for the future growth of this company. Smart money is reducing their position in AAPL for at least the next 6-12 months. FOXCONN has been alerted to reduce iphone productions 25%+ going into 2019. AAPL has up till now performed extremely well with high growth rates and stock buybacks that have levitated the stock but the party is over. Expect AAPL to pull back hard over the coming weeks and months. My target for AAPL is $130 back to the 2009 trend-line.
TA: Like the market at large AAPL has formed large bearish divergences on monthly charts and is overbought on longer timeframes. This plus the macro factors and the growth rate of the company slowing is going to lead to quite the correction for this equity and the equity markets in general.
AAPL Catalysts: Fundamentally the growth rate has changed. Obfuscating the sales numbers on their last earnings call is a huge warning sign for the future growth of this company. Smart money is reducing their position in AAPL for at least the next 6-12 months. FOXCONN has been alerted to reduce iphone productions 25%+ going into 2019. AAPL has up till now performed extremely well with high growth rates and stock buybacks that have levitated the stock but the party is over. Expect AAPL to pull back hard over the coming weeks and months. My target for AAPL is $130 back to the 2009 trend-line.
TA: Like the market at large AAPL has formed large bearish divergences on monthly charts and is overbought on longer timeframes. This plus the macro factors and the growth rate of the company slowing is going to lead to quite the correction for this equity and the equity markets in general.
Nota
You can see we've bounced off the weekly 200 MA and now are finding overhead resistance. Expect us to drip back down...consolidate and then dump to $190 range...consolidate again and then dump to $165 liquidity pool range from there it's anyone's guess. But my money is on lower as I believe macro factors will take the most of the market lower.Nota
Dumped to $193 should still decline to around $190 but may chop around here for a bit depends on larger macro market conditions. Once it breaks below $184 expect selling to accelerate with some resistance along the way to it's first destination around $140. Will re-asses at that point.Nota
This was a fantastic short. We may have found a short term bottom. FAANG and NDX market very oversold for the most part. RSI's on daily and weekly are in the extreme oversold levels and prices have been holding up so expecting a rally...possibly a prolonged multi-week rally from here.Nota
We got our bounce...and now have confirmed the long term trend-line as resistance. We're very oversold now...even on weekly time-frames so at some point this should bounce harder perhaps off $150. I won't be longing yet anyway bc macro and indexes all look like they may start to crash.
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