Estimated Tothemoon Model. $150K in 2022

23 mag 2019

Welcome to advanced Tothemoon analysis!

Well I did something) The estimated Tothemoon model.
This is an example of how you can use the fundamental Bitcoin metrics along with simple proportions and drawings. And without any H&S, gartleys and butterflies. Okay, I'll tell you briefly what I've done.

Used tools:
1) Cost per Transaction (/Tx, miners revenue divided by the number of transactions)
2) The blue line represents Bitcoin's ATH price
3) The black line represents ATH /Tx mapped to the corresponding price on the chart
4) Bitcoin Halvings (the dates are shifted because the time scale doesn't contain such dates)

I made several conclusions that may seem obvious, but still:

• ATHs of the /Tx and price happened at the same time.
  
  
• /Tx starts to decrease after a new ATH price was reached.
  
  
• A new /Tx peak will happen in the middle of 2022.
  
  
• The ATH-to-ATH price movement can give about 600%. Each new ATH-to-ATH gain is approximately one-third of the previous gain.
  
  
• The price starts to grow up after each halving.
  
  
• The price crosses its ATH levels after each halving.
  
  
• So, we cannot be sure that the previous ATH of 20K will be reached before the 3rd halving will happen.
  
  
• The periods that are needed to pass ATH levels after each halving look like an arithmetic progression. For the 1st halving it was about 4 months, for the 2nd - 8 months. Thus, for the 3rd it can be 12 months.
  
  
• The 3rd halving's growth will be 900-1000% approximately.
  
  
• We can expect approximately a 2-year growth after the 3rd halving.
  
  
• According to the model the price can drop again in the nearest months of 2019.
  
  
• And then it will continue to approach the ATH /Tx level. There can play positive news about Bakkt and ETFs.
  
  
• Bitcoin will reach 100K in 3 years.
  
  
• The estimated target at the end of the 3rd halving cycle is 150K.
  

You can see all of this on the chart.

Good luck and Happy Trading!